One of the biggest debates in dynasty leagues is, and has always been, how to appropriately weigh the age and experience of assets on a dynasty roster. Both sides of the coin have redeeming qualities and negatives, but there are some truths that ring true. There are a few bases (four in this piece!) that are important to have a solid grasp on to sustain success in a dynasty league, and as with any dynasty-related topic, running through how any topic applies through those bases is a great way to learn.
Below are three sections which are essential to evaluate, and a summary of how age-based roster building should be applied.
LEAGUE SETTINGS
Before getting into some of the most integral factors to evaluate players, let’s remember that format and league settings are incredibly important to evaluate. Roster size and league size can significantly affect strategy, especially on the extremes. For some high stakes dynasty formats (FFPC) roster spots are scarce (16 to 20), which makes it much more difficult to wait on developing players. Some dynasty leagues have 30 or more roster spots, which makes sitting on young players much easier. The lower the roster requirements, the less depth matters, and the less depth matters, the more teams can get away with not having a backup plan.
To simplify this, multiply the number of teams in the league by the numbers of roster spots.
EXAMPLE
League Size: 12
Roster Spots Per Team: 25
Total Players Rostered: 12*25 = 300
That number can be used for determining what type of quality will be on the waiver wire. Another general rule — the stronger the waiver wire, the less depth matters, the weaker, the more it matters. If it’s a 10 team league with 20 roster spots, that means only 200 players will be rostered at a time, a full 100 less players than the example.
This is also true for starting lineup requirements. Some leagues only start eight players, some start 11 or more. Some leagues are super-flex, some are tight-end premium. All of these factors should be shifting roster building strategy, and depending on where the fantasy football landscape is, can shift if the optimal strategy is youth or veteran driven. Especially at positions like tight end (where there are very few difference-makers) in larger leagues, that position can be leveraged in a significant way. Depth is essential for large weekly starting requirements (10+), especially as the year progress (injuries).
To simplify this, multiply the number of teams by numbers of weekly starters:
EXAMPLE
League Size: 12
Weekly Starting Requirements Per Team: 10
Total Players Starting Per Week: 12*10 = 120
Looking at the number of 120, it gives good context just how many players are being thrown out there on a given week, and clearly, a lot of them won’t be top options. If it’s a ten team league that only starts nine players, then that’s only 90 players in play in a given week. This makes it important to see where you view saturation points at positions. In larger leagues, single start positions (QB and TE) can dry up quickly, and become more of an advantage than expected. In smaller leagues, those positions can become completely expendable and worth punting.
HAVING A BASE
Much like managing stock or any type of perceived asset, there’s a market equity factor that goes along with owning a dynasty team. While perceived value isn’t as good as actual value, having a lot of perceived value can boost opportunity to acquire better assets in trades and the rookie draft. One of the reasons why it was suggested to hold onto future rookie draft picks in this rookie draft article was because it’s important to have a back-up plan if things don’t go as expected. While a win-now opportunity can display itself, stripping a roster of future assets and making a run for a current season is the top reason why folks end up leaving dynasty leagues. There are ways to shift towards a win-now related roster WITHOUT sacrificing the entire future; it may just take some creativity.
A Roster’s market equity revolves around three different types of assets:
- Young players with elite (Top 5) positional value
- Quality of roster depth
- Volume of future assets (rookie picks)
Every roster has differing quality in these areas, and the best teams will likely have some of each. Owning a player like Atlanta Falcons WR Julio Jones or Oakland Raiders WR Antonio Brown is fantastic for in-season, Week-to-Week value, but now that they’ve both hit age 30, their trade and market value will only go down from here on out. Warranted or not, a player’s dynasty value revolves heavily around age. Ultimately their reaches a point, even with elite players like Jones and Brown, where their value in a starting lineup surpasses their value in the trade market. A team built on those types of assets will be lethal in the first couple seasons after the startup draft, but ultimately has no way out in a long term sense. That isn’t to say don’t roster these players, simply that, they can’t be the base of a team’s market/perceived value.
Having an elite, young player can salvage a roster at any point. With players like Saints WR Michael Thomas or Pittsburgh Steelers WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, they have flexibility in being able to provide a league-winning week-to-week lineup advantage, and, at any point, being able to net a bounty of assets in a trade. The goal of every dynasty team should be to acquire as many of these top-end assets as they can, but obviously, that isn’t an easy task.
Future picks are the best way to have a backup/insurance plan, and also, they’re the only asset in dynasty leagues that will, without fail, gain in value as the season moves along. Some players go a little overboard with stacking rookie picks (we’ll get into that next), but generally speaking, it’s the best way to store perceived value on a team. Rookie picks can’t get injured, have off-field issues or decline in play.
Lastly, there’s the middle class; a player like Los Angeles Rams WR Robert Woods. Woods carries some dynasty value, is very valuable week-to-week in a starting lineup, and is middle aged for an NFL WR (27). Woods isn’t particularly exciting as an asset, but he’s a known contributor on a good team with a solid role. He carries value in a trade but also is very valuable on a win-now team. This is where depth comes into play, and owning a bunch of significant contributors with solid value can help buoy a high-end player dropping in value.
WINNING NOW vs. LATER
The final rule, and arguably the most important, for dynasty is this: The number one strategy-based goal should always be about WINNING. There’s a lot of reasons folks play fantasy football, and at least a portion of that revolves around FUN, but it’s important to recognize there can be fun while also being strategically sound. Whether it’s optimizing the future to dominate a league for multiple seasons, or making a win-now move to secure a current season title, finding ways to optimize odds of winning is essential.
This section is the crux of the youth and veteran debate. Should the goal to be to win-now, or later? Some (me) would argue both are possible if balanced correctly. As mentioned above, going all in on veterans is the most unhealthy way to manage a dynasty team, but the second most popular way dynasty teams are destroyed is avoiding all currently productive assets for future assets (future rookie picks, developmental players), subsequently surrendering multiple seasons to rebuild. While it can work, the idea of purposely stripping a team of its valuable assets and throwing away multiple seasons (and league fees) to rebuild is an unneeded risk. There are cheap ways to compete in a given season, and barring some catastrophic injuries, most teams should start out almost every season with SOME hopes of the playoffs.
A player like Arizona Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald isn’t appealing to look at on a dynasty roster during the offseason, but that 35 year old is a welcomed sight in Week 6 when bye weeks are hitting. The same thing applies for almost all players that are age 30 or above. There will always be a revolving door of veterans who stick around much longer than expected. Before Fitzgerald, it was Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, Anquan Boldin and Reggie Wayne. Before that, it was Derrick Mason and Donald Driver. While these players can’t create a contender on their own, they’re win-now assets that can provide a large boost while being cost-effective. Dynasty league rankers started dropping New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees and New England Patriots QB Tom Brady in dynasty rankings probably around a decade ago, and each year they provide QB1 numbers. Those two can be stable assets in a weekly lineup for little-to-no cost. Being willing to ride prospects “until the wheels come off” can be an effective strategy, despite its lack of offseason appeal. As long as there is a “base” of roster equity of fall back on if the current season falls apart, stacking a bunch of cheap, win-now vets for a shot at a championship is totally acceptable.
