SUNDAY UPDATES:
– Reynaldo Lopez pitching Sunday so it looks like it may be Manny Banuelos going Monday @ BAL and possibly going a second time over the weekend if he pitches well. He’s 28, walks too many guys and really never lived up to the hype from his Yankees prospects days. I’d probably pass on bidding him in 15-teamers unless desparate.
– Tyler Anderson (LH/COL) is back off the IL and should line up for two starts this week (v WAS, @ ATL). If you like playing with fire and taking on potentially more burning ratios, then by all means. Anderson will have some good starts this season but I’m only streaming him in 15’s when I see ‘@ SF’ on the schedule.
– Tyler Thornton (RH/TOR) has had a predictably rough couple of starts after a great MLB debut and follow-up. He gets a palpable set of starts (v SF, v OAK) this week so I’d consider playing him if I owned him. But I’m not bidding on him for these two starts. That A’s offense in Rogers Centre sounds dangerous to me. They’ve been all too quiet and will probably heat up by the middle of next week.
I didn’t mention prospect Michael Chavis in the article, but you’ll see some big bids on him in 15’s this weekend. There’s risk of him getting sent down of course. He has yet to be in the starting lineup since getting called up but it’s clear that the Red Sox need some help at 2B. He is major league ready so I hope they give him a chance. Just not sure I’d bid more on him over Cole Tucker.
Finally, with more than half that Yankees’ starting lineup on the IL, consider the two Mikes (Tauchman/Ford) among your conditional OF bids in 15-teamers.
Welcome to my weekly Free Agent Acquisition Bidding/Budget (FAAB) column where my goal is to have you confidently prepared to acquire the hitters and pitchers off free agency or waivers to make your team better. Like most everything else in life, you get out what you put in. Those quickly slapping one and two dollar bids together at the last second very rarely stay competitive in a game where FAAB is of the utmost importance. Properly setting our squads up for the following week starts with our efforts in FAAB, and those who spend the proper time on it, are usually rewarded. They’re either catching lightning in a bottle with someone who provides value for the rest of the year, or they’re renting someone who has immediate impact and value based on upcoming matchups.
Churning and burning is important, no matter the size of your league (10, 12, 15), though the smaller the league, the more active you need to be in FAAB. The art of FAAB isn’t just about picking up the right players as a rental or for the long-term. It involves a fine balance with also being sure you’re not dropping the wrong players prematurely. Here’s a refresher from draft season on how to manage FAAB.
TWO-START PITCHERS
In a complete reversal of last week’s plethora of riches, worthwhile two-start pitchers are hard to come by this week. The must-use studs who go twice include Carlos Carrasco, Jack Flaherty, Chris Sale, Joe Musgrove and Patrick Corbin. Those projected to go twice who will most certainly be in the lineup of all who own them include Kenta Maeda, Matt Boyd, Mike Minor, Jake Arrieta, Sonny Gray, Jose Quintana and Domingo German. A few guys who are over 90% owned in NFBC OC who you should probably rollout there include: Zach Eflin, Jake Odorizzi, Pablo Lopez and a few guys with plus skills who have struggled early on: Brad Peacock, J.A. Happ and Steven Matz.
Here are the borderline 12-team guys possibly available who you may want to consider adding should you have a starting roster slot you want to utilize this week (%-owned listed for NFBC OC 12’s and Y!). None of these guys should cost you many FAAB dollars in 12-teamers and are mostly streamers for those who want to grab some extra strikeouts and perhaps luck into a win or two. Weaver, Turnbull and Chirinos should be snagged quickly if available in 15-team leagues, as they certainly have value in those deeper formats.
Luke Weaver, RH/ARI – 75%, 26% (@ PIT, v CHC) – Two poor starts to kick off the season, then a 17:1 K:BB ratios in his last two against the Padres and versus the Braves on the road. Failed us miserably last season, but we need to have short-term memory in fantasy. Anyone who worked in the offseason with the great Trevor Bauer deserves an extra few bucks for his two-step bid. Don’t break the bank, as he’s still a 12-team streamer, but he does have long-term value.
Spencer Turnbull, RH/DET – 33%, 4% (@ BOS, v CHW) – Somewhat of a risk with that Fenway start but he’s a big prospect with moxie. No runs allowed in his last start against the Pirates and whiffed 10 Royals a couple weeks back. Still a bit dicey for long-term value in 12’s, but if I wanted to ramp up some strikeouts this week and needed the starting spot, I’d bid him. Not worth more than $30 of your remaining $1000 budget since he’s pretty much just a one-week rental (with some risk).
Yonny Chirinos, RH/TBR – 65%, 38% (v KCR, @ BOS) – One of my favorite young pitchers and I own Yonny in Main Event. With two “starts” (after the openers) on deck, he now waltzes his way into the discussion for 12-team leagues. Wish the second start was prettier on paper, but we don’t control that. It’s a risk of course as those Red Sox bats are finally starting to wake up. But Yonny has been fantastic control-wise (5.7% BB, 0.83 WHIP) but is still giving up 38% hard contact. A tougher call in 12’s, so it comes down to your needs. Either way, bid him around the same amount as Turnbull.
Reynaldo Lopez, RH/CHW – 35%, 7% (@ BAL, v DET) – One of the league’s worst pitchers in April, but that two-step is oh so pretty. After serving up 18 earned runs and 12 walks over his first three starts, Lopez bounced back with an easy matchup against KC (6 IP – 1 ER – 2 BB – 5 K). If you’re feeling froggy and your ratios aren’t already damaged, I’d consider him for a few bucks.
Lance Lynn, RH/TEX – 16%, 8% (@ OAK, @ SEA) – Better than we expected so far, but still risky against two fantastic NL West offenses (though it’s better than these two starts being at home). He’s walked just six batters and allowed only two homers through four starts (24.1 IP). I’m least confident about him amongst this group.
15-team streamers (ownership listed for 15-team NFBC Main Event)
Erik Swanson, RH/SEA – 14% (@ SD, v TEX) – You’re going to see some massive bids on the kid in both 12 and 15-team leagues. He’s a 25-year-old former eighth-round pick who had a decent season in Triple-A last year (3.86 ERA, 3.26 xFIP, 27% K, 4.8% BB) in the Yankees’ system. He pitched in relief on April 11 for his MLB debut (2 BB, 2 ER in 2 IP) against the Royals and followed that up with a very impressive gem against a hapless Indians’ squad in his first MLB start (6 IP – 2 H – 1 ER – 0 BB – 5 K). Because of that start, you’ll see folks paying up hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. Luckily, Rob had the premonition to grab him for three bucks for our Main Event team last week and know we’ll see low triple-digit bids. Wade LeBlanc will be back in about a month if all goes well with his recovery, but Swanson could already have run away with the job by then. He’s worth a whirl in these deep formats with mostly crap on waivers.
There are other 15-team additions available, but unless your ratios are outstanding, not certain these guys are worth the risk. They include Orioles’ David Hess (v CHW, @ MIN), Brewers’ Zach Davies (@ STL, @ NYM) and Red Sox’ fill-in for Eovaldi, Hector Velasquez (v DET, v TBR).
Must-Bid
Mike Soroka, RH/ATL (68% in NFBC Main Event) – Pretty much have to do what you can to earn the right to his services (in both 12 and 15 team leagues). Soroka is a big-time prospect who rookie season was throttled early by injury. He’s back and should stick in the rotation so long as he’s healthy. It may get crowded with Touki Toussaint recalled and Mike Foltynewicz expected back soon. But his upcoming three-game stretch is easy enough, on paper, for him to earn his keep. Soroka gets @ CIN followed by a two-step of v SD, @ MIA. Soroka struck out nine batters in his season debut and looked sharp after a rough first inning. I’d bid Soroka over Swanson on pedigree alone. Rotations have a way of working themselves out when it comes to talented arms.
Jerad Eickhoff, RH/PHI (3% in Main Event) – Don’t break the bank for him, but he’s in the rotation for Pivetta for now and gets that cushy start against the Marlins this week. I’d put him in as a reasonable conditional bid and hope someone else spends triple-digits on him.
Closer Corner
MARINERS – Roenis Elias / Anthony Swarzak – Swarzak is 100% owned in 12’s but Elias just 15% and he’s notched saves in back-to-back games. He’s secured four saves on the season to Swarzak’s two. He may well be the head of this closer committee because he’s the better pitcher, though he’s the lefty (Swarzak a righty) so it may still remain situational. Still worth a stab though.
PHILLIES – Hector Neris – Snagged a second save this week and his outlook for more opportunities looks brighter with David Robertson sidelined. Moreover, Neris was dropped in a ton of leagues and may be available in yours if you’re desperate. The issue is Kapler’s ninth-inning situation will likely continue to remain murky, so don’t say you haven’t been warned.
ROYALS – Wily Peralta / Ian Kennedy / Brad Boxberger – A big box of crap and not like this Royals team will have ample amount of save opps this year. Kennedy is the best of the bunch and should just be the guy, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Each of these guys has a save so far. Kennedy has allowed just one run in 10.2 IP while Peralta has allowed six runs in nine innings but lucked into two wins (Royals are 7-14). Box is another story altogether with more runs allowed (10) than innings pitched (9.1). Peralta and Kennedy should continue to rotate for some save opps and Peralta (35% owned in OC) may be worth a stab for save opps so long as you know that ratios can implode at any time.
REDS – Robert Stephenson – Someone to keep an eye on with Iglesias struggling (5 ER in 8.2 IP). Stephenson has been with the organization for several years now. Was a big-time starting pitcher prospect who never truly converted that potential in the majors. Now as a reliever, Stephenson has looked incredibly sharp with 15 strikeouts in 10 innings. No reason to assume he’ll steal the role to himself, but it may be worth a few bucks to speculate on.
SCHEDULE NOTES
Teams with 7 games: PHILLIES, PIRATES, DBACKS, RED SOX, YANKEES, TIGERS, ASTROS, ANGELS, RANGERS
Teams with 5 games: PADRES, GIANTS, BLUE JAYS
THE GOOD
- We’re always kicking things off here with looking to see who the Orioles play. Good news this week for White Sox and Twins bats. The Twins have a tough series in Houston over the weekend but avoid Cole and McHugh.
- You’re usually almost always starting your Rockies, though may consider sitting fringe guys when all games are on the road or when they only play five. We’re safe this week with a three-game home series against the Nats followed by three in SunTrust to face the Braves – a good park for lefty power (McMahon, Dahl, Blackmon).
- Speaking of the Nationals, that Coors series is great. But they then head to back home for three against the Padres where they may face three lefties. With Freeland for Colorado, that’s four lefties total. Not great news for Adam Eaton who can be benched in 12-teamers and Matt Adams in 15-teamers. You still play Juan Soto no matter what though keep an eye on this Anthony Rendon injury (hopefully it’s not serious).
- Very much like the schedule for Braves hitters. They’ll face five RHP (maybe even six if Tyler Anderson doesn’t get off the IL). Perhaps Freddie Freeman will start popping out some dingers. Nick Markakis is a start in all formats.
THE BAD
- Not the best schedule for the Brewers with six on the road against tough the Cardinals and Mets. With deGrom on IL, it’ll be just a bit easier, but they’ll still have to see Syndergaard and Flaherty.
- Pirates may have seven but it’s not the best collection of matchups. They’ll face Godley-Weaver-Kelly-Greinke followed by what will most likely be Maeda and two lefty studs (Kershaw-Hill).
- Not like we’re using many hitters from the Marlins but it’s tougher than usual for them with six at home in their pitcher’s park taking on Indians’ aces and some tough Philly pitchers.
HITTERS – 15-TEAM ADDS
Hunter Dozier (1B/3B), RH/KCR (88%) – A prized prospect many years ago but we all faded on him as he was always just mediocre in the minor leagues and through his first couple stints in the big leagues. Dozier went for some triple-digit bids last weekend and after another productive week, those few leagues he’s available in, he’ll go for big money. I’m not 100% sold on him as a true breakout, though his early statcast data begs to differ. Has essentially taken over the role of the team’s cleanup hitter…for now.
David Fletcher (2B/3B), RH/LAA (75%) – Ended up with Fletcher in Main Event last week as my fifth conditional bid, and it’s worked out splendidly (.320 with 5 R), as he’s seen some time as the leadoff man when a lefty is starting (Kole Calhoun against righties). The Angels have a four-game series with the Yankees to kick off the week and will see at least two (if not three) left-handed starters.
Matt Adams (1B), LH/WAS (2%) – Pretty much just a Coors rental as he should find himself in the lineup at least twice in that three-game series (won’t be in against the lefty Freeland). Adams has pop and is a DFS darling in the right matchups. He’s usually always available for a rental when you need it and when we see a bunch of subpar righty arms on the schedule.
Cole Tucker (SS), SW/PIT (0%) – Tucker was promoted for his MLB debut on Saturday and instantly earned the leadoff spot for the day. In the midst of his first season in Triple-A, Tucker is a first-rounder from 2014 and is turning 23 in July. He scored 77 runs and swiped 35 bags in Double-A last season (589 PA) and may have just found himself a spot on the roster for the season so long as he doesn’t struggle mightily. IF he steals a base or two this weekend, watch those bids soar. If he goes O-fer, he’ll still see big bids based on Shiny New Toy syndrome, but not as significant. Note that is one of the league’s worst offenses so keep your expectations for Tucker in check from a run-producing standpoint. (SHOCKER: Tucker hits a HR in his career debut five minutes after I wrote this paragraph – watch those bid prices soar!)
Howie Kendrick (2B), RH/WAS (25%) – The ageless wonder actually has an age – he’s 35! He’s a career .292 hitter currently at .455 and had a little extra playing time with Brian Dozier sidelined. With the Nats going to Coors, all of them are in play this week for that extra little boost. Just someone handy to have on your roster to help with batting average. (Rendon missing anytime bodes well for both Kendrick and Adams)
Ryan Cordell (OF), RH/CHW (0%) – He’s 27 years old, with his third team (all in the minors) and finally has his shot. He did get 40 PA last year, but so far off to a hot start since getting called up earlier in the week (two homers, .462/.500/1.000 slash). One of those flavors of the week in my opinion, so not worth a crazy high bid. But perhaps up to $50 if you started with $1000 in FAAB ($5 if started with $100).
Jung Ho Kang (3B), RH/PIT (75%) – Awful start (39% K) but he’ll start to swing that .150 AVG up.
HITTERS – 12-TEAM ADDS
Jose Martinez (1B/OF), RH/STL (50%) – Expect to see tons of high-priced bids for him in 15-teamers where he’s still available and perhaps decent-sized bids in 12-teamers as well. Jo-Mart is one of the league’s few reliable contact hitters who you know will bat above .290 and drive in a boatload of runs with full-time at-bats. That’s what he’s getting now with Tyler O’Neill and Harrison Bader sidelined. He has hit out of the five-hole in three consecutive games, grabbing a hit in at least each of them and launched one deep on Friday as one of his three hits. One of my favorite and most-owned late-round guys last year, Martinez deserves full-time at-bats but may not get them when the youth brigade returns.
Mitch Moreland (1B), LH/BOS (67%) – Has six homers already and usually hits third or fourth in this lineup when a righty is on the mound. The Red Sox will see as many as six on their schedule this week and they play seven at home. You can rent him for the week then turn him back in for the next flavor of the week based on upcoming schedule. (UPDATE: Now day-to-day with back spasms, literally right after this article was complete. Hitters going down like flies).
Yonder Alonso (1B/DH), LH/CHW (70%) – I recommended him in this spot last week and kept my own word by adding him on four of my five OC’s. Going into last week, Alonso had been incredibly unlucky (BABIP and AVG under .200) despite looking good in his at-bats and hitting the ball hard. He had a four-hit game and smashed a homer this past week and now looks to another fantastic on-paper schedule against the Orioles in Camden and the Tigers back at home.
Alex Verdugo (OF), LH/LAD (72%) – You don’t have to add him if your offense is deep enough, but in leagues like the OC with an overall component, you probably should. He doesn’t play every day, but he’s finding himself in the starting lineup more often these days. He’s driven in 13 runs and is hitting .367 on the season (through Friday’s games), usually from the seven-spot in the lineup. Don’t think it’s necessary to break the bank on him because that average will drop 60-80 points and he doesn’t get those full-time at-bats. But in this wonky world of hitters going down on a daily basis, it only takes one injury to an outfielder for Yelich Jr. to find himself everyday at-bats.
OTHERS TO CONSIDER:
- Avisail Garcia (OF), RH/TBR (49%) – Long-term value as your OF5
- Dwight Smith Jr. (OF), LH/BAL (29%) – Just 29% owned? Remedy that immediately
- Leury Garcia (OF), SW/CHW (53%) – Leadoff hitter w/ speed – that has value in 12’s
- Ryan McMahon (1B), LH/COL (81%) – Listed only because he’s available in 19% of OC’s – I imagine you’ll bid heavy if he’s there in yours
