Bullpen Usage & Reliever Ratings, or BURR, is an idea that Flowers and Mans have been playing around with since the 2017 season. The reason for their focus is simply that bullpens are a more important part of the modern game than ever before. You know what we mean. Whereas at one time starting pitchers threw 220 innings, then 200… now 180 is the new baseline for upper end hurlers. Starting pitchers just don’t deep into games any more. Plenty of teams are using The Opener, further limiting the innings out of the starting rotation. The facts are obvious to all. Starting pitchers simply do not eat up as many innings as they used to.
Unfortunately, despite that fact, not enough people have taking that into account. That’s not how we’re going to roll at Fantasy Guru in 2019. We are going to continue to be ahead of the curve. Each week we will update our bullpen ratings giving you the best way to attack, or avoid, bullpens while setting your fantasy baseball lineup in the DFS game or in the season long setup.
WHAT IS BURR?
BURR takes into account 14 different categories for bullpens. For more detail on why BURR is needed and what goes into it, click on the link to the Introduction page.
HOW TO READ BURR
Under 1.00 = Any number under the league average is a negative for the bullpen and a positive for the batter. Any number under 1.00 is a bullpen to attack for the offense.
1.00 = The league average
Above 1.00 = Any number above the league average is a positive for the bullpen and a negative for the batter. Any number above 1.00 is a bullpen to avoid for the offense.
THE HIGHER THE NUMBER THE BETTER THE BULLPEN AND THE WORSE IT IS FOR THE BATTER.
THE 2019 SEASON
Here are the baseline numbers to this point of the 2019 season.
|
League |
wOBA |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
ISO |
HR/FB |
GB/FB |
|
2019 |
.318 |
.246 |
.321 |
.424 |
.179 |
14.6 |
1.16 |
Below, there will be three colors of Red, White, and Green. Here is what each color designation represents.
RED: A bullpen to avoid meaning the bullpen is doing great in that category.
WHITE: A moderate, not moving the needle aggressively in either direction, unit.
GREEN: A bullpen to target with your batters as the arms are failing in that category.
We will normally be removing the homer column when looking at two-week segments. They are included here for the sack of thoroughness since the season is still in its infancy. Any number listed in YELLOW is a number that was artificially dropped to 1.50 (meaning, any HR/9 or HR/FB number over 1.50 was knocked back down to 1.50 because a huge number would give them a massive, and inaccurate, BURR total). The homer component of the formula is extremely tricky when looking at small sample sizes.
The Astros continue to have a dominant pen, highlighted by their lack of innings as the starters are giving them a ton of depth.
The Angels, Athletics and Giants have been remarkable at limiting the home run. The Giants have allowed 0.56 homers per nine, an unsustainable pace.
The Cubs own a 2.40 GB/FB ratio. The next closest team is the Giants at 1.66.
The Giants and Astros are at the top of the heap when it comes to bullpens. The Giants have been monsters in the homer department, allowing a mere 0.56 homers per nine, a tremendous mark. They have also been stupendous in the GB/FB category with a 1.66 mark, second best amongst bullpens behind the Cubs who have a massive 2.40 mark.
The Reds, Athletics and Giants (as noted) have been tremendous in homers.
The Nationals starters are going deep in games, saving the pen from tossing innings. The Orioles/Rays are using their bullpens a ton. Of course, that’s more indicative of issues with the Orioles than with the Rays who do the Opener thing frequently. That use of the bullpen is going to cause issues for the Rays in the inning category all year long. Speaking of the Nationals, they are elite in the usage and hard-hit ball rates. The rest of the measures show the bullpen to be listing a great deal, as overall, they have stunk. The Braves as well, injuries have been particularly damaging to them. The Royals – no closer, no bridge. The struggles of Leclerc in Texas is emblematic of the whole pen. The Orioles are being heavily taxed, and they are completely ineffective, highlighted by the massive homer beatings they have taken (2.34 homers per nine and a 21.7 HR/FB ratio).
The Giants, Dodgers and Astros haven’t been issuing free passes.
The Pirates are striking out a ton leading to an impressive SWIP, the best amongst bullpens. They also aren’t giving up many hard-hit balls. Holding them from an even higher ranking is a lot of fly balls. The Cardinals are also allowing too many fly balls which has resulted in terrible marks in the homer category which drops them into the bottom half of bullpens.
The Phillies lead the way at throwing a first pitch strike, and though we frequently are uncertain who is working the ninth inning, the group as a whole is performing very well.
