The NFL is built upon what college football provides. Every year, there’s a focus on incoming rookies and players who are going to make impacts for their new teams, but where did those players come from? What did they look like as underclassmen in college? How productive were they? The goal of this article is to help provide analysis that will improve readers ability to identify NFL players who are still in college. Each week, there will be four players evaluated and given an NFL projected draft position based on their current historical indicators.
There are many tidbits and clues the NFL leaves behind pertaining to what they’re looking for in an NFL Draft prospect. The basic strength, speed and athleticism are factors in building a skill position player, but it’s clear there’s more to it than that. When reviewing the NFL Draft over the last two decades, there’s statistical trends and traits NFL teams look for before selecting players as well. This article, which highlights players not yet draft eligible, will highlight those factors.
THE PROSPECTS
Salvon Ahmed (RB, Washington)
2019 NFL RB prospect Myles Gaskin leaves a large role behind at Washington, and based on his first two seasons, Ahmed could conceivably step into that role. After two years of working in spot-touch and back-up duty, Ahmed displayed enough ability in all facets to be considered, at the very least, the lead RB heading into the 2019 season. Ahmed has accumulated 199 touches in his first two seasons and could match that in this upcoming season alone. Ahmed is on the smaller side of things, listed at 5’11” and 195 pounds, but appears to have the explosive skill set to average that out, and also appears to have a body type to add weight. Ahmed will never be confused with a bigger back, but if he can get into the 200-to-205 pound range by the combine, there will be little-to-no limitations on his perception due to size. Ahmed thrives in the open field and has displayed exciting receiving ability in limited snaps. Ahmed steps into a Washington offense that will be looking for leaders, as not only will Gaskin be gone, but four-year starting QB Jake Browning is also headed to the NFL (sort of). Considering that, and considering the loss of WR depth they’ve suffered over the last couple of seasons (Bengals WR John Ross and 49ers WR Dante Pettis), it seems likely they’ll lean more on the running game than in years past.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: Round Three to Five – Ahmed has a lot of obstacles to overcome before guaranteeing himself a shot at being a day two selection, but he certainly has the potential ability and opportunity to prove himself. 2019 will determine a lot, and he could even find himself as an early entrant if he lands featured touches.
Similar Prospect(s): Bilal Powell, Duke Johnson
Jayden Reed (WR, Western Michigan)
It’s always nice when a player comes to fruition as a Freshman. Despite being very thin (listed at 6 feet and 170 pounds), Reed had no issues translating to the college game as a Freshman, leading Western Michigan in all major receiving categories, producing 56 receptions, 797 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. Reed displayed fantastic ball skills and an ability to make players miss in the open field. His speed and athleticism should be able to translate to the NFL game relatively easily. Reed still has a lot to prove considering the conference he’s playing in, and as a byproduct, the lack of quality defenses. But, this is a great start. Reed is looking towards being a featured weapon in a pass-first offense over the next two (at least) seasons and should be set up to have a solid-to-great production profile by the time things are all said and done. The real issue, for both his transition to the NFL and projecting draft position, is going to be his size. At his height, he should be able to get to 180 pounds by the combine, but if not, teams have historically let small school WRs under that weight fall in the draft.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: Round Three to Five – Weight, Weight, Weight. There’s a chance Reed could boost up boards with elite timed speed as well, but there tends to be a low projected draft position ceiling on this archetype.
Similar Prospect(s): Jerrel Jernigan, Jarett Dillard
Denzel Mims (WR, Baylor)
Mims is a player that got a lot of hype heading into the 2018 season, and in a lot of ways, reached those expectations. It was a bit strange to see he ultimately chose not to declare for the 2019 NFL draft, but that’s the choice he made. Mims burst onto the scene in 2017, leading Baylor in receiving yards with 1,087 and eight receiving touchdowns. 2018 was a little different, as the team welcomed transfer WR Jalen Hurd to the depth chart. Hurd ended up leading the team in receiving yards, and that certainly shifted some of the perception for Mims, who was viewed as a player that would ascend even further. Mims finished 2018 with 794 receiving yards and eight touchdowns on 55 receptions. 2019 should lead to more open lanes for Mims and much greater production. Between QB Charlie Brewer returning as the starter and Hurd heading to the NFL, there should be plenty of opportunity for Mims to produce. Sophomore WR Tyquan Thornton should land second on the team in receiving categories but doesn’t appear to be a threat in the way Hurd was. Mims is an athleticism-based prospect who thrives on downfield targets and after the reception.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: Round Two to Four – Mims has a wide range of outcomes, all with varying degrees of optimism. Mims is clearly a talented prospect with a lot of potential, and beyond round one, should have a reasonable shot at being drafted on day two (round two or three) in the 2020 NFL draft.
Similar Prospect(s): Justin Hunter, Mohamed Massaquoi
Kylin Hill (RB, Mississippi State)
Hill hasn’t received as many opportunities as he probably should’ve in his first two seasons in college football, but in 2018, there were plenty of signs pointing towards a special player. Hill had three games with 17 or more rushing attempts and had above 100 rushing yards in each of them. Hill was in a committee for most of 2018, but injuries opened up opportunities here and there which displayed what the future could hold for Hill s a prospect. Aeris Williams was the main RB blocking Hill from a featured role, and with him moving on after his senior season, it makes a lot of sense for Mississippi State to create a featured role for Hill in 2019. Hill is a solidly built (listed at 5 foot 11 and 215 pounds) RB who has a surprising second gear, specifically when reaching the second level.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: Round Two or Three – Hill has shown enough potential to trust he’ll be drafted in the top three rounds of the NFL draft, but among those rounds, there’s still variance. Hill has a lot of work to do still in 2019.
Similar Prospect(s): Ben Tate
