As we enter the offseason, there’s a new format that’s emerged over the last couple of seasons which has caught the attention of many. In fact, it’s the preferred way to play for a lot of fantasy football enthusiasts. Best Ball.
Between DRAFT, Fanball (BestBall10s) and a few other established sites, there’s plenty of variety and fun to be had. Lobbies are open, ADPs have been created, and values have emerged. The goal of this article is to identify players who are currently undervalued (or overvalued) and will provide depth in the later rounds of best ball drafts.
While the offseason is supposed to be the “down” part of the year, the NFL has truly become a 24 hour, 365 day a year sport. Between off-field issues, trades, rap videos and free agency/draft movement, even in the heart of April, there’s a lot of information to account for in the NFL. ADP was taken from April 1st to the 15th, so this information is fresh and represents some of the information that’s about to be written about.
I didn’t wake up this morning with the intention of being a Negative Nancy, but here we are. After running through the first 12 sections of Best Ball Values, it’s getting to the point where a significant amount of the player pool has already been reviewed. Considering that, there’s a dilution point between “value” and “avoid.” This is that point, but there are still plenty of players to discuss who cohabit the middle grounds. Today’s group is a bunch of talented options that might have awkward situations in 2019. There’s always upside with raw talent, but especially early in the offseason, it’s important to limit risks of “low floor” players as much as possible.
VALUES
TJ HOCKENSON (TE) — DRAFT ADP, 151.6; BESTBALL10s ADP, 160.5
This is much more of a rookie TE thing than a negative on Hockenson. Hockenson profiles like a three-down featured tight end and, despite having somewhat limited college production (due to splitting snaps with TE Noah Fant and Iowa’s system), doesn’t appear to be a prospect who is overrated in any sense. With that said, most TEs who eventually become top-end fantasy contributors struggle in year one. It’s probably starting to sound like a broken record, but TEs have many more responsibilities on a football field than catching the ball, so year one is usually spent learning systems and NFL blocking assignments. Since 1970, just eight TEs have had a rookie season with 600 or more receiving yards, and just one of those is this decade (Giants TE Evan Engram in 2017). It would take a lot of things to go right for Hockenson to get 600 or more receiving yards in his rookie season, and based on where he’s currently being drafted, that’s bordering on an assumption. Hockenson currently has an ADP on Draft four spots higher than Baltimore Ravens second-year TE Mark Andrews, and that seems like an unneeded risk.
HUNTER HENRY (TE, CHARGERS) — DRAFT ADP, 63.1; BESTBALL10s ADP, 63.5
Henry was one of the most intriguing upside TE plays at the position heading into last offseason. Henry’s mid-offseason major injury was a brutal setback, which cost Henry (and his fantasy owners) a potentially very productive season. After posting 478 receiving yards and eight touchdowns as a rookie, Henry followed that up with a very solid 579 receiving yard, 45 reception 2017 season. By the end of the year, Henry had pushed longtime veteran TE Antonio Gates aside and had emerged as one of QB Philip Rivers favorite targets. A lot has changed in that time, and there’s new competition for targets. In 2018, the Chargers asserted themselves as one of the best and most effective running teams in the NFL. As long as RB Melvin Gordon is healthy, he’s automatically claiming 20-to-25 touches per game. Add in WR Keenan Allen figuring out a way to stay healthy, and the top two options in the offense are solidified. Those two were known commodities already, though. The big difference heading into the 2019 season is WR Mike Williams, who emerged as not only a dominant red-zone threat but a player who could one day command a featured role. Williams displayed immense potential in his first healthy NFL season, and the release of WR Tyrell Williams is a blinking red sign the Chargers will be looking to make (Mike) Williams’ third season a special one. It’s not all doom and gloom for Henry, as he’s set to have open lanes in a high powered offense; the only point of contention would be his ceiling, which based on the current depth of talent around him, appears capped. Henry is currently being drafted around high upside WR options like Tyler Boyd, D.J. Moore and Tyler Lockett. That’s a tough sell.
NYHEIM HINES (RB, COLTS) — DRAFT ADP, 125.7; BESTBALL10s ADP, 102.0
A lot of the offseason focus pertaining to the Colts RB depth chart has been squarely on Marlon Mack, but Hines has seen his ADP land in a fairly high equity range. Not only is Hines going in the top ten rounds, but sometimes he even gets reached for in the eighth. There’s no denying a RB who receives a reasonable workload in an Andrew Luck/Frank Reich offense will be in a great position for fantasy points, but it’s still far too early to guarantee that role to him. Yes, the Colts ignored RB in free agency, and yes, Hines showed signs of being a really positive influence on the offense in spurts in 2018. But, the draft is shortly upon us, and there’s still a risk the Colts bring in a RB through the draft. Mack has played well also but hasn’t been a model of consistently from a health standpoint. While the 2019 RB class isn’t stocked with future featured weapons, there’s a significant amount of prospects that project as, at least, committee type players. If the Colts do bring in a third or fourth round type prospect, he could nudge Hines out of enough touches to make him a liability from a fantasy perspective. Hines is a fine player and would be worth investing in IF the Colts ignore RB in the draft. Until that point, he’s a big risk.
DUKE JOHNSON (RB, BROWNS) — DRAFT ADP, 169.5; BESTBALL10s ADP, 139.7
Johnson has long been a favorite of mine. As a prospect out of Miami, Johnson was constantly creating special plays over the course of his three-season career. After getting drafted in the third round in the 2015 NFL draft, Johnson was one of the few bright spots for the embarrassing three-year run Cleveland Browns had from 2015-to-2017, but things changed in 2018. The Browns drafted RB Nick Chubb in the second round and signed Carlos Hyde last offseason, then brought in RB Kareem Hunt earlier this offseason. Despite being healthy in 2018, Johnson only saw 87 touches in 2018, which included a switch in the coaching staff (to Freddie Kitchen) that ultimately stuck moving forward. Last week, Johnson and his team made it clear they were looking for a way out of his current situation, leaking he requested a trade. If Johnson does eventually get traded to a team that would use him optimally, he could be a great value at where he’s currently being drafted, but as things stand now, he’s a big risk for getting shut out of a significant role for fantasy purposes. Yes, Hunt is suspended for the first half of the season, but that’s no guarantee Johnson will have a role. In the second half of last season, the Browns used Chubb as a featured weapon at the expense of Johnson, and there’s a real chance that happens again. Talent alone doesn’t win fantasy leagues, and Johnson is too much of a role-risk to draft where he’s currently going. Sure, it’s in the double-digit rounds, but even at that price range, there are others with more secure projections.
