The NFL is built upon what college football provides. Every year, there’s a focus on incoming rookies and players who are going to make impacts for their new teams, but where did those players come from? What did they look like as underclassmen in college? How productive were they? The goal of this article is to help provide analysis that will improve readers ability to identify NFL players who are still in college. Each week, there will be four players evaluated and given an NFL projected draft position based on their current historical indicators.
There are many tidbits and clues the NFL leaves behind pertaining to what they’re looking for in an NFL Draft prospect. The basic strength, speed and athleticism are factors in building a skill position player, but it’s clear there’s more to it than that. When reviewing the NFL Draft over the last two decades, there’s statistical trends and traits NFL teams look for before selecting players as well. This article, which highlights players not yet draft eligible, will highlight those factors.
THE PROSPECTS
Anthony McFarland (RB, Maryland)
McFarland had a true breakout redshirt freshman season in 2018, producing 1107 yards from scrimmage on 8.0 yards per touch (7.9 per rush attempt, 10.4 per reception). McFarland is on the smaller side of the spectrum (Listed at 5 foot 8 and 193 pounds), and that will be a concern in regards to his NFL future. While McFarland isn’t out of the weight range of being a successful NFL fantasy contributor, the line of demarcation for NFL draft position and role opportunity is around 200 pounds. Maryland has been known over the last couple of seasons for producing highly efficient rushing numbers, specifically with McFarland’s recent teammate Ty Johnson. Despite Johnson’s special production over multiple seasons (career 7.6 yards per attempt on 348 attempts), he failed to receive a combine invite, and it’s clear that NFL scouts didn’t fully appreciate his production profile. The key to McFarland’s potential as a prospect is the eventual workload he handles. 138 touches in a freshman season is fantastic, but if that role doesn’t grow to the 200 or more variety by his junior season, McFarland could find a similar fate to Johnson. It’s also worth noting that Maryland doesn’t throw many passes to their running backs, so despite McFarland being a talented open field weapon, that trait may slip under the radar to draft evaluators. There’s a long way to go, but ultimately McFarland gives off the vibe of a quality NFL talent that will manifest opportunity with his speed and balance for his size.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: 3rd/4th Round – Again, McFarland is undersized, and it’s certainly possible he can gain significant bulk, but it’s better to be conservative with projecting draft position for prospects of his archetype. McFarland appears to be an above average to strong athlete, so if he can put together a high-end athletic profile, he could find himself in the Day two (round two or three) discussion.
Similar Prospect(s): Roy Helu Jr.
Jalen Reagor (WR, TCU)
Reagor came to TCU as a highly touted, four-star high school recruit and was expected to come in and make a big impact. So far, he’s met those expectations. At 6 foot 1 and 195 pounds, Reagor thrives in close quarters, displaying exciting athleticism and elusiveness with the ball in his hands. After an impressive freshman season where Reagor accumulated 641 yards from scrimmage (576 receiving, 65 rushing), he took the reins of the offense and became a true featured weapon in his Sophomore campaign. Reagor finished 2018 with 1,231 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns. Despite the fantastic production individually, TCU had an incredibly down season offensively, dealing with multiple QB injuries, and also struggling to get anything going in the running game. This is out of character for a college program that’s been amazingly consistent over the last decade, especially since they entered the Big 12. Reagor should benefit from a more stable QB situation in 2019 and is slotted in as the clear top weapon in the offense. There isn’t much else for Reagor to prove as a WR prospect, so as long as he can stay healthy and put together another season similar to 2018, he should expect to see his name called in the top three rounds of the 2019 NFL draft.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: 3rd Round – Reagor has a lot of skills that will be appealing to scouts and NFL teams, and if he can test out above average (he should), this is a fairly easy projection. Reagor doesn’t appear to have HIGH-END potential from a prospect perspective, but his skill set is versatile enough to consider him very high floor from a draft position perspective.
Similar Prospect(s): Markus Wheaton
Damonte Coxie (WR, Memphis)
The RBs in Memphis’ offensive system are set up to get most of the attention from an efficiency and highlight play perspective, but for the second time this decade, it appears they have a WR worthy of the NFL’s attention. Anthony Miller produced in an elite way in a similar system, and there’s no reason for Coxie not to follow in those footsteps, despite going about it in a much different way. Coxie, unlike Miller, is big-bodied. Listed at 6 foot 3 and 200 pounds, Coxie displayed potentially special jump-ball ability in his Sophomore season. Coxie primarily wins on deeper route concepts, both with his speed and ball skills. Coxie isn’t highly agile and isn’t a special mover horizontally, but his long speed should test out well from an NFL perspective, and his NFL role likely won’t ask him to create yards after the catch. Coxie fully broke out in his sophomore season after playing a secondary role to Miller in 2017, producing 1,174 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns. Coxie is guaranteed a featured role moving forward, and if he has another similar season to 2018 in 2019, he could declare early despite playing in a small conference school. An unfortunate reality is that small school prospects have more to prove during the draft process, so athletic testing, particularly the vertical and 40-yard dash, will be especially important for Coxie to prove he belongs.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: 2nd-to-4th Round – Coxie has a lot of things going for him, and that will likely average out his small school production and lack of agility, but sometimes these types of prospects do slip to the middle rounds. Coxie has displayed enough to project that not happening, but his floor is a little lower due to those factors.
Similar Prospect(s): Austin Pettis
K.J. Hill (WR, Ohio State)
In a similar format to Ohio State WRs to come along in the past decade, accumulating volume has been a difficult process for Hill. After redshirting his freshman season, Hill struggled to get snaps and production with a run-heavy and talented offense. Between Curtis Samuel, Noah Brown, Parris Campbell and Terry McLaurin, Hill simply couldn’t break through. Hill actually was second on the team in receiving yards in 2017, but it was only 549 yards. In 2018 QB Dwayne Haskins entered the fold and gave an enormous boost to the passing game. Hill was once again second in receiving yards to Campbell in 2018, accumulating 70 receptions and 885 receiving yards. Hill was primarily used on targets close to the line of scrimmage, but that says much more about the system Ohio State had than his ability. Hill wins with savvy route-running and above average athleticism. Hill has also shown an ability to make catches in tight coverage, which will likely be very important for how he’s perceived as an NFL prospect. Hill appears to have no limitations as an athlete, and if the testing of Ohio State WR prospects over the last five years are any indication (Michael Thomas, Curtis Samuel and Parris Campbell for starters) of the training that goes on, then he should find himself in a great position from that respect.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: 3rd-to-5th Round – Hill has a wide range of outcomes when it pertains to draft position. His modest production profile and non-elite athleticism (though good) will likely limit his ceiling, but if he can put together a solid final season as the “featured” WR in the offense (Let’s assume that’s why he stayed), he could find himself being drafted in the third round.
Similar Prospect(s): Andre Caldwell, Derrick Williams
