I keep getting the same question, over and over. I keep answering the question the same way, over and over, but it still comes. In fact, I answer the same question at this time of year, every year, and yet it still comes, over and over.
What question is that?
Do I drop Player A for Player B?
I attempted to give some ground rules on the discussion over the weekend in Ray’s Rundown, but I will take things a step further in this piece.
What you will see below is a highly selective list of performers from 2018. Yes, some guys that start out cold finish hot, and some that start out blazing hot finish with a whimper. I’m also keenly aware that, at times, those guys that start hot outproduce the expectations by a good deal, while players that start out slowly never seem to find their footing. The truth, on both ends of the spectrum, is evident. That said, I hope what you are about to read will at least bring you some pause before you randomly drop a player you were all about three weeks ago for a player that you never even considered rostering three weeks ago.
What follows is a look back at hitters from 2018 and how they performed in the month of April. Is the list cherry picked? Admittedly yes, it is. At the same time, I also think it’s representative of what occurs each year. Remember, I’m one for sample size and playing to the back of the baseball card. It doesn’t always work, I will 100 percent admit that, but more than it fails, it succeeds. I would recommend trusting the process.
*For the sake of simplicity, I will take a look at hitters in this piece since they do seem to level off a bit more than hurlers that do have more variance. I also didn’t want to write a 3,000-word article as I know most folks these days simply don’t want to read that much.
APRIL 2018 – HOT
Brandon Belt hit .302/.413/.581 with six homers and a .415 wOBA.
Belt was injured, as is often the case with the soon to be 31 year old, and the result was his worst season in four years (.253-14-46-50).
Francisco Cervelli hit .308-4-20.
Everyone had to add Francisco last April. What did they get for it? He hit eight more homers the rest of the year and saw his average plummet to .250 by seasons end.
Matt Davidson hit .253-9-18 with a .413 wOBA.
This one was obnoxious. I had nearly daily arguments with folks over Davidson. No one listened, they added away, and they were burned with Satan’s fury. From May 1st to the end of the year he went .222-11-44-35.
Odubel Herrera hit .343 with a .389 wOBA.
Herrera did have hit best homer season total with 22, and his 71 RBI were a career best as well. Still, he was a disaster with the bat from May 1st on (.235 with a .290 OBA and a .298 wOBA). Realize that this guy hit .281 or better each of his first three seasons.
Mike Moustakas hit .302-8-19-18.
Moose hit just 20 homers the last five months, half the April pace per month, and batted, if you wanna call it that, .239 over the last five months.
Kevin Pillar had four homers, four steals and a .381 wOBA.
He hit 11 homers and stole 10 bases the rest of the season finishing with a .302 wOBA as he was the same guy he always is.
A.J. Pollock had nine homers and six steals.
At some point in every season I have to warn about this guy. He goes on an epic run, shortly followed by an injury, and that happened yet again last season. His April was legendary, but he only hit 12 homers and stole seven bases the last five months of the season.
Hanley Ramirez hit .330/.400/.474 with three homers, three steals and 17 RBI.
He was an all-star in April. He posted a .500 OPS in May, and didn’t have an at-bat after May 24th as he nearly vanished off the face of the earth with off the field issues.
Daniel Robertson hit .333 with a .446 wOBA.
He was injured and limited to 88 games, but his work after April certainly failed to impress at .241-6-26-32-1 with a .324 wOBA, other than his solid .352 OBP.
Kyle Schwarber hit seven homers, had 17 RBI and had a .403 wOBA.
From May 1st to the end of the 2018 season here are Kyle’s numbers: .231-19-44 with a .329 wOBA.
APRIL 2018 – COLD
Andrew Benintendi hit .242 with one homer.
By seasons end he had gone 16/21 with a .290 batting average. All was good with time.
Alex Bregman hit .259 with one home run.
Many were concerned by his slow start. In the end, he was so dynamic (.286-31-103-105-10) that he was routinely a top-15 selection on draft day this season. Folks, he hit 30 homers from May 1st on. Thirty, after the panic of one in April.
Matt Carpenter hit .155 with two homers and 10 RBI.
You all know what happened, right? Carpenter hit 28 homers in June-August, tying a full season career best, on his way to his best counting category season ever with 36 homers, 81 RBI and 111 runs scored.
Michael Conforto hit .222 with a single homer and six RBI.
The talented outfielder went deep 27 times from May 1st on with a total of 76 RBI his last 133 outings.
Edwin Encarnacion hit .160 with 10 RBI.
You knew better than to panic, right? Please tell me you did? If you showed patience, something that 6-straight seasons of 34 homers and 98 RBI suggested you should, EE rewarded you with 32 homers and 107 RBI, even with his terrible month of April.
Francisco Lindor hit .235 with a .331 OBP and a .322 wOBA.
Despite a sluggish start, Lindor turned in an MVP caliber season that we all know about. His work after May 1st last season included numbers that would have been a massive season, even leaving the month of April out of the mix (.283-34-81-112-20).
Yasiel Puig hit .193 with no homers.
Puig hit 23 homer the rest of the season and jumped his batting average up to .267 by seasons end.
Amed Rosario hit .238 with no homers and no steals.
He wasn’t great last season, but he did finish strong as he swiped 24 bags from May 1st on.
Eddie Rosario hit .231 with a .659 OPS and a .283 wOBA.
From May 1st on, Rosario went .299/.335/.496 with a .351 wOBA and 21 homers.
Anthony Rizzo hit .149 with one homer.
Rizzo caused panic in the streets last season. Folks second round selection, Mr. Consistent, was flat out embarrassingly awful for a month. Things immediately turned around in May (seven homers, 28 RBI), and by seasons end he had a fourth straight season of 100 RBI even though he lost his 4-year run of 30 homers finishing with 25.
Carlos Santana hit .153 with 11 RBI and a .264 wOBA.
Carlos hit .245 with a .349 wOBA from May 1st on. In the end, Carlos finished with 24 homers and 86 RBI with 82 runs scored. By the way, from 2011-17 his average effort was 24-81-79, so yeah, Carlos was exactly who he always is, despite the tediously slow start.
As I and others have noted, the MLB season is 162 games long whereas an NFL season is 16 games. The average team has played 10 or 11 games as I write this or roughly ONE NFL Game. Would you blow up your NFL squad after one week? I know some of you would, but the successful folks, those of you who have a subscription to Fantasy Guru, wouldn’t. Follow the same line of thinking with your baseball squad.
Be smart about how you evaluate players.
Take the long approach with players.
Have patience with the players you believed in three weeks ago.
Trust the process.
Take a shot on an upstart who is blazing or coming into playing time, but don’t do it at the expense of a player you took in the first half of your draft. If you do, you will likely be sorry.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
