Russell Clay has an interesting article on running back and wide receiver draft position and the “probability“1 of fantasy success. He defines “success” as over 1000 yards from scrimmage (YFS). I took his success metric and methodology and applied it to the age of RBs when they were drafted2 to see if that was also a factor in their future success.
Here’s the overall chart:
The first column is the number of seasons the RBs in this study gained 1000+ YFS. The percentages in the subsequent columns tell us how frequently RBs of a certain draft age met the 1000+ YFS criteria compared to the total number of RBs of that age who were taken in NFL drafts from 2000-2018. For example, 48.1% of all 21-year-old backs drafted in that period had at least one 1000 YFS season.
The “Zero” row is the percentage of backs at a given draft age who NEVER (or not yet, for RBs taken last year), gained 1000 YFS in a season. Logically, you could figure this out by subtracting the “1” row percentage from 100%, but I think it’s more telling to actually see how few drafted running backs make this milestone.
The last row tells you how many RBs in each age group were drafted from 2000-2018. I’ve excluded three outliers from the chart: Mike Anderson, who was drafted at age 26 and two posted 2 1000+ YFS seasons for the Mike Shanahan Broncos; Ronnie Hillman, drafted at age 20 and yet to produce 1000 YFS in a year; and Dion Lewis, also 20 when picked, with 1 1000+ YFS.
It seems pretty clear that RBs who enter the league at a younger age are more likely to have productive fantasy careers. In fact, almost the same percentage of RBs drafted at 21 put up at least three 1000+ YFS years (26.0%) as 22-year-olds managed one such season (29.7%). And 22 year-olds were more successful than RBs aged 23, etc. as we move right across the chart.
Of course, there are exceptions. Note that 22-year-old draft picks are the only ones to manage 9 or more successful fantasy seasons. Adrian Peterson (9), Matt Forte (9), and Frank Gore (12). Gore, in particular, had his pro career delayed by injuries in college, but arguably both Peterson and Forte would have entered the draft sooner if they hadn’t been hurt prior to their final collegiate season.3
Here’s another way to think about the data. There were 439 RBs drafted from 2000-2018. Together they combined for 308 seasons of over 1000 YFS. This graph compares the share of both the total RBs drafted and the 1000+ YFS seasons by backs at various draft ages:
21-year-old draftees had twice as large a share of successful seasons (39%) as their makeup of the RB draft classes (18%). Those with a draft age of 22 basically had equal shares of success and total backs taken. Older backs had less and less share of the 1000+ YFS years compared to their portion of RBs drafted.
Bottom line: age matters. There are other studies across sports that show that athletes who enter their profession at a younger age generally are more successful and that front offices who fail to account for age when drafting/signing players are making a mistake. This certainly applies to your dynasty fantasy football team as well.
Now, is age or draft position more significant? Come back for another article.
1It’s not exactly right to call this probability, as Russell acknowledges, since these aren’t random number selections with defined chances of appearing. It’s still a useful way of thinking about his results.
2“Draft age” in this study is the age the player was at the start of the season (September 1st) in the year he was drafted. Of course, it’s arbitrary to say a player born on August 31st is “older” than one born on September 1st.
3You could conclude that 22-year-olds in the draft are far more likely to have extremely long productive careers than other age groups – but that would be making a sweeping conclusion from a small sample of extraordinary athletes. I wouldn’t do that.
