Arms, arms, arms. Ray Flowers reviews the plight of a bevy of arms in this Ramblings entry. Some of the arms are off to solid starts (Buchholz, Morton, Price, Sabathia, Smith), others are a bit cold (Hendricks, Kluber, Mikolas, Straham) while still others are sitting in some sort of limbo-like blah state (Bumgarner, Holland, Lauer, Rodon, Stroman, Zimmermann).
Clay Buchholz is a tease. In his first outing of the year he posted six innings with one run scored. That’s an ERA under 2.00 his last 17 outings leading back to the start of last season. So why do I say he is a tease? He last threw 140-innings in 2014 as he’s constantly on the shelf. He has one season in eight years with an ERA under 3.25 when he’s thrown 100 innings. He also doesn’t miss enough bats with a K/9 of 6.49 his last 56 outings with a swinging strike rate of 9.5 percent. As a result, he has a 2.26 K/BB ratio and 1.11 HR/9 rate since the start of the 2016 season. I’m just not interested unless its spot starting duty in mixed leagues.
Madison Bumgarner is starting to round into form. Over four starts, MadBum has a 5.75 K/BB ratio, well above his career 4.15 mark. Sounds great. However, his 7.96 K/9 rate isn’t up to his career standards (8.73), though his swinging strike rate this season is actually up three tenths leaving some hope the K-rate will go up. I’m particularly encouraged by the massive 75 pitch first pitch strike rate as he’s just not beating himself. Pretty sure his 18.5 percent HR/FB rate will regress given that he owns a 10.0 percent mark of his career and has been under 10.8 percent in 5-of-6 years leading into this one.
Kyle Hendricks is starting to round into form. OK, that may be wishful thinking, at least a bit, so let’s say this; Hendricks has walked two batters in two outings. Last time out he allowed three runs, two earned. Keep an eye on that left on base rate. The last three seasons the mark has been at least 75 percent, and through three outings this season the mark is languishing at 61 percent.
Derek Holland made three bad pitches Sunday and it led to four runs in six innings against the Rockies. Through four outings he’s been what was expected – just a guy. He’s allowed three or fewer runs in three of four outings, and he does have a rather impressive, though not sustainable rate, of 11.05 strikeouts per nine. He’s a viable mixed league auction when he’s pitching in San Francisco.
Corey Kluber is starting to cause some concern, but for what it’s worth… (1) Kluber’s worst ERA in any month in his career is April (3.84). The mark is 3.32 or less every other month. Last season his ERA was 4.08 in June and he still had a 2.89 ERA on the year (the mark is currently 6.16 in four outings), so one rough month isn’t necessarily enough to crater his performance. (2) The strikeouts are still there, but the walks are out of control (though, to be fair, he walked four guys his first three outings and then five last time out so even that statement isn’t totally fair). This is odd given that he is at a career best 65.6 percent on his first pitch strike rate. However, his 37 percent total of pitches in the strike zone is light years from his 45 percent mark. He’s getting strike one, and then its becoming the wild, wild west for Kluber. I’m not close to giving up on Kluber though. Time is on his side.
Eric Lauer might just be a solid innings eater this season, but the spring training excitement is starting to wane as he has one quality start in four outings. He’s allowed four homers his last three outings as well, and his 46 percent hard-hit rate, combined with his 45 percent pull rate, has helped contribute to his elevated homer total. He has a 7.36 K/9 and 8.6 swinging strike rate which are sub-par numbers. I don’t see anything downright scary here, but unless he misses more bats, his slightly below average GB/FB ratio is going to leave him in potential danger from the homer.
Miles Mikolas had a strong season last year, but this year his control has been a bit off in the early going. Though he missed just 6.55 bats per nine last season he was able to get by on his pinpoint control. Here’s what has gone wrong in the early going. (1) His K/9 rate has gone from awful last season to hideous this year at 4.71 per nine with a 6.2 swinging strike rate. I’m gonna give him some benefit of the doubt here, #samplesize, but the number has to get back to last year’s levels. (2) The BB/9 rate has gone from an otherworldly 1.30 last season to merely an impressive 2.14 this season. He’s actually thrown three percent more of his pitches in the zone, though his first pitch strike rate is down about seven percent. (3) His HR/FB rate has more than doubled from 9.2 to 19.2 percent. That’s just a sample size issue, especially with his hard-hit ball rate only up four percent and his fly ball rate up to just 35 percent. There are concerns, but it’s too early to panic.
Charlie Morton is what he is. He’s solid, gets boatloads of strikeouts, but also doesn’t go deep into games and there are long-term workload concerns with him as well. He’s only thrown 20.2 innings in four starts, but he has 25 strikeouts in those innings. You could live with all that, but his BB/9 rate is all the way up at 4.35 per nine, and he’s just not going to be effective long-term without bring that number down (the mark was under 3.50 each of the last two seasons).
David Price is gonna be solid this season, for however long he’s on the bump. He’s thrown at least six innings in all three starts, and last time out he took advantage of an overmatched Orioles club to work seven shutout innings with no walks and seven strikeouts. In those three starts he’s allowed just three walks with 20 punchouts in 19 innings. Solid is as solid does.
Carlos Rodon is another one of those teases. He has three outings of 0/2 earned runs allowed the season with an 11.86 K/9 rate. He’s also been fortunate to have not allowed a single homer despite a 39 percent fly ball rate (career 1.06 HR/9 rate), and he’s extremely fortunate to have a 3.27 ERA with a left on base rate of 61.5 percent. He also has a four year low in terms of pitches in the strike zone and a four year low in his first pitch strike rate. Talented but, as always it seems, it’s buyer beware.
CC Sabathia returned with rather remarkable efficiency allowing one hit over five shutout innings against the White Sox. Some folks seemingly have forgotten that in 29 outings last season he posted a 3.65 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. He’s not likely to be any better this season, but he’s also not likely to be appreciably worse.
Caleb Smith continues to rack up the strike outs in the early going with 21 in 17 innings. There’s still that somewhat scary fly ball rate, it’s a bit down from last season but still elevated at 46 percent, so he’s always going to be league average or worse in the homer column (currently 1.06 per nine). The walk rate is at a league average level of 3.18 which would be more than a half batter below his mark last season. If that isn’t a sample size issue, he could be awfully solid this season. Still, his first pitch strike rate, and the amount of pitches he is throwing in the strike zone, are both three-year lows. A power arm with concerns.
Matt Strahm, much like his teammate Lauer, has had a bit of a slow start to the season. He’s made three starts with a terrible 5.68 K/9 rate. Everyone agrees Matt has a big arm, but it hasn’t really been on display. Why? If you don’t get ahead in the count, it really doesn’t matter. To this point he’s thrown a first pitch strike just 51 percent of the time. He’s failing behind, getting hit, and he’s not able to put batters away as a result (8.7 swinging strike rate). Strike one. If you don’t throw it, you aren’t going to impress.
Marcus Stroman has long been one of my favorites, but he has rarely lived up to my expectations. In four starts he’s allowed three or fewer runs each time out leading to a 1.99 ERA. He’s even punched out 23 batters in 22.2 innings. He’s walked far too many, that 3.97 BB/9 rate is a batter and half above his normal rate, so as soon as that turns around things could improve. I like the talent, the delivery/athleticism, the grounders. Let’s see if he can recapture the form that led to 13 wins, a 3.09 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP with 164 strikeouts in 2017. I think he can.
Jordan Zimmermann was hot allowing one run in two outings, and now he is not after allowing 10 runs his last two outings (nine earned). So, after four starts we have a 4.29 ERA, 6.43 strikeouts per nine, 1.71 homers per nine, a 0.74 GB/FB ratio and… which is a normal four game run for JZ at this stage of his career.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
