Sale looked better. Not great, but better. Foltynewicz and C-Mart are closing in on a return to the bigs. Arrieta looks good on the surface, but… Bassitt looked sharp for the A’s. Godley is trying to find his curveball. Happ has turned things around a bit of late. Brad Keller and his suspension. Minor has pitched well. Chirinos/Pagan/Snell/Yarbrough of the Rays’ are highlighted. Ray closes things out trying to figure out what the hell the Reds are doing with Jessie Winker.
TWO YOUNG VETS – GOING IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS
Mike Foltynewicz (elbow) appears likely to return to the starting rotation for the Braves on Saturday. The team has been patient with his recovery, and they will hope that from this point forward he will be the pitcher that they saw last season. I have my doubts. See his Player Profile.
Carlos Martinez (shoulder), he of the multi-time 195 inning pitched seasons and three years of 170+ strikeouts, will return to the Cardinals in a relief role. With Jordan Hicks pitching well in the 9th inning, this is distressing news for C-Mart owners who were hoping for a triumphant return to the starting rotation. If you’ve been waiting on a return, like I have, might as well move on at this point unless you wanna just keep him on the DL and hold out hope that they change their mind as he has little to get excited about as a middle reliever.
ON THE HILL
Jake Arrieta has a 2.65 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He hasn’t pitched to those numbers though. Arrieta has a poor exit velocity of 89.4 mph that is elevated compared to the recent past (87.3 mph or lower the last four years). His hard-hit rate of 37.5 percent is five percent higher than the mark has been the last two years. His K-rate is 18.4 percent which is the lowest it has been since 2012. Meanwhile, the walk rate is at 9.6 percent which would tie a five-year high and its well above his 8.4 percent career mark. The results if a hideous 1.92 K/BB ratio that is light years from the league average. He also has a poor xwOBA of .340 (it’s been .312 or lower the last four years). The fact is that he’s not pitching well, has been aided by an impossibly high 84.8 percent left on base rate and incredibly low BABIP of .239.
Chris Bassitt was nails in his first start for the A’s tossing five shutout innings at the Rangers. He even struck out seven, though that luster was dulled by his total of four walks. It’s hard to get too excited though as the A’s have so many potential options in the rotation. Jesus Lazardo (see Prospect Watch) and Jharel Cotton are coming back from injury in the future, as are Sean Manaea and Marco Estrada. The club also has Edwin Jackson and Daniel Mengden floating around. Much like the Braves, there are a ton of options for the A’s. Bassitt had a 4.30 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and a 3.32 K/BB ratio in 18 Triple-A outings last season and he owns the talent to start, or relieve in the bigs. Thinking he’s likely to settle in as the long man out of the pen who can make spot starts.
Zack Godley didn’t do much to excite anyone last year, but he rode that curveball of his to 185 punchouts in 178.1 innings. Through five starts this season the K/9 rate is down to 7.33, two full batters off where the rate was last season, and with all those walks he always seems to give up, he’s doomed unless the number comes up. His swinging strike rate is down 0.9 percent from last season at 10.6 percent, and that’s way off his 12.0 percent career mark, and it must come back up. Last year the curve, his best pitch, had a .244 wOBA and a 2,178 spin rate. This year the marks are .299 and 2,081. Unless the curve improves, he’s in trouble.
J.A. Happ is coming off his second quality start in a row, his best outing of the season. He’s upped his slider usage from 13 percent to 22 percent while knocking 10 percent off his fastball rate (down to 49.5 percent). The fastball, by the way, has been mashed to the tune of a massive .489 wOBA (last year it was .301). He’s velocity is down about a mph, keep an eye on that, but it should be noted that his spin rate is unchanged the last five seasons, and three times in four years the wOBA on the pitch has been under .305, so I’m willing to cut him some slack given his slow start, even at 35 years of age, as it seems like the stuff is pretty close to where it has been, the results just haven’t been there yet.
Brad Keller has dropped his appeal so he will serve his 5-day suspension for throwing at Tim Anderson. Through six starts he’s struck out just 7.05 strikeouts per nine, a terrible mark which is worsened by his walk rate (4.86 per nine). His SIERA (5.28) and xFIP (4.89) speak more to how he has looked than his raw ERA (3.41) does.
Mike Minor allowed four runs last time out pushing him to six runs allowed over four outings. Minor has gone at least six innings his last four starts, and he’s allowed five or fewer hits in all of his outings (four homers). The walk rate is a bit up at 2.94 per nine, and his hard-hit ball rate of 38 percent is 3.2 percent higher than last season. He continues to be what he was drafted to be – someone you can turn to every turn through the rotation who likely won’t hurt your ratios.
Chris Sale allowed two runs over five innings against the Tigers Tuesday as he struck out 10 batters. Sale wasn’t close to his best needing 97 pitches to get the five innings of outs against a poor defense, but his slider looked the best is has all season long (24 called strikes and 14 swings and misses, though just two on the fastball, matching his season long mark coming in). His fastball sat at 93-94 mph for the most part, but he hit 96 on occasion. “I felt that he was better than (his last start), as far as command. The change-up was OK,” manager Joey Cora said. “Besides that, he got swings and misses today, so that was a good step.” Sale has walked five batters in four outings so he’s moving in the right direction, and the 16 strikeouts his last 10 innings are extremely encouraging. We’re not totally out of the woods yet, but our compass is working and we’re heading for the mouth of the trail.
RAYS NEWS
Yonny Chirinos has made five appearances though only three starts. In those five outings he’s average five innings pitched (25.1 in total). After a season with a launch angle under 10 percent, the mark is way up this season at 16.8 percent. That has led to five homers allowed already as his 1.36 GB/FB ratio from last season has dipped to 0.82 this season. Chirinos will need to turn around those ground ball and fly ball trends because those extra fly balls are going to result in many a ball in the seats. His career 11.1 swinging strike rate is just above the 10.7 percent league mark last season, but he’s also nearly a full batter below the league K/9 rate with a mark of 7.59. Not enough missed bats at the moment further illustrates the need to get the ball down more.
The Rays bullpen is causing us all kinds of heartache. Emilio Pagan has earned a save in back-to-back outings, both the last two days. So much for that job being solely in possession of Jose Alvarado.
Blake Snell (broken toe) has a bit surprisingly been activated after missing the minimum 10 days. He will start against the Royals Wednesday. There is no pitch count, but Ryan Yarbrough is available in support.
WHAT ARE THE REDS DOING?
Jesse Winker is on pace for more than 40 homers, but he’s been bad to start the season. No way around that fact, he’s just been a slow starter. He has only walked five times in 22 games, a low mark indeed, though his 16.7 percent K-rate is a point and a half about his career rate, so he’s not been swinging and missing without a clue. There is still plenty of time for him to regain that offseason luster, and my faith in him remains. Therefore…
What in the hell are the Reds doing?
Tuesday, Winker hit third in the lineup. He came up with the bases loaded in the 6th inning… and was removed for Phil Ervin because there was a lefty on the hill (this after the Braves challenged him directly by walking Eugenio Suarez to bring up Winker). (1) Winker isn’t great against lefties with a terrible .178 batting average in 90 at-bats. (2) Removing him was/is/will always be – idiotic, but that’s baseball for you in 2019. Screw logic – who removes a #3 hitter in the sixth inning of a game – or the fact that Winker is a building block of the franchise. Let’s play Spreadsheet Baseball for a team that is 9-13 and in last place in the NL Central. Let’s not give our guy a chance to improve, to grow, to build confidence. No. Let’s pull out an abacus, further frustrate a player who has struggled, and see if we can more directly tell him that we really don’t believe in him. I just don’t get it.
Note, that Winker stood at the top of the dugout stairs cheering after Ervin drew a walk to force in a run. At least someone in Cincinnati gets it.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
