The NFL is built upon what college football provides. Every year, there’s a focus on incoming rookies and players who are going to make impacts for their new teams, but where did those players come from? What did they look like as underclassmen in college? How productive were they? The goal of this article is to help provide analysis that will improve readers ability to identify NFL players who are still in college. Each week, there will be four players evaluated and given an NFL projected draft position based on their current historical indicators.
There are many tidbits and clues the NFL leaves behind pertaining to what they’re looking for in an NFL Draft prospect. The basic strength, speed and athleticism are factors in building a skill position player, but it’s clear there’s more to it than that. When reviewing the NFL Draft over the last two decades, there’s statistical trends and traits NFL teams look for before selecting players as well. This article, which highlights players not yet draft eligible, will highlight those factors.
THE PROSPECTS
Jalen Knox (WR, Missouri)
Knox doesn’t have much in terms of on-field results in his career, but as a freshman in 2018, he showed a few special qualities. Knox came into the year as a recruit the staff was incredibly excited about, but because of the incumbents on the depth chart, wasn’t allowed many opportunities. Between WRs Emanuel Hall and Johnathon Johnson, along with TE Albert Okwuegbunam, there was only so many reads QB Drew Lock could go through in 2018. An injury to Hall halfway through the season opened up some snaps for Knox, but overall, it was a transition year. With that said, as mentioned up top, Knox displayed ability on his opportunities, on deep targets and close to the line of scrimmage concepts. Knox isn’t a physical or imposing presence (listed at 6 foot and 195 pounds), but instead, relies on speed, nuance and savvy ball skills to make plays. Knox finished 2018 with 419 receiving yards and three touchdowns, which, in comparison to a lot of the prospects reviewed so far, isn’t great. But in terms of freshman production, this is above average to very strong. With Hall gone in 2018, that opens up a big set of targets in the passing game, and barring something strange (off-field issues or injuries), Knox should be the main beneficiary.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: Too Early to Tell – Rarely will I balk at the chance to project a players draft position, but because Knox has so little production, is going to be playing with a new QB in 2019 and has in-between size from an archetype standpoint, it’s really hard to make a proclamation. It’s fair to assume he’ll be drafted in the top five rounds, for now, but that’s about as far as it goes.
Similar Prospect(s): Keary Colbert
AJ Dillon (RB, Boston College)
There’s no ignoring Dillon when he’s on the field. I’ve become accustomed to using the term “hulking mass” to describe big prospects over the years, but if there was ever a poster boy for that description, it’s Dillon. Dillon has other positive qualities, but being listed at 6 foot and 245 pounds is certainly the most notable. There’s an immense amount of power behind Dillon’s running style, and while his college playing weight likely won’t be optimal for the NFL, there’s certainly an intriguing ball of clay to mold. After Dillon’s freshman season, where he produced 1589 rushing yards on 300 attempts, teams adjusted to Boston College’s simplistic and run-heavy scheme. Dillon lost .4 off his yards per rushing attempt (5.3 to 4.9) and ended up battling injuries. The biggest issue for Dillon will come in the receiving game, where he struggles. Through two seasons Dillon only has eight receptions, and while there hasn’t been much opportunity for that type of production considering his offense, he certainly doesn’t profile like a player that will thrive in that area. There’s still a chance things could shift in 2019, but based on two years of film and production, he appears to profile as a first two down player.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: Second/Third Round – Dillon has a lower end Leonard Fournette-ish profile, and his draft position will ultimately be determined by his final season numbers and time in the 40-yard dash.
Similar Prospect(s): Jeremy Hill, LenDale White
Reggie Corbin (RB, Illinois)
Corbin was one of the most electric players in college football in 2018, producing 1,261 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns on only 144 touches. Corbin was one of the few bright spots for a team that lost eight games and simply couldn’t compete in conference play. After a red-shirt freshman season, Corbin displayed intriguing upside in 2016, producing 635 yards from scrimmage on 96 touches, but it was unclear if he would ever be a full-time player at that time. In 2017 Illinois lost ten games and had no player above 73 rushing attempts, and to compound that, Corbin only played seven games. While the team wasn’t significantly better in 2018, they were better, and appear to be heading in the right direction, at least offensively. This is very important for Corbin, as he’ll be a senior in 2019, and will need a positive environment where he can thrive to boost his draft stock. It’s always an uphill battle for senior year players to jockey with underclassmen for draft position, but Corbin has displayed enough special ability to warrant the benefit of the doubt. Corbin is a speed and elusiveness-based RB, who has solid size (listed at 5 foot 10 and 200 pounds) and should test out well athletically.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: Third-to-Fifth Round – Corbin could end up landing in the higher end of that range, or maybe even sneak into the second round if he can test out in an elite fashion, but overall he has an uphill climb and needs to dodge injury landmines in order to achieve that. Corbin is a special player and will continue to create chunk plays, but it’s almost assured that opposing defenses will be locking in on him much more in 2019.
Similar Prospect(s): Jerious Norwood
James Proche (WR, SMU)
The main attraction at WR for SMU over the last five or so years have been legitimate NFL talents. Courtland Sutton and Trey Quinn dominated target-shares in 2018, each producing over 1,000 receiving yards (Quinn with 1,236 and Sutton with 1,085) and creating a great situation for QBs Ben Hicks. What went largely unnoticed in that year, despite two target hogs in front of him, was Proche and his 816 receiving yards and six touchdowns. He then flourished in 2018 as the main weapon in the passing game, producing 1,199 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns on 93 receptions. Proche is listed at 190 pounds, and while he’s on the smaller side of things, certainly produces in a way that would suggest it doesn’t hinder him. Proche hasn’t missed a game in his college career despite being used in a multitude of ways (running game sparingly and on punt/kick returns) and appears to have the ability to handle a big role. Proche should be highly involved in the offense again in 2019, and barring an injury, should be able to buoy his floor from a draft position perspective.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: Third/Fourth Round – Proche has done enough production-wise that if he continues on that pace in 2019, he’ll provide a nice floor for himself. HIs athletic testing will determine a lot, but his ceiling as a prospect is also capped because of the conference he played in.
Similar Prospect(s): Vincent Brown
