Kingery is rolling. Lindor is about ready to return. How is McNeil doing it? Ozuna is mashing homers. Trea Turner’s return is up in the air. Boyd has been as on his game as possible in the early going. Bundy needs to start throwing his slider a lot more. Burnes hasn’t done anything but strike batters out or allow homers. Kikuchi’s workload challenges. Pablo Lopez has had an uneven start to the year. McHugh has been fantastic for the Astros. Talking about rolling… look up Mike Minor. Severino was hurt, once or twice? Thornton is in danger of losing his spot in the rotation.
HITTERS
Scott Kingery will play daily until Jean Segura is set to return from his hamstring issue. How long will that be? As of this writing Segura is expected to return to the starting lineup by the end of the week. The hot start for Kingery surely will get him more run in the early going, but barring a DL stint by Segura/Maikel Franco or Cesar Hernandez, it’s hard to envision Kingery be a solid mixed league option moving forward. That said, it’s amazing how many totally discounted the potential 20/20 threat after his horrible effort with the bat in 2018.
Francisco Lindor (ankle) will play at Triple-A today and then head to Cleveland. It sounds possible that he could be activated as early as Friday. Gotta question how much running he will be doing right out of the box, and you have to be a bit concerned that he will start slowly after missing so much time, but he’s such a wonderful talent that it wouldn’t be shocking to see him start quickly. Provided he’s activated this weekend, he should be active in all lineups next week.
Jeff McNeil doesn’t have a firm spot at one position for the Mets. To date, he’s appeared at second base, third base and left field. With two more hits Wednesday, he’s hitting .424 with a .444 wOBA over 76 plate appearances. That’s a truly shocking run of success. He’s not a power bat at all, three homers in 80 games, and he though he swiped seven bags last season he hasn’t stolen a base this season. He’s also rocking a .472 BABIP right now, and it would be a minor miracle if he finished the season with a mark within .100 points of that. He’s not a bad bench guy because of that positional flexibility, but you’ve missed his three best hitting weeks of the year, he still has no power, and it’s unlikely he’s more than a 15-steal guy in the absolute best case.
Howard Carter would be jealous.
Marcell Ozuna hit another homer Wednesday, his sixth in sixth games and eight overall. Seemingly overnight, his slash line sparkles (.290/.343/.726) with an obnoxiously high wOBA of .535. He’s only hit 25 homers one time, though with this hot start a run to his second 30 homer season has to be considered very possible as long as he stays healthy (he hit 27 homers two years back). I don’t think he’s a 35-homer type of guy, not saying he can’t get there I’m just not expecting it. However, he is an impressive run producer, and hitting in the middle of a Cards lineup it certainly seems plausible to suggest a run to triple-digit RBIs is doable.
Trea Turner still doesn’t have a definitive timetable to return to action. That said, he was on the field Wednesday taking some fielding practice, though he didn’t throw. “As far as the medical standpoint, I really don’t know the answer to that, but it’s his throwing finger, so that’s going to be the last thing that he really has to do,” said manager Davey Martinez.
PITCHERS
Matthew Boyd has been a boss this year. Through four starts he has a massive 36 punchouts over 24.1 innings, which is actually supported by a massive 16.1 percent swinging strike rate. The slider, which he has thrown nearly 38 percent of the time (more than double his career 19.8 percent rate) has been electric with a .521 OPS and .228 wOBA allowed along with an insane 46 percent K-rate. It’s too early to say that this is who he is now, but this has the makings of a legitimate breakout campaign for the 28 year old. Note, it’s a long season, and when a guy goes from an afterthought to outright stardom in a month, you’re right to be a bit cautious about his long-term outlook, but the seeds are certainly here for success.
Dylan Bundy has 22 strikeouts in 17.1 innings leading to a massive 11.42 K/9 rate and his 13.0 percent swinging strike rate is a career best. Also, a career best is his 65.4 percent first pitch strike rate (career 61.1). However, two facts have undermined his efforts to this point. (1) Despite throwing so many strikes early in the count, his walk rate has exploded to 4.67 per nine (the mark has been under 2.85 each of the past two seasons). (2) His absurd 2.15 HR/9 rate from last season is even higher, catastrophically so at 3.63 per nine. That’s impossible. I’m sitting here, typing the words/numbers and realizing… it’s impossible. The 27 percent HR/FB rate will dip, but if it settles back in the 18 percent range that it was at least season he will still be sunk. He’s given up four homers in 33 at-bats on his fastball, two in 13 at-bats on his slider, and one on his changeup (16 at-bats). With everyone else in baseball turning to the slider, why is Bundy throwing his less (he’s at 20.7 percent this season after sitting at 25.4 percent last year)? I assume it’s to protect his oft-injured arm, but I got news for you Dylan – if you ain’t gonna start throwing the pitch more, you ain’t gonna be successful. Bundy’s held batters to a stellar .245 wOBA on the pitch in his career, compared to the massive .373 wOBA he has on the fastball. START THROWING YOUR SLIDER MORE.
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Corbin Burnes has great stuff. He’s also been a complete and total miss to this point. Sure sounds like he is about to be removed from the starting rotation though. Listen to the words of manager Craig Counsell. Burnes allowed three runs in all three of his starts heading into yesterday, when he allowed two homers before being pulled after 3.1 innings or of (5 R, 9 hits). Through four starts that’s 11 homers, 30 hits, a 13.50 ERA and a vomit inducing 2.15 WHIP. He has a great arm, but there is no need to have him on your roster unless you are in a keeper/dynasty format.
Yusei Kikuchi will have a normal start Saturday against the Angels. One of the following two starts the team will start to employ their plan of periodically using Kikuchi as The Opener. This plan is set to keep his innings in check, and the idea would seem to be using him as an Opener about once every five or so starts. Still think he’s a solid rotation filler so I’m surprised that so many folks are bailing on him. Maybe I shouldn’t be surprised. Patience is a scare trait in 2019.
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Pablo Lopez hasn’t started as hoped for the Marlins. He has 23 punchouts in 20 innings, but he’s also allowed 13 runs leading to a 5.85 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. That .386 BABIP is nutso high, but he has to throw more strikes on that first pitch as his 55 percent rate just isn’t going to lead to long-term success.
Colin McHugh has been the nuts so far. In four outings he’s allowed a total of five tuns and his 27 strikeouts in 23 innings show his dominance. He’s kept the ball in the yard allowing one homer, and really, he’s been as good as anyone could have expected. Great offense and environment around him leaving one of the main questions as workload. McHugh threw 184.2 innings in 2016 but the last two seasons he’s worked out of the pen and as a starter throwing a mere 151.2 innings in the two years.
Mike Minor already has rumors swirling around his name in trade talks. Minor threw a nine-inning complete game shutout against the Angels in his last outing. He’s walked two batters in each outing, and though he’s also permitted three homes, he’s allowed a total of two runs his last three times out. He’s a really solid arm on the bump, knows how to pitch, and should be a decent backend guy in a mixed league this season. Truthfully, a trade would be a good thing as pitching in Texas when the weather warms is not a place anyone really wants to throw the pelota.
Luis Severino seems to have a different story than the team when it comes to his health. He believes his shoulder and lat issues occurred at the same time, while the team maintains it was two separate events that lead to his physical woes. Regardless, a return around the All-Star Break is the current expectation.
Trent Thornton might be about ready to lose his spot in the rotation after another lackluster outing or two (Clayton Richard is working his way back from a knee issue and sounds like he could be a few weeks away). His last two times on the bump he’s permitted nine earned runs, 14 hits and five walks in 7.2 frames.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
