One of the most important indicators of future success for NFL prospects is draft position. If you’re skeptical of that fact, check this out. While where a player goes on draft day isn’t the be-all and end-all of their career, historical trends suggest the earlier a player is drafted, the higher their likelihood of NFL success will be. Considering that general rule, and considering things like Best Ball drafts and pre-draft rookie drafts create a need for foresight on rookies, projecting draft position in an accurate manner is valuable.
Finding accurate ways to evaluate prospects for the NFL draft isn’t an easy process, but it is possible. The NFL leaves behind a lot of clues pertaining to what they look for, and over three decades of drafts in the seven-round format, many trends have evolved. While there’s a lot of factors to account for, and injury/off-field red flags are sometimes impossible to register, it’s a plausible process. The general perception of the NFL draft is that a prospect’s stock shifts wildly throughout the months before the draft, but based on historical thresholds, this simply isn’t the case. A players value directly correlates to their production profile and how they test out athletically. While there are certainly nuance and differing scenarios, almost all factors are set after the combine. Two NFL teams may value a prospect in an incredibly different light, but over 32 teams, over seven rounds, over decades, there’s a balance.
The final tweaks are done, and it’s time to put the final draft together for projected draft position this season. This class has been a lot of fun and highly challenging. With that said, not much has changed since the last update. There’s a lot of rumors and “leaks” swirling in the media right now, but for these purposes, resumes for prospect evaluation are set in stone. Despite minimal movement in where players will be drafted, there’s a different layer that’s going to be added today!
PLAYER COMPARABLES
Prospect comparables are a prospect assessment that highlights a similar prospect that’s come along in the last two decades (Since the 2000 NFL draft class). This process is based on a players height, weight, speed, athletic testing, age, college career and production profile, along with where they’re projected to go in the NFL draft. This isn’t an exact science, and no player is a carbon copy of the other, but using historical thresholds to evaluate current draft classes can create a solid base for evaluation. Across each position (QB, RB, WR and TE), each player that is projected to be selected in the top three rounds of the NFL draft will have a comparable (or an N/A).
At certain points (Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray for example) there will be an “N/A” next to a prospects name in the comparable box. That means, when taking into account all factors, there simply isn’t a player worth comparing to them from a historical perspective. There are a few players every year that simply don’t fit into previously established profiles.
Also, these are fun to look at and fun to create, so let’s enjoy this, shall we?
One final thing. Another thing to notice is that all these comparables are not sunshine and rainbows. Some prospects will have comparables that simply didn’t play well or totally busted out of the NFL. Don’t fret if a favorite prospect is staring down the barrel of a bust. This does not mean anything more than they simply look similar from a full profile perspective. A lot of prospects end up busting out of the NFL for nontalent reasons.
QUARTERBACK
RUNNING BACK
WIDE RECEIVER
TIGHT END
