As the offseason progresses, and the 2019 rookie class evolves, there’s a constant churn of draft prospect information. Some is good, some bad. This article will help clear the noise and get to the truth. There’s a lot of information out there, but only some of it is valuable. This article will also evolve and shift, based on personal research done through the season.
Now that the Shrine Game, Senior Bowl and Combine are finished, there’s time to address some of the more unique and highly talked about players in the draft class. While I’m a firm believer a prospect’s “true” stock never shifts throughout the process, it’s fun to play along with the news.
The last two weeks have been slow from a rookie perception standpoint. Between NFL teams putting their final touches on their draft strategy, and analysts finalizing their rookie rankings, a lot of the evaluation process is over. There were a few evaluation tidbits to break down, so that’s what we’ll be focusing on, but also, the rumors of where players are going to land in the NFL draft are heating up, and that’s where the meat and potatoes of information being leaked is concentrated. Some of the information will end up being worthless, as NFL teams are leaking a lot of false information in hopes of a player their targeting will fall, but some of it will end up holding up.
STOCK UP
Darrell Henderson (RB, Memphis) — Former FantasyGuru (and current NFL.com) writer Graham Barfield has been coming out with some of his YardsCreated data over the past couple of weeks, and he threw out some interesting information on Henderson. Over the last four classes, he has Henderson as the third best in yards created from shotgun formations. The rest of the top five includes Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott. It’s worth noting that Henderson went to a small school and had easier defenses to play against than those other four, however, Henderson was INCREDIBLY prolific, arguably enough to average out the lacking strength of schedule. Henderson tested out well at the combine and is set up to be a top three round selection. He should garner serious consideration as a top RB in the 2019 class.
Daniel Jones (QB, Duke) — The draft rumors, as mentioned, are heating up, and Jones is one of the main topics of conversation over the last couple of days. Not only is Jones being discussed as a first-round selection, but NFL.com‘s Daniel Jeremiah had Jones going sixth overall to the Giants in his most recent mock draft update. This would be incredibly surprising based on Jones’ resume, but it’s becoming more and more clear that some NFL teams are putting a premium on his skillset. If Jones goes top 10 in the NFL draft, that certainly puts a different spin on his fantasy value, especially in super-flex leagues. A starting QB is valuable, especially one with top ten pedigree, and a guarantee at multi-year starting window. Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen was a good lesson last year, and Jones could be in a similar situation in 2019.
Drew Lock (QB, Missouri) — Lock is a much more accomplished as a college player than Jones, but he has some strong naysayers as well, especially when the idea of him being selected in the first round gets brought up. Lock has been linked to a lot of franchises this offseason with QB needs, and those rumors have only heated up in the last couple of weeks. NFL.com‘s Adam Rank speculates Lock heading to the Dolphins with their 13th selection. Varying other outlets have him going 11th, 30th, and some trade scenarios where he ends up on the Denver Broncos. While it’s difficult to tell which team Lock ends up on, the first round appears to be all but guaranteed.
Riley Ridley (WR, Georgia) — After a month of losing beauty pageants and seeing his stock careen into the middle rounds, Ridley saw some optimism. Bob McGinn released his yearly rankings that are based on NFL scouts and executive opinions. Ridley landed sixth in those rankings, and are certainly different than what the public perception is. Ridley doesn’t have much to get excited about from an athletic or production profile perspective, but there’s clearly redeeming qualities in his film. Ridley will continue to be a polarizing prospect, but it’s a good sign for him that he’s being backed by NFL decision-makers. Ridley is likely destined for the middle rounds, but perhaps he gets his name called earlier than currently projected.
STOCK DOWN
Dwayne Haskins (QB, Ohio State) — Haskins had a phenomenal season in 2018, and the general opinion on him throughout the process has been that he’s a lock to be selected in the top ten picks. With that said, clearly, not everyone agrees with that idea. A report came out this week Haskin’s stock is “falling”, and a lot of NFL decision-makers don’t see him as a first-round prospect. If this is true, it’s unlikely to be a consensus view, but it’s worth noting that those ideas are out there. Considering the general need across the league for QBs, it would seem highly unlikely for Haskins to fall past the middle of the first round, but it’s at least worth reviewing the idea.
N’Keal Harry (WR, Arizona State) — From a projected draft position perspective, it’s time to finally admit that Harry being a “lock top 20 selection” is too optimistic. Does Harry have a lot of traits that indicate he’s a future star at the WR position? Yes. Does Harry have a solid frame, no injury history and solid athletic and production profiles? Yes, yes he does. However, over the last decade, the NFL has shown that sometimes, players with Harry’s archetype will slip to the second round. Between Alshon Jeffery, Allen Robinson, Tyler Boyd, Keenan Allen and JuJu Smith-Schuster, there’s a long track record of talented WR prospects with “Separation concerns” slipping to the second round. While he certainly qualifies as a first-round selection, based on the buzz around him throughout the process, there does appear to be a real chance he “slips” to the second round. It shouldn’t change his evaluation as a dynasty prospect, as second-round selections still have a high probability of success, but there are very conflicting views on his profile.
