We had all kinds of worries about Gregory Polanco missing a good deal of the first half of the season. He returned months ahead of what we thought might be the case, so now we’re left to decide just who he will be in 2019. Moving to the hill, Ray will discuss Anderson/Freeland of the Rockies, Barria, Bieber, the injured Eovaldi (yet again), Gibson, Jon Gray, Reynaldo Lopez, McHugh, Ray, Richards and Dereck Rodriguez.
GREGORY POLANCO RETURNS
When first hurt we hoped that Gregory Polanco would return in the first half of the season from his shoulder injury. Then we heard perhaps June if everything went well. Then, there was some talk of a potential May return. Well, on April 22nd he returned, weeks (months) ahead of what anyone expected. Wow is right. Polanco’s first game back displayed his strong offensive game (a single, double, walk and two runs scored).
Long thought of as a 20/20 talent, Polanco got really close in 2016 with a 22/17 season. His overall game dipped the next season as he appeared in just 108 games, but he was back on is last season with a career best 23 homers before going down with injury. His launch angel went from 13 percent in 2016-17 to 19.9 percent last season, and there’s little doubt that if he can maintain that angle that he’s got a legit shot to consistently hit at least 25 homers a season (having stood next to him, it struck me just how massive a human being he was). Polanco also saw his walk rate go up significant last season, to a career best 11.4 percent, and that helped him to best his career OBP by .019 points (.340).
I really like this fella’s overall game. The question I have is will he be able to build upon, or at least sustain, the ability the lift the ball that he flashed last season? Coming back from that shoulder issue, the question will linger a bit about the strength in that wing of his, but he’s hit every bench post, blown past them really, in his speed recovery. I wouldn’t expect his overall level of production to much different, on a per plate appearances basis, from what we saw last season while noting that he is 27 years old and could have one more small level to his game.
ON THE BUMP
Tyler Anderson is coming off the DL for the Rockies, but his spot on the Injured List (sorry) will be taken by fellow hurler Kyle Freeland (blisters). has made five starts with a successful 1.19 WHIP and a surprising total of more than a K per inning. His swinging strike rate is up from 9.0 to 10.9 percent, but it’s still hard to see this game generating a K per inning. It should also be noted that three of five stats have been on the road, with two of those outings coming against the poor offenses of the Giants and Marlins. The hope is that Freeland will be able to return on April 29th.
Jaime Barria was a really solid AL-only option last season, and he could be again this year. However, his lack of swing and miss stuff throws his value in mixed leagues towards the streaming option angle. Just 22 years old, he’s thrown 142 big league innings with a league average 3.11 BB/9 and 1.14 HR/9 rate, and that 6.78 K/9 rate is just bad. Ditto the 0.86 GB/FB ratio. Again, just a streaming option.
Shane Bieber was annihilated the last time out (7 R, 5 ER over 2.1 IP). That’s likely to happen at times with Bieber whose fastball can be straight at times. He also throws “too many strikes” at times, and if he’s unable to get to advantageous accounts where he can unleash the slider, bad outings can follow. Still, the 3.47 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP with a K per inning paints the picture of a guy who is gonna be just fine.
A giant lion.
Nathan Eovaldi will miss 4-6 weeks to have surgery to remove a loose body from his elbow. Color me completely shocked. “By now, you know my reluctance to roster a pitcher who simply cannot stay on the field. I’m also not in the habit of paying up for a guy coming off a career season.” By the way, that was from his preseason Player Profile.
Kyle Gibson had six strikeouts, no walks and allowed two runs over six innings his last time out, his first outing where he looked like the guy who came out of nowhere last season to be a usable mixed league arm. Still, his GB/FB is there at 1.89, and his swinging strike rate is a direct match for last season at 11.5 percent. He’s not sexy, nor exciting, but there’s certainly steaming appeal in mixed leagues.
Jon Gray was called out by me. Seems like he took it personal. Gray is in lockdown mode allowing two runs his last three outings. Still, even with the success, there have been some issues as he has 16 strikeouts in 18.2 innings, a wee bit down, as he’s walked at least three guys each time out for a total of 10 walks in 18.2 innings, a horrible mark. He’s hard to hit, and can dominate anyone, but the walks need to be brought in check for him to take that step we all keep waiting for.
Reynaldo Lopez has allowed one homer the last two outings, both quality starts, as he’s struck out 13 batters over 12 innings. He’s brought the first pitch strike rate up to 60 percent which is passable, but that 9.5 percent swinging strike rate is going to make it difficult for him to maintain his nearly K per inning pace. He also owns a scary horrible 58 percent fly ball rate, a horrid mark for a guy who was already in a bad spot the last two seasons at 47 percent. There’s just too much fly ball action here.
Every son wants his dad’s frozen head.
Collin McHugh was rolling right along allowing a total of five runs his first four starts. Then, reality smacked him right in the face as he was blasted for 10 runs (nine earned) over 3.1 frames against the Rangers. He’s still allowed just three homers in five outings, has 28 Ks in 26.1 innings, and has walked just 2.73 batters per nine despite the beat down. If he were to maintain his overall pace, he would be a massive winner this season. I think that level is asking too much, but he’s still very likely to be a strong mixed league option as long as he can take the workload.
Robbie Ray has allowed one run in 2-of-3 outings, but he still owns a 3.95 ERA (4.64 xFIP). He’s also only struck out eight batters his last 12 innings in two starts. Through five outings he owns a 5.27 BB/9 rate with a hideous 52 percent first pitch strike rate. He’s been fortunate to have the overall performance he’s had to date with that number.
The devil, Loch Ness and a house.
Trevor Richards tossed his fourth quality start in five outings last time out against the Nationals. He did allow two big flies though it was a solid overall effort. He’s had some odd numbers to date through the order. The first time through batters have a .378 wOBA, the second time through .128, and the third time through .379. Crazy pants.
Dereck Rodriguez has made five starts for the Giants with a 3.54 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, this on the heels of a strong first season (2.81 and 1.00). Still, it’s hard to be overly bullish. He has struck out just 6.83 batters to date and that 1.09 GB/FB rate is just there. He’s a solid hurler, but there’s nothing standout-ish in his game. Also a bit concerned that a guy who owns a 57 percent career first pitch strike rate has walked just 2.52 batters per nine. Still thinking he’s a last guy on your staff kinda arm.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
