As we enter the offseason, there’s a new format that’s emerged over the last couple of seasons which has caught the attention of many. In fact, it’s the preferred way to play for a lot of fantasy football enthusiasts. Best Ball.
Between DRAFT, Fanball (BestBall10s) and a few other established sites, there’s plenty of variety and fun to be had. Lobbies are open, ADPs have been created, and values have emerged. The goal of this article is to identify players who are currently undervalued (or overvalued) and will provide depth in the later rounds of best ball drafts.
While the offseason is supposed to be the “down” part of the year, the NFL has truly become a 24 hour, 365 day a year sport. Between off-field issues, trades, rap videos and free agency/draft movement, even in the heart of April, there’s a lot of information to account for in the NFL. ADP was taken from April 1st to the 15th, so this information is fresh and represents some of the information that’s about to be written about.
RBs are the topic of discussion this week. There are many ways to attack the position from a fantasy sense, specifically in the middle rounds. This week will be focused on four mid-round RBs with reasonable opportunity, but also reasonable concerns.
VALUES
TJ YELDON, LESEAN MCCOY AND FRANK GORE (RB, BILLS) — ADP: *The Rock Voice* IT DOESN’T MATTER WHAT THEIR ADP IS
Yeldon signed a two-year contract with the Bills yesterday, further complicating a strange RB situation. Between McCoy and Gore, father time could strike at any moment, but they’re already special outliers in that sense and both of them falling apart seems unlikely. Yeldon is a talented, all-purpose weapon who can provide low-end RB1 numbers at his ceiling (RB8 through the first eight weeks of 2018), but getting that opportunity will be a real battle in 2019. His price is cheap, and seemingly worth a buy in the final rounds, but he’ll need two major injuries to become truly fantasy relevant. Considering the age of Gore and McCoy, don’t be totally shocked if they bring in a fourth RB via the draft in the late rounds. This could be an issue as well. As far as Gore and McCoy are concerned, they’re clear stay-aways as things currently stand. While McCoy has been a featured weapon (or at least went into the season that way) each of the previous five seasons, he’ll be entering his age 31 season and coming off an injury-riddled age 30 season. The touch distribution between these three is likely headed towards some type of committee, and it’s very unlikely to be a profitable situation from a best ball scenario.
JAMES WHITE (TE, PATRIOTS) — DRAFT ADP, 48.5; BESTBALL10s ADP, 50.7
White was obviously a late-round hero for all fantasy football formats in 2018 and left a positive feeling in the hearts of owners heading into the offseason. Despite some really concerning usage down the stretch, White remains a top 50 selection in early best ball drafts. The breakdown in terms of his weekly touches was clear, and once teammate RB Sony Michel returned from injury in Week 10, the offense went in a much different direction. White certainly has a nice weekly ceiling and will most certainly have productive weeks, but with Michel headed into his second season after being a first-round selection, and the way the Patriots have notoriously managed RB touches, it’s really hard to trust how White is going to impact things. Considering he’s going to be drafted around Rams WR Robert Woods, Redskins RB Derrius Guice, Buccaneers TE O.J. Howard and Rams WR Cooper Kupp, it’s really hard to justify his current price tag.
CHRIS CARSON (RB, SEAHAWKS) — DRAFT ADP, 51.3; BESTBALL10s ADP, 52.1
Carson is coming off one of the best seasons for a late round RB since 2000. Carson is one of only 5 RBs drafted in round seven of the NFL draft (since 2000) to have 1200 or more (1,314) yards from scrimmage (YFS) in a single season. What makes Carson’s 2018 season even more amazing is how he successfully defended his role from 2018 first round selection Rashaad Penny. Penny got hurt in preseason, but even when healthy later in the year, he could not nudge his way into a role that would affect Carson. RBs drafted in the seventh round tend to not sustain themselves, but 2018 was such a special outlier season (both from a production and beating out a high pedigree player for touches), that there’s reasonable logic behind believing Carson can continue to be an outlier. Again, the odds are against Carson. Since 2000, only Ahmad Bradshaw sustained himself for multiple 1,200+ Yards From Scrimmage seasons (2) as a RB selected in Round seven, but Carson is making a strong case to sustain his role. The best way to manage this situation is to get exposure to both Carson and Penny, splitting exposure and sometimes even drafting both on the same team. The Seahawks should continue to run the ball and use their RBs in a significant fashion, so high-volume games will present themselves to both.
LAMAR MILLER (RB, TEXANS) — DRAFT ADP, 76.6; BESTBALL10s ADP, 77.9
The death of Miller’s fantasy value has been something some fantasy owners have been waiting on for many years now, and those types of talks have never been louder than this offseason. Third-year RB D’Onta Foreman is almost two years removed from his torn Achilles injury, and the talk of the Texans addressing RB in the draft appears to be a foregone conclusion. Both are threats to Miller’s role and could be factors in finally knocking off his YFS pedestal. Miller has five straight seasons with 1,100+ YFS, which is currently the longest streak among active RBs (Gore had 12 seasons in a row before 2018). Miller isn’t a special player by any means, but he’s been able to stay healthy, avoid major injuries and has found himself sustaining a starting role for six seasons. Miller is only 27 years old, and there’s no reason to think, even if a player comes in and is taking touches, that he’ll be locked out of his starting role. Foreman was a top three round selection, and if (big if) he can return to pre-Achilles ability, there’s reason to believe Miller will be a limited fantasy asset. But that could also go the other way as well, where Foreman isn’t the same, like so many players to have Achilles injuries before him. If they draft a RB in the top three rounds of the 2019 NFL draft, there will be more concern for Miller, but that’s yet to happen and the Texans have a lot of needs beyond that position. All in all, Miller does have a reasonable amount of risk pertaining to his 2019 fantasy numbers, but that’s baked into his price. Talented players with starter experience over long periods of time tend to find ways to sustain themselves, and this could be a year where Miller, once again, figures out a way to be fantasy viable.
