THE NFL DRAFT IS HERE! Beyond all the trades, player fits and excitement, there’s gambling to be done, and hopefully, this piece can give you a few ideas to bump ROI. While the NFL draft APPEARS to be an endless string of chaos, there’s a lot of historical information that begs to differ. Despite the constant debating over a players draft stock, there are principles for all positions that can help indicate what round players will be drafted. Between that, following headlines closely and doing individual research, it’s become clear some betting odds are exportable!
With that said, let’s take a look at some of the juiciest bets heading into Day 1 of the NFL draft.
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O/U 2.5 Wide Receivers Drafted in Round One: OVER
This wide receiver class has taken a lot of heat over the last couple of months, specifically from seasonal evaluators. The lack of consensus over who the best WR in the class is has created a lot of uncertainty. Considering this, it makes sense why the public would be panicking, and some even considering the idea of a zero WR round one. BLASPHEMY, I say! Between Marquise Brown (I don’t get it, but everyone else seems confident), DK Metcalf (Ran a 4.33 at 228 pounds, I don’t want to hear it, haters), N’Keal Harry, A.J. Brown and Parris Campbell, I’d be shocked if three of those prospects didn’t land in round one. It will be a sweat, none of those players will go in the top 10, and it will likely all come down to how the 20s and 30s shake out, but based on Historical comparable, Harry, Brown and Metcalf would be LOCKS in previous seasons. The order is going to come down to randomness, but placing money down on three of these prospects landing in round one has a lock feel to it.
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First Wide Receiver Drafted: N’Keal Harry +2000
That’s some SERIOUS juice on a player that has a strong argument for being the best prospect in the class. Harry hasn’t received the same interest from the NFL and scouting community that he did from the fantasy community, but his mix of fantastic size (listed at 6 foot 2 and 228 pounds) timed speed at the combine (90th percentile speed score), age (one of the youngest players in the 2019 class) and college production (3,033 career yards from scrimmage in a power five conference), there’s a large case for N’Keal Harry as a mid round one selection. The odds are with D.K. Metcalf (-155), as they should be, but if Metcalf gets past Washington at 15, first Seahawks selection is a prime Harry landing spot. As seen with RB Rashaad Penny in 2018, Seattle isn’t afraid to be contrarian with their early picks, and Harry did meet with them pre-draft. The best move would be to throw some units on both Metcalf and Harry, and hope chaos ensues.
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O/U 1 RB selected in Round One: UNDER
In all my years covering the draft, I’ve never seen a more bizarre draft stock than Josh Jacobs. Jacobs was a backup at Alabama, and never accumulated 1,000+ yards from scrimmage in a college season. Why is that important? Because no RB, in NFL history, has EVER (EVER!) gone in round one of the NFL draft without a college season with 1,000+ yards from scrimmage. Oh, well, he’s an elite athlete you say? Jacobs didn’t test at the combine! WHAT IS THE BASIS FOR HIM GOING IN ROUND ONE?! I don’t get it, but I’ve also come to grips with the fact that it could happen. Enough has been made of his ability on film that there’s clearly something to the idea of NFL teams liking him. Jacobs, based on the hundreds of RB profiles I’ve looked at since the 2000 draft, has a second or third round archetype when everything is added together. He gets the benefit of the doubt on production because of the quality of his teammates, and his odds at future success are high. But they’d be high in the second or third round as well. This hype train may end up landing him in Round one, but I’m betting on history here. There was a quiet rumbling of Memphis RB Darrell Henderson getting some looks as a late round one guy as well, but again, he doesn’t have a round one profile based on what I look at. With that said, Henderson is currently +3300 to be the first RB drafted, and if you’re into long shots, it’s something to think about.
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O/U 10.5 for Dwayne Haskins Draft Position: UNDER
I’ve been stubborn on this one since the start. Dwayne Haskins profiles like a top ten QB selection, and there’s nothing that’s happened throughout the process to change that evaluation. There’s a ton of QB-needy teams, and Haskins has been rumored to just about all of them. It wouldn’t be unprecedented if Haskins fell out of the top ten, so this is a little risky compared to the others, but between the Giants, Bengals, Redskins and Dolphins, it just seems like a matter of time before one of those teams trades up and/or drafts Haskins. A prolific QB from Ohio State with prototypical size, no red-flags and a cannon arm? Someone is signing up for that, and it’s worth pursuing that it will happen in the first third of round one.
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O/U 19.5 for Marquise Brown Draft Position: OVER
Brown weighed in at the combine at 166 pounds, didn’t test athletically and has been dealing with a foot injury for all of the pre-draft process. As with Jacobs, this would be a historically confusing outlier if Brown were to go in round one. That means nothing pertaining to how good he’ll be in the NFL, but from a draft position perspective, there’s no precedent for this, in the modern or pre-modern era. Tavon Austin is the small WR used to decipher if Brown is a logical first-round projection, but Austin weighed in at the combine at 174 and has played most of his career at 179. DeSean Jackson is another great comparison that gets thrown around, but the thing about DeSean Jackson is… HE WASN’T A FIRST ROUND PICK. Brown is a tantalizing prospect, and maybe Tyreek Hill (on the field) has made NFL teams re-evaluated how valuable an elite, speed-based field stretcher can be in the context of positional value. Heck, hats off to Brown if he does, it just seems like blasphemy to project that type of outlier. Anyhow, Brown did put together a nice production profile over the last two seasons at Oklahoma and pretty clearly has elite game speed. This will be the closest watched prop of day one of this guy.
