The ball is flying out of ballparks near you at an alarming rate if you’re a starting pitcher. If you’re a fan of the game you likely don’t mind too much, as it’s been my experience that most folks enjoy and 8-7 game way more than a 2-1 pitching duel. Whether the ball is juiced or not, the fact is that there have been a whole lotta balls reaching the seats in the early going. Ray Flowers will take a look at some of the numbers that standout to this point of the big-league season in relation to the home run.
HOMER TO FLY BALL RATIO
Let’s do a quick history lesson first.
The highest homer to fly ball ratio in league history was 13.7 percent in 2017.
Last season, the league HR/FB was 12.7 percent. That was the third highest mark of all-time.
This season the mark is way up at would-be record level of 14.6 percent.
Last season one man had a 30 percent HR/FB ratio as Christian Yelich had the third 35 percent season on record.
Only eight men last season, with a minimum of 300 plate appearances, posted a mark of 25.0 percent.
Any deviation from a player’s baseline mark of more than five percent deserves further investigation.
Finally, the HR/FB ratio stabilizes over time. Using a rolling three-year cycle gives you a solid idea of what to expect in year four.
There are currently 17 players with a mark of 30.0 percent.
There are 24 men with a mark of 25.0 percent.
Joey Gallo has a 50 percent HR/FB ratio. He’s got a ton of power, but you know the drill here – massive reduction is coming (his career mark is 30 percent which is already massive). Same has to be said with Cody Bellinger (42.9) and Christian Yelich (40.0) – regression. Bellinger has been at 25.2 and 15.2 percent the last two seasons. Yelich is a completely different hitter at this point. The last two seasons he’s posted identical 2.20 GB/FB ratios. This year, the mark is 0.94. The last two seasons his fly ball rate has been 24 percent. This year the mark of 43 percent. Pretty sure this is a small sample size thing with Yelich. Remember, no one who has ever lived has posted a mark of 40 percent.
There have only been three seasons of 35 percent. There are currently three others, in addition to what’s listed above, that are at the level: Joc Pederson (38.5), Aaron Judge (35.7) and Yasmani Grandal (35.3).
All of those six men will have their HR/FB regress, substantially in most cases.
Jay Bruce has nine homers and a 28.1 percent HR/FB rate. He has an absurdly low 0.28 GB/FB ratio. He has no shot to hit .250 with that many fly balls. He might not his .230 unless things change.
Byron Buxton has a .209 ISO, well above the league average, and his 92.9 mph exit velocity is borderline elite. Buxton also has a massive 53 percent fly ball ratio, yet he somehow has no homers. His career HR/FB mark is 10.4, and in 2016-17 the mark were 13.5 and 14.2 percent. The homers will come.
Matt Carpenter hist a career best 36 homers last season with a 0.56 GB/FB ratio and a 19.1 percent HR/FB rate. This season, early on, Carpenter has a 0.37 GB/FB ratio but his HR/FB ratio has dropped to 8.6 percent. The mark has been at least 12.2 percent each of the past four seasons.
Nick Castellanos has dealt with injury, and he has no homers despite a 0.79 GB/FB ratio. Improvement is coming. Ditto with Justin Turner (1.13 GB/FB). Turner’s launch angle is down at 14.1 percent, the mark has been over 16.5 percent the last three years. The number should rise with at-bats.
Khris Davis has 10 home runs. His current mark of 28.6 percent is the lowest of the five men with at least 10 homers. His mark has been between 24.1 and 26.9 percent each of the past four seasons.
Yandy Diaz has six homers. He is at 1.90 in the GB/FB category. No player with a mark that high has more than four homers. Diaz will have to lift the ball more if he hopes to maintain the homer pace.
Eddie Rosario has 10 homers. His HR/FB rate the last two seasons, combined, is 28.4 percent. The current rate is 28.6 percent.
Tommy Pham has a 26.7 percent HR/FB ratio. However, he has only four homers as his GB/FB ratio is a large 2.93. That’s gonna make it hard to hit 20+ homers, though he’s never been a big fly ball guy not once reaching 30 percent in his career.
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FLY BALL DISTANCES
Trevor Story led baseball last year with an average homer distance of 422 feet.
Only six men averaged 415 feet.
Only 12 men averaged 410 feet.
Currently, we’re seeing some massive numbers that, even if the ball were juiced, simply have to pull back. There is a whole lot of sample size stuff going on here meaning, when we’re judging a handful of home runs, a handful of great swings, we can get misleading information.
David Dahl is at 446 feet, the MLB leader.
There are four others at 430 or more feet: Marwin Gonzalez, Brian Goodwin, Logan Forsythe and Josh Bell.
Overall, 15 guys are at 425 feet.
Thirty-one men are at 420 feet.
Forty-five men are at 415 feet.
Sixty-four are at 400-feet.
As for the ball being juiced, here are a couple of places to look if you want to do some research.
Early home-run explosion has some thinking the baseballs might be juiced again.
The ball is flying in Triple-A.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
