I’ve been getting a lot of questions from folks wanting to move on from Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto. Two batters, likely headed to the Hall of Fame, are there reasons to suggest that it’s time to move on from the former stars in the fantasy game? Ray Flowers also takes a look at pitchers. Flaherty has been so-so at this point. Honeywell has a setback. What are the Dodgers doing with their rotation? Musgrove has been pretty darn amazing to this point. Matz was recently bombed. Quintana has turned around his slow start. Aaron Sanchez is healthy. Does it matter? What will the Braves do with Soroka? Wacha has become Mr. Walk and Mr. Homer. Trevor Williams, solid is as solid does.
ARE MIGUEL CABRERA AND JOEY VOTTO DONE?
Do you give up on a HOFamer after less than 20 games? The answer to that question, for me, is no. Seems like for most of you, the answer is yes.
Miguel Cabrera is 36 years old, and he’s coming off an injury wrecked season of just 38 games played. People were very low on Miggy coming into the season, and even those that put faith in him a month ago are ready to bail. Let’s review. Last year when “he stunk,” Miggy had a .299/.395/.448 slash line leading to a .843 OPS. That mark was three points behind Anthony Rizzo and .029 points better than Cody Bellinger. Cabrera returned to action this season and tore it up in 20 Spring Training games (.340/.418/.723 with five homers). Despite all that, he’s struggled in 18 games (.265/.346/.309) and people are just out on him. Why? Why did you draft him if you were going to move on from him in less than a month? Second, let’s look a bit deeper. Cabrera has a 50.0 percent hard-hit ball rate, just 0.7 below his career mark. That’s 34th out of 264 qualifiers (25 batted ball events). Further, for those of you that love expected stats, have you noticed that Cabrera has a .297 wOBA, but that his expected wOBA is actually .378? Does that sound like a guy who is done? It doesn’t to me.
Joey Votto had a down season last year (.284-12-67-67). He still posted a .417 OBP (third in baseball) and a .370 wOBA (19th). So, was he really that bad? The answer is no. He’s started out extremely slowly this year, like many of his Reds’ teammates, with a .230/.319/.426 slash line. Is all hope lost? I mean, his 10.1 percent walk rate is an 11-year low while his 26.1 percent K-rate would be a career worst, so he must be done. I mean, he couldn’t possible just be in a bit of a slump, could he? Yes, sarcasm was added if you missed it. There’s also the fact that he’s been a traditionally slow starter as he has his worst monthly batting average, OBP, SLG wOBA and wRC+ in April. It’s really a philosophical thing. I just can’t bail on a HOF hitter after 18 games, especially not one with his control of the strike zone and understanding of hitting. I’m still holding, and so should you be.
A final note…
I reached out to Baseball Savant’s Daren Williams who is the Director of Research and Development for MLB. I asked him why one of my favorite sites, Fangraphs, has such different hard-hit numbers than Baseball Savant in some instances. Here is his response. “Savant is using exit velocity > 95 mph. FG uses video operator entry to determine hard-hit.”
PITCHING
Jack Flaherty has worked more than five innings just one time in four starts, and he’s also been taken deep four times. This is not ideal. That 21 percent HR/FB ratio isn’t likely to hang around, so that’s a positive. It’s also fair to point out that Jack has walked just four guys in four outings, and he has punched out 22 batters in 18 innings. So, what’s wrong? Dude is getting mashed. It’s absurd to have a guy with his stuff, or anyone really, to be allowing a 43.6 percent hard-hit rate (the exit velocity is up nine mph from last season). The spin rate, from last year to this year, is up on the curveball, up on the sinker, up on the slider and up on the fastball. Further, his SIERA is 0.08 lower than last season while his xFIP is 0.13 lower. Keep the faith.
Brent Honeywell is dealing with soreness in his elbow as he attempts to return from Tommy John surgery. He will be shut down “for at least a few days.” It’s being called a small setback, or at least that is the hope at this point. It’s always been dubious that he would be a plus in mixed leagues this season. Speaking of Rays, they will go with an Opener Friday, Saturday it’s Charlie Morton and Sunday it’s Tyler Glasnow.
Hyun Jin Ryu (groin) will start Saturday and Clayton Kershaw will start Sunday for the Dodgers. Rich Hill will likely have a rehab start on Monday, and his first big league outing this season will follow. Julio Urias has been moved to the bullpen after his sterling outing Thursday. Ross Stripling is set to move to the bullpen when Hill is ready to go.
Joe Musgrove has been on it allowing two runs and four walks over 22.1 innings. He’s been terrific against lefties with a .257 wOBA, but he’s been insanely impressive against righties with a .167 wOBA. Despite that unsustainable success against righties, he still has a K/9 rate of just 7.90, despite a slightly elevated 40 percent hard-hit rate. He’s actually thrown less pitches in the strike zone this year that in any of his four seasons, and the amount of pitches he’s generated swings on is 49 percent, less than his 50 percent career rate. He’s been great, but this level of dominance isn’t sustainable.
Steven Matz allowed five runs, three earned, his first three starts before he was annihilated by the Phillies (8 R, 6 ER, no outs). He is just the ninth pitcher since at least 1908 to allow eight runs without generating an out. I’m not really a fan, but his first three efforts were enough not to dismiss him merely because of that last outing. Still, he allowed 11 unearned runs last season and already four this season (amongst pitchers who threw at least 140 innings last season only four guys allowed more led by Jake Arrieta with 17). That’s 15 unearned runs in 34 starts which means he’s certainly not done a very good job shutting the opponent down when he’s been pushed to the wall by poor defense.
Jose Quintana is a guy I received a ton of questions about after his slow start. Actually, they weren’t really questions as much as they were people pleading with me to allow them to drop the lefty. I can’t say I said not to in every situation, sometimes available players in leagues are wild, but I can say that at least 95 percent of the time I said hold. Since then, he’s struck out 18 batters against one walk in back-to-back efforts of seven innings and no runs allowed. That’s 3-of-4 outings with at least seven strikeouts and no more than two runs allowed. He will be just fine.
Aaron Sanchez went 15-3 with a 3.00 ERA in 2016 as one of the rising stars in the game on the hill. The last two years he’s thrown a total of 141 innings as injuries have crushed him (mostly that insane finger crap). This season he’s made four starts and he’s been effective. He has a 2.86 ERA, though he has also allowed three unearned runs. However, despite the success, he’s the owner of a horrible 5.32 BB/9 rate, his 55.8 first pitch strike rate is bad and below his 58 percent career mark, and he still can’t really miss bats. Despite his velocity and movement, he’s never had a season with a swinging strike rate that has been 10 percent (it’s currently 9.8 percent). Realize that the league was at 10.7 percent last season. Health concerns, and the lack of missed bats, leads me to still be concerned about Sanchez and his season long outlook.
Mike Soroka struck out six and allowed one run over five innings in his season debut against the Diamondbacks. He looked sharp. However, his role moving forward is completely up in the air as it’s possible he is sent back to the minors or asked to fill a bullpen role. My read of the situation is that once Mike Foltynewicz is back next week, Soroka is minors/pen bound.
Michael Wacha has looked solid in three outings, but he was also blasted by the Dodgers in his fourth outing. Overall, he has a 4.84 ERA, a 4.66 FIP and a 4.88 SIERA. He’s punched out 24 over 21.1 innings, but it’s the walks (14 leading to 5.91 BB/9 rate) and the homers (five homers and 2.11 HR/9 rate) that are the biggest concern, that and the fact that his health often fails him. Not much interest from me.
Trevor Williams has no upside, but that floor isn’t as low as one would think. Over his last 35 starts he’s 15-10 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Note that his xFIP is 4.58, that he has just 6.60 strikeouts per nine, and that his .260 BABIP is bound to rise.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
