Bullpen Usage & Reliever Ratings, or BURR, is an idea that Flowers and Mans have been playing around with since the 2017 season. The reason for their focus is simply that bullpens are a more important part of the modern game than ever before. You know what we mean. Whereas at one time starting pitchers threw 220 innings, then 200… now 180 is the new baseline for upper end hurlers. Starting pitchers just don’t deep into games any more. Plenty of teams are using The Opener, further limiting the innings out of the starting rotation. The facts are obvious to all. Starting pitchers simply do not eat up as many innings as they used to.
Unfortunately, despite that fact, not enough people have taking that into account. That’s not how we’re going to roll at Fantasy Guru in 2019. We are going to continue to be ahead of the curve. Each week we will update our bullpen ratings giving you the best way to attack, or avoid, bullpens while setting your fantasy baseball lineup in the DFS game or in the season long setup.
WHAT IS BURR?
BURR takes into account 14 different categories for bullpens. For more detail on why BURR is needed and what goes into it, click on the link to the Introduction page.
HOW TO READ BURR
Under 1.00 = Any number under the league average is a negative for the bullpen and a positive for the batter. Any number under 1.00 is a bullpen to attack for the offense.
1.00 = The league average
Above 1.00 = Any number above the league average is a positive for the bullpen and a negative for the batter. Any number above 1.00 is a bullpen to avoid for the offense.
THE HIGHER THE NUMBER THE BETTER THE BULLPEN AND THE WORSE IT IS FOR THE BATTER.
THE 2019 SEASON
Here are the baseline numbers to this point of the 2019 season.
|
League |
wOBA |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
ISO |
HR/FB |
GB/FB |
|
2019 |
.319 |
.245 |
.322 |
.422 |
.177 |
14.4 |
1.15 |
Below, there will be three colors of Red, White, and Green. Here is what each color designation represents.
RED: A bullpen to avoid.
WHITE: A moderate, not moving the needle aggressively in either direction, unit.
GREEN: A bullpen to target with your batters.
We will normally be removing the homer column when looking at two-week segments. They are included here for the sack of thoroughness since the season is still in its infancy. Any number listed in YELLOW is a number that was artificially dropped to 1.50 (meaning, any HR/9 or HR/FB number over 1.50 was knocked back down to 1.50 because a huge number would give them a massive, and inaccurate, BURR total). The homer component of the formula is extremely tricky when looking at small sample sizes.
Second note. Not all teams have had a save yet as the Cubs, Nationals and Rockies still have bagels in the saves column. That wonks up the save conversion component. Because it’s not fair to torch a team for not having a save those teams, listed in YELLOW, will have their mark set at 0.67 percent this week.
The Astros and Nationals pens are being well rested thanks to the success of their starting pitchers. The Astros, yet again, have a dominant pen, but the Nationals have really struggled overall, especially in save conversions and the walk rates.
It’s a bit surprising that the Giants are leading the NL in BURR. They have done it on the back of the ground ball and the lack of the homer (4.3 HR/FB ratio and 0.28 homers per nine).
The Rays have also been proficient at keeping the ball in the yard (8.9 HR/FB, 0.68 HR/9).
The Phillies frustrate us in the ninth inning, but overall the group has performed very, very well.
The Indians are dealing with hitting woes, and some concerns in the rotation, but early on the bullpen has held up.
The Cubs bullpen ranks near the bottom, though their 2.45 GB/FB ratio does leave some hope that things will turn around in the near future as that is a stupendous mark.
The Royals, Orioles and D’backs have been pinatas.
The Royals can’t stop walking folks, they aren’t saving games effectively, and they have allowed an awful lot of hard hit balls.
The Orioles are allowing a massive 23.1 HR/FB rate leading to a 2.48 homer per nine rate.
The Diamondbacks have allowed a crazy high 2.22 batters per nine, and that’s just not gonna work.
