Welcome to my weekly Free Agent Acquisition Bidding/Budget (FAAB) column where my goal is to have you confidently prepared to acquire the hitters and pitchers off free agency or waivers to make your team better. Like most everything else in life, you get out what you put in. Those quickly slapping one and two dollar bids together at the last second very rarely stay competitive in a game where FAAB is of the utmost importance. Properly setting our squads up for the following week starts with our efforts in FAAB, and those who spend the proper time on it, are usually rewarded. They’re either catching lightning in a bottle with someone who provides value for the rest of the year, or they’re renting someone who has immediate impact and value based on upcoming matchups.
Churning and burning is important, no matter the size of your league (10, 12, 15), though the smaller the league, the more active you need to be in FAAB. The art of FAAB isn’t just about picking up the right players as a rental or for the long-term. It involves a fine balance with also being sure you’re not dropping the wrong players prematurely. Here’s a refresher from draft season on how to manage FAAB.
Two-Start PITCHERS
It’s the wildest week of two-start pitchers this season. Absolutely insane! Plenty of tough decisions to be made. The following pitchers are projected to go twice this week, and you really should not think twice about starting them:
Bauer, Nola, Syndergaard, Castillo, Paxton, Boyd, Strasburg, Glasnow, McHugh, Kershaw, Kikuchi, Ray, Lucchesi, Darvish, Woodruff, Matz (maybe on Matz) – if anything, I can see your reservation for waiting to see how Kershaw or Darvish look, but that would only make sense if they were starting once. With two starts, you just roll them out and don’t overthink it – and of course, hope for the best.
Listed beside each player is their ownership in both 12-team NFBC Online Championships (OC) and Yahoo!. You can assume if someone is listed as an option for 12-teamers, then he’s a no-brainer addition in 15-team leagues (if available). I’ll be sure to point out pitchers to consider in 15-team leagues as well.
Max Fried, LH/ATL (v ARI, @ CLE): 81% OC, 55% Y! – Low on the strikeouts (18.4%), but no runs allowed through two starts and two relief appearances. One of those starts was a dreaded one at Coors Field that you likely benched if you owned him. He’ll have his bumps along the road, but it’s hard to pass up this two-step against the Dbacks and Indians if you own him. Bid wise, he’s worth up to 25% of your 12-team budget if you feel your staff has been weakened by injuries thus far.
Freddy Peralta, RH/MLW (v STL, v LAD): 99%, 43% – The 22-year-old is nearly 100% owned in OC’s and likely won’t see much of a bump in ownership on other sites following his 7-ER blowup against the Angels. Peralta is just 22 and has a bright future ahead of him, but he needs to mix in other offerings with that killer fastball of his. Even a 70% rate of a fastball being deployed per start won’t get it done. Tough two-start week on paper, but I’d play him if I had him. And if he’s available in your league, perhaps he shouldn’t cost all that much.
Trevor Richards, RH/MIA (v CHC, v WAS): 97%, 31% – Three solid starts so far has led to a 9.0 K/9 and a 2.00 ERA despite a 4.89 xFIP. Works primarily off a below-average 91 mph fastball and a changeup but mixes four pitches in for typical starts. I’d start him for these two if you own him, and he’s got long-term value in 12’s all season despite playing for a team that won’t often provide him with run support and even get him to 13 wins.
Nick Pivetta, RH/PHI (v NYM, @ COL): 100%, 66% – To some, Pivetta is already dead to them after getting blasted yet again. You’ll even see some folks drop him, especially when they see ‘@ COL’ on the schedule this week. Manager Gabe Kapler was more critical of Pivetta in that last start than he’s been with any Phillie since taking over the team. He basically said Pivetta was pitching without purpose or conviction. Pivetta really hasn’t seen any sort of drop-off with his arsenal, and I’d like to excuse him for his recent efforts, expecting we’ll see better. Call me crazy, but I’m not giving up on his talent and may just run him out there for this dicey two-start week.
Matt Shoemaker, RH/TOR (@ MIN, @ OAK): 89%, 74% – He’s been pitching well so you’d be hard-pressed not to start him. Just two runs allowed through three starts (19.2 IP), both on home runs. Only issue here is that it’s a tough hitter’s park and you’ve got two strong offenses on their way to visit. I’d play him in 15-teamers and dig in deeper for 12’s.
Aaron Sanchez, RH/TOR (@ MIN, @ OAK): 94%, 25% – Same concern here as Shoemaker, and I do think Sanchez is the better pitcher, so I’m more willing to start him. Sanchez’s biggest drawback is his lack of control – a 12.7% walk rate thus far this season and 12.2% last season. For the record, the A’s rank 24th in walk rate so far in 2019 (7.6%) and the Twins, second-to-last (6.7%), so perhaps Sanchez is worth a whirl in all formats. Nevertheless, both he and Shoemaker should be owned in all 12-team formats, but given the division they pitch out of, I wouldn’t bid more than 15% of your FAAB budget for their services.
Mike Minor, LH/TEX (v LAA, v HOU): 51%, 13% – Wouldn’t mind these starts if I knew Mike Trout was going to sit out. That second one (v HOU) is more dangerous, especially with all those scary RH bats for the Astros. I’d consider sitting this double out.
Kyle Gibson, RH/MIN (v TOR, @ BAL): 83%, 15% – Not a Gibson fan at all, and you guys know that. But I’d consider a small bid for him for this two-step based upon the fact he’ll be facing two bottom-10 offenses and could drop some nice outings on us.
15-team streamers (ownership listed for 12-team OC and Yahoo! like above)
Martin Perez, LH/MIN (v TOR, @ BAL): 2%, 0% – I do believe Perez will make this the week he sticks in the rotation. Saw a massive uptick in velocity in the spring, and he won’t cost much in 12-team bidding this week. I’d for sure to bid for him in 15-team leagues but wouldn’t break the bank for him.
Dereck Rodriguez, RH/SFG (@ WAS, @ PIT): 55%, 28% – Not a fan of D-Rod or these two starts. He defied all logic last season with his 2.81 ERA in 118 IP (4.56 xFIP), and thus far in 2019, he’s made three starts and has a 4.15 ERA and 17.4% K-rate. On the bright side, he’s walked just one batter in 17 innings. Up to you, but I’m not feeling too froggy. Perhaps a light bid in 15-team leagues, but I’d avoid in 12’ers.
Tyler Anderson, LH/COL (@ SD, v PHI): 1%, 1% – Anderson does occasionally surprise us, but right now, the Padres are a team we don’t want to pick on and the Phillies coming to Coors smells like danger. There’s maybe a 15% chance this turns out to be a beneficial two-step for fantasy owners, but not a risk I’m willing to take. ON THE IL
Tyler Mahle, RH/CIN (@ LAD, @ SD): 5%, 7% – He got picked up on a ton of 15-teamers where available because of the single-start against the Marlins – and he did not disappoint. This is a whole new situation here with two tough starts. I’d probably pass on starting him this week in 15’s because the Dodgers are swinging with abandon and have some very tough lefty bats. Mahle was the league’s worst pitcher against lefties last season.
Dakota Hudson, RH/STL (@ MLW, v NYM): 54%, 9% – The Cardinals have some magic potion for their starting pitchers (I mean, look how long Wainwright’s been able to keep this up for). But the issue here is his opponents. There are very few pitchers I’d start at Miller Park, and the Mets are certainly no picnic either, even if that start is at home. If you own him, can’t fault you for starting him, but I wouldn’t go nuts for a bid here.
FULL AVOID
Dan Straily, RH/BAL (@ BOS, v MIN); Ervin Santana, RH/CHW (v KC, @ DET); Dylan Bundy, RH/BAL (@ TB, v MIN); Matt Harvey, RH/LAA (@ TEX, v SEA); Heath Fillmyer, RH/KCR (@ CWS, @ NYY); Jorge Lopez, RH/KCR (@ CWS, @ NYY)
You’re playing with fire with most of these guys. The guy most likely to fire two good starts here is Bundy, but he’s just not someone I mess with in general. If he gets dropped in my 15-teamer, I just don’t bid, and if he beats me and has a magical season, so be it. But adding him to my team makes me tempted to start him, and I don’t want to do that. I have respect for Lopez, but this isn’t the two-start week to do it. Only guy with a solid two starts on paper who I’d consider is Santana, so I won’t talk you out of him. I’m sure he’ll have some good starts this season. But he hasn’t been healthy since 2017, posted an 8.03 ERA in five starts last season and already allowed 7 ER in his first start this season (in just 3.2 innings).
SCHEDULE NOTES
Teams with 7 games: Phillies, Reds, Brewers, Dodgers, Orioles, Blue Jays, White Sox, Royals, Twins, Angels, Mariners
Teams with 5 games: Pirates, Astros, Athletics
THE GOOD
- Phillies have a high/low split, but you’ve got to play them all. First up, a tough home series against the Mets (likely Thor/Matz/Wheeler), followed by four games at Coors Field.
- Dodgers should continue their hot-hitting ways. They’ll get three at home against the Reds but will sadly miss out on DeSclafani. They then head to hitter-haven Miller Park (MLW) for four.
- Twins have been oddly playing fewer games than the rest of the league, but that’s just scheduling. We even had a series where Nelson Cruz could hit our bench because he’s a DH who was visiting an NL park. Everything should be made up for this weekend with a four-game series against the Blue Jays and three at Camden (BAL). Any opportunity to use bats against Orioles pitching, we’ve got to take it.
- Love the White Sox’ schedule this week with 3 v KCR and 4 @ DET. Not sure of the exact rotation yet, but they might catch Fillmyer vs. KC and Zimmermann/Norris/Ross at Detroit.
THE BAD
- Reds might have a Mexico hangover. You know Puig and company will have gotten their swerve on south of the border before heading to L.A. for a four-game series, including the return of Clayton Kershaw. Then another tough series facing what will likely be three Padres’ lefties. I’d consider sitting all Reds in 12-teamers outside of Votto, Suarez and Puig. It’s not great news for lefty bats like Scott Schebler and Jesse Winker.
- Not that you’d load up on Giants anyways, but their schedule will be tough this week. They’ll face Strasburg and Corbin in a three-game series in the nation’s capital, followed by three at Pittsburgh facing Archer and Taillon.
- Tough sledding for our Braves fringe bats like Camargo and Markakis. First, a weekend series against the Dbacks (including Robbie Ray), but it’s nowhere near as frightening as facing the Indians’ trio of Kluber, Bauer and Bieber.
- Angels may see four southpaws this week, which is bad news for Justin Bour and Kole Calhoun.
HITTERS – 15-TEAM ADDS
Daniel Vogelbach (1B), LH/SEA (75% owned in Main Event 15’s) – Apparently, an entire weekend of slaying baseballs wasn’t enough for folks in every Main Event league to add Vogelbach for roto services. Clearly, what he’s done the past week (six homers in seven games) isn’t sustainable. And Vogy will mostly sit against southpaws (especially when Jay Bruce is back). But his power is undeniable, and he’s worth spending up to 25% of your budget if you absolutely need a power spark. Of course, we’re in Week 4, so if your offense is loaded but just off to a slow start, that’s not a reason to go nutty bidding on a power bat. Only go big if team context (your roto team) dictates you do. Famous last words, but I don’t think he’s hitting 35 HR this year.
Greg Bird (1B), LH/NYY (83%) – With half this offense on IL, Bird gets the opportunity to play every day. The Yankees have an all-home week with some very beatable pitchers, including four rather scrumptious starting pitchers to pounce on (Royals). Bird is the bat you want to add for your power needs. You sit him when the team has a lefty-heavy schedule, but that’s not the case this week (5 of 6 RHP).
Cedric Mullins (OF), SW/BAL (86%) – Hitting a putrid .114 would put himself in danger of being demoted on any other team, but probably not the Orioles. He had a two-triple game earlier in the week but otherwise hasn’t done much this season other than getting moved out of the leadoff spot to the nine-hole against righties. That’s fine and means it won’t cost much for his services. Really nothing more than a $1 or $2 stash for your bench, as most have given up on him.
Dwight Smith Jr. (OF), LH/BAL (71%) – Let’s stick with some Orioles here. How about one who’s been #actually productive? I recommended Smith last week, yet, he still hasn’t been that popular of a bid. Nine runs scored, a couple homers and two steals in his first 16 games. Decent value in 15’s.
Raimel Tapia (OF), LH/COL (70%) – Don’t let one poor week move you away from him. Tapia is a slap hitter but one who could hit for average. They’re heading to Coors for a four-game series with the Phillies, who have all righties taking the mound.
Jarrod Dyson (OF), LH/ARZ (49%) – Need stolen bases? Someone who won’t hurt you in average? A guy with a decent track record as a contact hitter? Someone who leads off against RHPs? Well then, Dyson is your man.
Hunter Dozier (1B/3B), RH/KCR (25%) – A couple of homers this past week and a nice seven-game road schedule. Dozier ranks top-40 among hitters this season in a few statcast spots, including Brls/PA% and EV. Someone I always thought would never amount to much as a big-leaguer, but there are now signs of hope.
Luis Urias (2B), RH/SDP (22%) – Part of this lovely youth movement for the Padres, Urias is a solid prospect and a good hitter. Just doesn’t offer much in terms of power nor speed, so careful overbidding on the name. Not to mention, Urias may not get everyday at-bats.
Terrance Gore (OF), RH/KCR (0%) – Mostly if Billy Hamilton’s injury keeps him out for a bit. Hamilton collided with the wall in Thursday’s game and had to be carted off. He has an MCL sprain, but no word if he’ll be hitting the IL. Keep an eye on this situation, because Gore is just as fast as Billy and literally the only thing this guy does is steal bases.
Austin Romine (C), RH/NYY (0%) – Only because Sanchez is on IL, and you probably need a second catcher.
HITTERS – 12-TEAM ADDS
Brandon Lowe (2B), LH/TBR (81% owned in 12-team OC’s) – Believe I am on my third week in a row begging you to pick up all the Tampa Bay Rays. Lowe smashed another two homers on Friday and continues to bat cleanup against right-handed pitchers. A 30% k-rate is something to be concerned with, but not enough to not bid heftily on his services. I added Lowe in 12-teamers two weeks ago, and if I were bidding on him today, I’d spend about 20-25% of my budget for him if my team needed the MI.
Chad Pinder (2B/OF), RH/OAK (67%) – Wait, you don’t own this guy yet? Well, you definitely don’t in the leagues you’re in with me, because I drafted all the shares of Pinder I could get. Will remind you only Ryan Braun had a higher hard-hit rate against lefty arms last year and Pinder is killin’ it! I don’t mean in terms of exit velocity, because his average rate this year is mildly above league average (90%), but I mean his production. Three homers, 10 runs scored and a .308 average. Doing it all without taking walks (under two percent walk rate), but the strikeout rate (12.7%) and ISO (.250) is impressive. Not to mention, playing against both lefties and righties.
Manuel Margot (OF), RH/SDP (73%) – Part of a crowded outfield in the beautiful city of San Diego. Can probably snag him for cheap, and I do like their schedule this week with six home games (2 v COL, 4 v CIN).
Yonder Alonso (1B), LH/CWS (73%) – It’s all about schedule here, as I don’t mind renting Yonder for the week of services simply because the White Sox have seven games and some weak opposing SPs (3 home v KC, 4 @ DET).
Willy Adames (SS), RH/TBR (66%) – Hits at or near the bottom of the order mostly so affects his value a bit, but once again – get all the Rays! On a mini six-game hit streak, including multi-hit games in four of those. If you need the middle infield spot, here you go. And he shouldn’t be pricey.
Miguel Sano (3B), RH/MIN (63%) – On his way back and heading to a minor league assignment soon. It’ll get crowded in that infield soon, but Sano should find his way to at-bats most games because of his raw power. A stash to get ahead of your competition if you want his power. Only doable for your rosters if they’re deep enough to take on someone you have to wait for a couple of weeks.
Joey Wendle (2B/3B), LH/TBR (59%) – Also on the way back soon. One of the Rays’ best hitters last season (hit .300 as a rookie), Wendle will get back to a crowded roster but should be in the lineup against righties mostly. He’ll have a short rehab assignment starting mid-week and will be back next week. A one or two dollar conditional bid in 12-teamers and worth more in 15’s.
Leonys Martin (OF), LH/CLE (58%) – Wait, you don’t own this guy? He’s basically the Indians best hitter! Just waiting for Lindor to return and Jo-Ram to get his head out of his ass. Martin has nine walks in 50 PA (through Friday’s games) which is a massive 18% rate – which is triple his career rate, so don’t worry, that’ll be normalizing. Either way, a .225 ISO thus far and he’ll start running soon. Not sure why he’s only 58% owned in OC’s but he pretty much must be owned.
