Bullpen Usage & Reliever Ratings, or BURR, is an idea that Flowers and Mans have been playing around with since the 2017 season. The reason for their focus is simply that bullpens are a more important part of the modern game than ever before. You know what we mean. Whereas at one time starting pitchers threw 220 innings, then 200… now 180 is the new baseline for upper end hurlers. Starting pitchers just don’t deep into games any more. Plenty of teams are using The Opener, further limiting the innings out of the starting rotation. The facts are obvious to all. Starting pitchers simply do not eat up as many innings as they used to.
Unfortunately, despite that fact, not enough people have taking that into account. That’s not how we’re going to roll at Fantasy Guru in 2019. We are going to continue to be ahead of the curve. Each week we will update our bullpen ratings giving you the best way to attack, or avoid, bullpens while setting your fantasy baseball lineup in the DFS game or in the season long setup.
WHAT IS BURR?
BURR takes into account 14 different categories for bullpens. For more detail on why BURR is needed and what goes into it, click on the link to the Introduction page.
HOW TO READ BURR
Under 1.00 = Any number under the league average is a negative for the bullpen and a positive for the batter. Any number under 1.00 is a bullpen to attack for the offense.
1.00 = The league average
Above 1.00 = Any number above the league average is a positive for the bullpen and a negative for the batter. Any number above 1.00 is a bullpen to avoid for the offense.
THE HIGHER THE NUMBER THE BETTER THE BULLPEN AND THE WORSE IT IS FOR THE BATTER.
THE 2019 SEASON
Here are the baseline numbers to this point of the 2019 season.
|
League |
wOBA |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
ISO |
HR/FB |
GB/FB |
|
2019 |
.319 |
.244 |
.322 |
.418 |
.174 |
14.1 |
1.16 |
Below, there will be three colors of Red, White, and Green. Here is what each color designation represents.
RED: A bullpen to avoid.
WHITE: A moderate, not moving the needle aggressively in either direction, unit.
GREEN: A bullpen to target with your batters.
We will normally be removing the homer column when looking at two-week segments. They are included here for the sack of thoroughness since the season is still in its infancy. Any number listed in YELLOW is a number that was artificially dropped to 1.50 (meaning, any HR/9 or HR/FB number over 1.50 was knocked back down to 1.50 because a number like the 5.46 of the Giants would give them a massive, and inaccurate, BURR total). The homer component of the formula is extremely tricky when looking at small sample sizes.
Second note. Not all teams have had a save yet as the Cubs, Nationals and Rockies still have bagels in the saves column. That wonks up the save conversion component. Because it’s not fair to torch a team for not having a save those teams, listed in YELLOW, will have their mark set at 0.67 percent this week.
Tons of bullpens – listed in yellow – aren’t giving up homers in the early going. The Giants, Rays, Yankees and Athletics all have HR/9 marks below 0.50. Other end of the spectrum, the Orioles (2.86 per nine), Braves (2.41) and Diamondbacks (2.37) are giving up massive big fly numbers.
The Astros simply miss bats and don’t walk anyone. Ditto the Angels.
The Jays are a surprise near the top of the list, but allowing as many fly balls as they have means it’s unlikely they will maintain those strong homer numbers.
No one is hitting the ball hard against the Rays’ bullpen.
Th Cubs bullpen is a disaster. The only thing they are doing is striking guys out and getting tons of grounders. To be fair, that 38.1 percent HR/FB ratio is absurd and will be coming down, and they really haven’t given up much hard contact to this point so not all hope is lost (the returns of Morrow and Edwards could certainly help as well).
