Ray talks about the burgeoning young star of the Astros – Yordan Alvarez. He also touches on the Cardinals’ outfield logjam, the lost swing of Bradley, the return of Murphy to the Rockies and what the Reds and Rockies are doing in the outfield. On the hill, Brett Anderson is hurt again. Gio Gonzalez is now a Brewer. Sonny Gray is rounding into form, ditto Jose Quintana, though Pineda is vanishing from importance. E-Rod has a new pitch, Samardzija looks better, Turnbull might be a sell high candidate, and how in the heck if Trevor Williams doing it?
HITTERS
Yordan Alvarez of the Astros has been a monster (.333-10-26-16 with a 1.320 OPS in 18 games). When will he be called up? “We’ll have to wait and see when the right time is,” Luhnow said. “He’s working on his defense right now and making sure he can play at least an average left field if he comes up here, because we’re going to need him to play in the field. The bat seems to be the carrying tool for him and the power is there.” Sounds like we’re talking the second half of the season – or at least mid-June (Super 2 status) – baring an injury need.
Harrison Bader is active after missing 10-days with a hamstring issue (he pinch hit Wednesday). Let the logjam ensue in the Cardinals lineup. Marcell Ozuna plays every day in the left field. Bader’s overall game and youth figures to have him in the lineup nearly every day. Dexter Fowler has been amazing to start the year (.310/.395/.423), so where does that leave Jose Martinez? In trouble for playing time one would think, especially when Tyler O’Neill is ready to return from his elbow issues (which appears likely to happen within days). The fact is that the Cardinals have five outfielders that should be starting every day. Martinez continues to mash with a .344/.359/.443 slash line, but there’s no spot in the daily lineup for him. He has a .975 OPS in his career against lefties and should be a must start when the Cards face one, but against righties it will likely be hit or miss despite a .307/.362/.450 career line.
Jackie Bradley changed his swing to incorporate more launch angle this offseason. To date, the change has had catastrophic results.
Daniel Murphy (hand) has been activated from the DL. His return likely pushes Ryan McMahon to second base with Garrett Hampson losing playing time. If Hampson doesn’t start hitting, and soon, he could be sent to the minors.
Scott Schebler started 13-of-15 games to start the year for the Reds. After starting Wednesday on the bench, that’s 3-of-8 starts for the outfielder who has struggled immensely in the early going. With Matt Kemp on the disabled list, not being in the lineup bodes very poorly for Schebler. With Nick Senzel back to playing in the minors, a call up to the big leagues is likely measured in weeks, which is further bad news for Schebler. In 10/12 team leagues Schebler can easily be dropped, and it’s hard to envision many scenarios in 15-team mixed leagues where he should be held on to.
Raimel Tapia is surging, and Ian Desmond is still listing a long a wee bit. Desmond didn’t play Wednesday, and he’s been dealing with some leg issues, but he has started to come around a bit hitting .250 with seven RBI and a .182 ISO mark the last 13 games with just eight strikeouts. However, Tapia is surging big time, flashing his athleticism all over the diamond. Tapia had two doubles, three RBI and a walk Wednesday, and in 61 plate appearances he’s hitting .281 with a robust .596. Alas, he doesn’t have that level of pop in his bat, and the .328 OBP he currently has isn’t ideal, though it’s certainly a passable number given what Desmond has done in the recent past. It’s too early to say that Tapia has supplanted Desmond, we don’t know if Desmond is fully healthy and he still has skills, but this scenario suggests that you should be adding Tapia in your mixed leagues.
Did the murderer of President Lincoln get away?
PITCHERS
Brett Anderson (ankle) threw a bullpen on Wednesday and it seems like he will be ready to go for the A’s Friday against the Blue Jays. The ankle is an obvious warning. You know he will end up on the IL, likely soon, when you realize that the last time he threw 100-inning was 2015. That’s the only season in eight years he’s hit that mark by the way. He’s effective when starting, but there are no strikeouts to speak of (5.3 per nine his last 22 starts).
Gio Gonzalez signed a 1-year, $2 million deal with the Brewers (he can earn up to $4 million in total). Gonzalez made three starts in the minors, and though he was bombed in his first outing, he was dominant the last two allowing two earned runs with 18 strikeouts over 11 innings. As pointed out by Adam McCalvy, the Brewers are the only team in the National League who has been averaging less than five innings per game from their starter, and they don’t use The Opener, and their starters were last in the NL in ERA as well (a horrific 5.84). The Brewers have Jimmy Nelson and Freddy Peralta injured, and Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes haven’t appeared ready. The addition of Gio likely means that Peralta or Woodruff ends up in the pen this season, that is if Nelson can prove worthy of taking the ball every five games. That said, Gio hasn’t pitched since April 14th, so he may still need a start or two before his promotion to the Brewers rotation. He’s a streaming option in mixed leagues, but a must add in NL-only setups.
If this can happen, why doesn’t my iPhone work?
Sonny Gray has a 37.7 percent hard hit ball rate, slightly below his 38.4 percent mark the last four years. He’s got a massive 11 per nine K mark, he won’t hold on to that, not with a 10.4 percent swinging strike rate that is slightly below his rate the last two seasons. It’s also unlikely he will retain that 2.19 BB/9 rate unless he does a much better job early in the count as he’s thrown less than half his first pitches for strikes. That’s five starts of three earned runs or less, just two walks in four outings, and back-to-back games of nine strikeouts. He’s back to being useful in mixed leagues.
Michael Pineda allowed five runs his first three starts. He’s allowed 10 his last two outings as his hot start has quickly devolved as he’s become… himself, an untrustable fantasy option.
Jose Quintana is back on the horse as they say. After so many of you wanted to bail on him after his disastrous effort against the Brewers (8 ER in 3 IP), he’s allowed three walks, permitted two runs and struck out 25 batters over three consecutive seven inning outings.
I wish I was this lucky.
Eduardo Rodriguez learned a new pitch… from Dustin Pedroia. The slider, which honestly was learned from Pedroia, could help to take Rodriguez’s game to the heights so many expected his performance to reach, or it could be just another reason to get excited before ultimately becoming disappointed with the enigmatic lefty.
Jeff Samardzija has returned from a horrible effort last season to the realm of being usable in mixed leagues. The Giants’ righty has made five starts posting a 3.00 ERA and an 8.00 K/9 rate. He’s been fortunate with a 78 percent left on base rate, and that .260 BABIP is a bit low (career .294). The owner of a 44 percent ground ball rate in his career, that mark dropped to a scary low-level last season at 30 percent. Hoping it was a one off hasn’t been a dream realized as the mark this season is just 31 percent. A sample size issue? Perhaps, but building on last seasons work, it’s concerning. Samardzija has thrown his fastball 20 percent less this year than in his career, and he’s jacked up his cutter usage tremendously from four percent of his pitches last season to 28 percent this season. The cutter has a 1.95 wOBA right now, and if that pitch is actually legit, Samardzija will be an effective hurler this season. If it’s a sample size mirage, well, then he’s looking like a streaming option at home.
Spencer Turnbull has pitched very well for a rookie with a 2.77 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and a strikeout per inning in five outings for the Tigers. He doesn’t profile as a K per inning kind of arm, so you have to expect that number to regress (10.7 swinging strike rate), and when that starts to happen the ERA will certainly rise (he has a 4.45 SIERA and 4.49 xFIP). Basically, he’s pitched well for a rookie, and his fantasy owners, but you just can’t count on this level of production moving forward. It would be wise to see if you can entice someone to deal with you when it comes to the righty of the Tigers.
Trevor Williams keeps getting outs as the anti-statistical guy. Williams continues to have relatively middling sign posts (3.03 ERA, 1.14 WHIP over 36 starts), yet somehow, he keeps generating tons of success despite the fact that he really doesn’t impress (6.55 K/9, 2.72 BB/9, 1.12 GB/FB with a 4.67 SIERA and 4.54 xFIP). With all the rage about batted ball data, and all those advanced metrics we have to judge players, it’s fascinating to look at how things seem to work in Williams World as he’s no different than a guy like Mike Leake – yet still the success. The key seems to be an ability to miss the sweet spot of the bat, a talent that most think doesn’t really exist. He throws four pitches and moves the ball around the strike zone, but he offers nothing to impress. Despite that, his career hard-hit rate is 30.2 percent, an impossibly low total. Out of the 130 hurlers who had 50 batted ball events last season, Williams came in 28th. That’s a top fifth finish for a guy that shouldn’t be there, yet, there he is. I think SIERA/xFIP tell the story of who Williams is, I still think Mike Leake, despite the results we’re currently witnessing.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
