As we enter the offseason, there’s a new format that’s emerged over the last couple of seasons which has caught the attention of many. In fact, it’s the preferred way to play for a lot of fantasy football enthusiasts. Best Ball.
Between DRAFT, Fanball (BestBall10s) and a few other established sites, there’s plenty of variety and fun to be had. Lobbies are open, ADPs have been created, and values have emerged. The goal of this article is to identify players who are currently undervalued (or overvalued) and will provide depth in the later rounds of best ball drafts.
While the offseason is supposed to be the “down” part of the year, the NFL has truly become a 24 hour, 365 day a year sport. Between off-field issues, trades, rap videos and free agency/draft movement, even in the heart of April, there’s a lot of information to account for in the NFL. ADP was taken from March 20th to the first of April, so this information is fresh and represents some of the information that’s about to be written about.
ROOKIES HAVE ENTERED THE DRAFT PLAYER POOL! For those that have been following since the beginning, this has been one of the main factors the Best Ball community has been anticipating. Now that it’s here, and there have been a few days of data collected, let’s check in on some of the ADPs of these rookies.
There’s a lot of things that can go wrong for a rookie, and a few of those factors are things veterans don’t have to undergo. Injuries are certainly a concern for all players, but rookies are going from college doctors and medical staffs to some of the best staffs in the world. Even beyond the combine, and especially over the past couple seasons, there’s been a significant amount of 
prospects who have basically redshirted their first seasons because they came into the NFL injured (Kevin White, Josh Doctson and John Ross to name a few). Beyond that, there simply isn’t a good way to analyze how a player will react to new situations in a professional setting. Some players, like JuJu Smith-Schuster with Pittsburgh or Saquon Barkley with New York (Giants), for instance, can jump right into a new surrounding and dominate. Other players, like Davante Adams in Green Bay or Jamaal Charles in Kansas City (vintage!) take time to acclimate.
With all that said, there is value in rookies, specifically because re-draft and season-long folks don’t put an emphasis on them. Having an edge in knowledge in any area will always set an advantage, regardless of how small the edge appears to be. Rookies can be a great addition to a best ball portfolio, especially if exposure is reigned in (20-25% at a max is a preferred range).
A few more final notes: These ADPs are wonky as heck (for DRAFT). I wouldn’t say completely ignore them, but the first couple weeks of Rookie ADP isn’t going to accurately describe where they’re actually going in drafts. However, considering how low they all are in ADP, it’s one of the biggest advantages in the entire season, because the market hasn’t been set yet. The best way to navigate ADP right now on DRAFT is to balance what’s happening in your personal drafts, along with players the rookies are going around in BESTBALL10s. There are some differences in the two sites (mainly team defense), but overall, the players tend to go in a similar order.
Alright, enough jabbering.
VALUES
N’KEAL HARRY (WR) — DRAFT ADP, 197.7; BESTBALL10s ADP, 137.8
It’s no secret Harry has long been my favorite rookie in the 2019 class. In fact, I ranked him the ninth-best WR of the decade in a recent piece. Harry has proven himself in all levels of the field as a wide receiver and has even shown versatility in the running game and on special teams. Based on him likely going in round one, or at worst round two of the NFL draft, there’s reason to believe he’ll garner ample opportunity in year one of his career. Harry acclimated quickly to college football, and being able to learn on the fly, quickly, as a featured player, is a quality that tends to correlate positively with year one production. All players, and people in general, develop at different rates, but already having a track record in college is a good sign they’ll be able to do it again in the NFL. Harry posted a 90th percentile speed score and 78th percentile burst score, and he simply doesn’t have many negative things to talk about from a prospect profile perspective. Harry is a great value in both formats and should, as has been mentioned a painful amount of times already this offseason, be rostered in a heavy exposure fashion.
AJ BROWN (WR) — DRAFT ADP, 193.3; BESTBALL10s ADP, 166.17
Brown and Harry are very similar from a prospect profile perspective, and while Harry edges him out in a few areas, Brown should be put in a great position for year one production. Brown is another player who played significant snaps from his freshman season and tested out as an above average to solid athlete at the combine. There were some athleticism concerns about Brown heading into the offseason, but he swiftly canceled those out by posting an 89th percentile speed score and a 56th percentile burst score. Brown dominated in the slot for Mississippi in his career, but there’s no reason to believe he can’t play on the outside as well in the NFL. I currently have Brown projected as a round one selection, and many mock drafts are echoing this idea. If that’s the case, then he should land on a team that views him as a difference-maker and is willing to provide him with year one opportunity.
DARRELL HENDERSON (RB) — DRAFT ADP, 197.9; BESTBALL10s ADP, 116.1
Henderson is a little more of a gamble than the first two rookies but still worth it, considering his upside. Henderson may not find his way to a featured opportunity early in his career, but his ability in the receiving game, along with his long speed and ability to break big plays, sets up perfectly for a third down type role. Considering those factors and him testing out in a solid fashion, teams who value RBs in the receiving game will value him. Henderson isn’t an elite athlete, but a 71st percentile speed score is enough to believe his college production, while inflated by conference opponents, was legitimate. It seems likely Henderson will be drafted in the top three rounds of the NFL draft, and if he can find himself in a third-down role, Henderson could severely out-play his current ADP on both sites. Especially with best ball leagues, Henderson’s big-play ability and receiving chops can lead to few BOOM weeks, which is all that’s needed in his current ADP range.
DAMIEN HARRIS (RB) — DRAFT ADP, 201.3; BESTBALL10s ADP, 108.2)
Harris is a player who could find himself in a much more prominent role than currently expected post-draft. Harris is currently viewed as a mediocre prospect without much of a ceiling, especially compared to his Alabama teammate Josh Jacobs. While Harris started over Jacobs for the previous two seasons, that simply isn’t valued in the public math equation of their values. The facts of the matter are, Harris was a three-year leader of a committee at Alabama, constantly fighting for touches with highly touted high school recruits and future NFL talent. To top that off, Harris produced above average athletic testing, something completely unexpected for folks who didn’t find a future star in his film. There’s no debating that Harris’ upside isn’t of the elite prospects who have come along over the past couple of seasons, but he’s a lock for being drafted in the top three rounds of the NFL draft and has already shown he can win touches away from NFL-caliber talent. The ADP range Harris is currently going in gives a lot of upside to his value heading into the draft.
