Every week of April can feature words of advice about not panicking, but as I mentioned in last week’s column, it’s in our nature as fantasy baseball managers. The number of injuries through the first two weeks appear to be staggering. Those feeling on top of the world after Mike Clevinger’s first two starts were hit with a rude awakening when word from the clubhouse came out that his injury may keep him from even picking up a baseball for at least two months. A huge blow for those of us who spent a top-60 overall pick on him. I happen to have Clev as my #2 starter on three of five NFBC OC’s, so I’ll just have to deal with it.
It adds insult to injury (literally) if you lost Clevinger and also happen to have drafted any of these guys who got hurt in the first week of the season: Matt Olson, Scooter Gennett, Daniel Murphy, Giancarlo Stanton. Some owners lost David Dahl this past week and others may have to deal with a brief IL stint for Alex Bregman. Even Mike Trout tweaked his groin on Tuesday night and may have to sit out a couple of games (hopefully avoiding the IL). If you drafted Luis Severino in the 120-150 overall range in late March, you knew the risk you were taking on. Severino’s setback now makes it tough for us with short benches as to whether it’s worth waiting on him or dropping him. Worst of all, Chris Sale owners simply have to be in a panic after his first three starts. It’s hard to bench your first-round pick. Perhaps we’ll find out that he’s hurt and needs to be shutdown. Any way you slice it, this early part of the season has been a disaster. So how do we handle our teams when the injury bug keeps buzzing?
Save your FAAB dollars
This is a difficult concept to follow through on when panic ensues when you’ve lost two or three of your top seven picks. I’ve been hit hard with injuries by many of the guys listed above and so far, my hide has been covered by many of my late round value picks (Domingo Santana, Kike Hernandez, Austin Meadows, Trevor Cahill to name a few). As I mentioned last week, it’s hard not to overreact to injuries and go hard after hitters and pitchers in FAAB. The problem is, your oftentimes paying top dollar for someone coming off a hot week or series who isn’t necessarily going to break out this year.
The questions you need to ask yourself before deciding on bid amount:
- How grave is my injury situation? Can my current roster keep me above water short term?
- Does the player I’m putting a huge bid on have a strong track record of success in the majors (or if a young player, in the minors)? Or is there some skill increase (added new pitch like Frankie Montas, worked feverishly on launch angle) or contextual (used to be a fantasy asset in past seasons and now has a prime lineup slot and lots of projected playing time – Kevin Pillar)?
- How is my depth at that specific position (C, CI, MI, OF, SP, RP) and how deep is the pool of talent available on waivers? IE, are the second and third free agents available at a position truly that much worse than the guy expected to see $100+ bids this week?
One of FAAB strategies I always preach is to ‘set and step away’. I rarely save FAAB for the final hour of Sunday before the deadline where I feel rushed and might make a decision I regret later. Stepping away from your computer after setting bids to go do something offline and then logging back on to reassess and raise/lower bids is one of the wisest things you can do as a fantasy manager. In the long run you save some FAAB dollars by investing into this practice. And if these first two weeks are indeed an ominous sign, maybe not overspending in April is wise. Can you imagine what it may be like in mid-summer when players are falling like flies and you’ve spent 70% of your FA budget on mediocre fill-ins who you’ve since dropped? I’m all for being aggressive in FAAB in April/May, but we have to be assured we’re doing so for the right players. Not just because they had a great series and are currently scorching hot.
Random Tidbits
- Sure, the Mariners have played about two more games than most of the rest of teams but have you noticed just how incredibly this offense has been popping off? They lead MLB by a wide margin in RBI (103; Dodgers second with 83, Cubs third with 68). They also are the only team with over 100 runs scored, as well as team ISO (.274; Dodgers/Diamondbacks next at .248) and in wRC+ (163; Dodgers second with 138). This squad is certainly loaded and have many pieces who will be fantasy values throughout the year. They should easily finish out the season as a top-10 offense but I’m not so sure they’ll end up top-5. Domingo Santana could end up as the Team MVP with a 35-110-.275 type season and Edwin Encarnacion could easily smash another 35 homers. The one guy who is currently underperforming who might be available as a buy-low from the right owner is Mallex Smith. He’ll get going on the basepaths soon enough (SEA also holds the league lead with 15).
- Early in the season, there are only five teams whose combined strikeout rate is under 20 percent. The Angels lead the pack (15.7%), followed by the Dodgers (17.1%), Athletics (17.3%), Twins (19.4%) and Astros (19.8%). I’m impressed with the zone patience of the Twins, but you’ll start to see that rate surge when Miguel Sano returns to the lineup. A very small sample, but Byron Buxton has a career-best 23.1% k-rate through his first 26 plate appearances (31.5% career rate). It is something for us to monitor as we look forward to might finally be his big breakout. The problem is finding a way to a higher lineup slot.
- It’s an uber small sample, but Joey Gallo’s strikeout rate is down considerably (37.6% career, 26.2% so far this season) as well as his walk rate (career rate: 13.7%, 2019: 23.8%). He ranks among the top five in walks with the likes of Trout and Harper. Any improvements in plate patience could well result in a nice boost in batting average and top-20 overall production among MLB hitters. This is a dude who has smashed at least 40 bombs in each of the last two seasons.
Early season production that’s sustainable: Austin Meadows, Domingo Santana, Pete Alonso,Kike Hernandez, Adam Jones(playing for contract), DJ LeMahieu, Jeff McNeil, Jorge Polanco, Adam Frazier, Yandy Diaz
Early season production I don’t believe in: Dansby Swanson, Tim Anderson, Tim Beckham, Trey Mancini, Maikel Franco (5% K-rate is insane, slump coming), Kolten Wong, Jason Heyward, Nick Ahmed, Freddy Galvis
Next week I’ll focus a bit more on starting pitchers as we’ll have a couple more starts under their belts to assess. I’ll let you know which guys are mirages/sell high’s and guys underperforming we may want to buy low on.
