Now is the time of year for panic. Did you make a bad draft pick? Is that ascending star someone you missed on? Should you make one or two moves, or perhaps overturn a good deal of your roster? I keep preaching patience, in the face of the overwhelming desire for folks to change seemingly everything about their fantasy roster (I wrote a companion piece on hitters which can be found here in Ray’s Ramblings: Hitters – Stop The Panic). In this column I will address the hurler, and who has come out of the gates spitting fire, or having their pitches blasted by bats with great velocity.
PITCHERS: THE LAST TWO WEEKS – HOT
Jose Berrios has made three starts and been aces with a 2.18 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP and more than a K per inning leading to a HOF level K/BB ratio of 5.25. He’s only 1-1, but he really couldn’t have pitched much better in the early going. His fastball rate is down more than 12 percent, and it’s all gone to his curveball with impressive results.
Yonny Chirinos threw 89.2 innings last season, with seven starts amongst his 18 outings. He displayed solid yet unremarkable production for the Rays in his time on the bump. His 11.2 percent swinging strike rate suggested he could improve on his K/9 rate of 7.53 per nine, and in the early going the mark has gone up (8.25 per nine). Throwing strike one is key, but his current pace of 74 percent isn’t sustainable. There’s always the question of how many innings he will be allowed to throw, and the overall game suggests that he’s in line to be better than average, but not that much.
Zach Eflin has been sharp as a tack with 14 punchouts and one walk through 12 innings. A virtual afterthought in many drafts, his start has been what has been expected from teammate Vince Velasquez for years. Eflin isn’t a strikeout an inning arm though he does have solid control, so even a modest bump in his swinging strike rate, it’s more than a percent above last season, could lead to lots of success. The homer will continue to be an issue though, and given his home park and 39 percent career fly ball rate, he will struggle to post an ERA better than the league average.
Brad Keller… been getting tons of questions about him. He’s been diligently working on his slider in the hopes that he will become the next Marcus Stroman, i.e. a guy who misses enough bats to let his ground ball tendencies shine. Last season he had a 6.16 K/9 rate with 3.21 walks per nine. This season he has a 6.16 K/9 rate with 3.79 walks per nine. His 2.03 GB/FB ratio last season is also down at 1.69. His hard-hit ball rate is up six percent (37), and his first pitch strike rate is down a percent (58). He’s pretty much the same guy he was last year, which equates to a back of the rotation mixed league type.
Nick Margevicius isn’t an elite prospect, and his skills suggest he shouldn’t be. Credit though is due the lefty as he’s been solid his first two outings for the Padres. Realize that raw isn’t a term to be used lightly here as NM has thrown 68.2 innings above Single-A ball. He hasn’t made one start at Double-A, or a single start at Triple-A. Zero. He’s more of a typical lefty type that tries to avoid the barrel without missing copious amounts of bats (think the guy who is listed below him on this list). It remains to be seen how much patience the Pads will have with him when the inevitable struggles occur.
Wade Miley had a 2.57 ERA and 1.21 WHIP last season over 16 starts for the Brewers last season, a year after he was a disaster for the Orioles (8-15, 2.57 ERA with a 1.73 WHIP). He upped his ground rate last season, and it’s up again this season (career 49, last year 53, this year 59 percent). He’s stopped throwing his slider and gone to that cutter, and it’s working. His BABIP is about .272 since the start of last season, and it’s .308 for his career, but can that merely be explained by throwing a cutter? Shouldn’t be. He’s also cut 50 percent of his walk rate right now at 1.54 per nine, and we’re pretty certain after all those innings in the bigs that he’s not that guy. Streaming, OK. But he’s not this good, doesn’t miss bats (less than six strikeouts per nine since last season started), and there’s the matter of the slightly elevated 38 percent hard-hit ball rate since ’18 began.
Michael Pineda, when on, is a good major league pitcher. He’s been that fella through two starts with 10 strikeouts, two walks and two runs allowed over nine innings. Now the concern. (1) He had Tommy John surgery in 2017 and then knee surgery last year. (2) In 2017 he threw 96.1 innings and last year he was at 12 innings pitched. That’s 108.1 innings in two years. How many bullets do you think he has in his arm this season? (3) He’s a two-pitch hurler, and without that third pitch, he gets in big trouble when the count isn’t in his favor (many scouts also think he throws too many strikes). When ahead in the count in his career he owns a stupendous .533 OPSA. When behind in the count the number is stratospheric at .999. That third pitch has always eluded him, and without it, he simply gets hit too hard on the days his control isn’t pinpoint.
PITCHERS: THE LAST TWO WEEKS – COLD
Tyler Anderson has been placed on the DL with a left knee issue after two dreadful starts (11 runs in nine innings). He’s nothing but a moderate talent, and when you’re that guy, and you pitch for the Rockies, a best-case scenario is pretty much a slightly below average effort.
Corbin Burnes has made two starts with a massive 18 strikeouts over 10 innings. He’s a K per inning type of arm, but that two start number is off the charts. Alas, that’s about the only good thing he’s done in the two outings as he’s allowed a whopping 11 runs over 10 innings. It’s remarkable that you could miss that many bats in two games and allow that many runs. Part of the issue is obviously the long ball as he has been obliterated for a total of six homers – three in each outing. His four pitch repertoire impresses, and his stuff is sustainable no matter how many innings he throws in a game, but it’s clear that he’s having a devil of a time controlling the strike zone. Things will normalize, but he has gotta keep the ball in the yard.
Mike Fiers has been typically Fiers-like. In four outings he has allowed five, zero, zero and six runs. Worse than that up and down might be the mere 10 punchouts in 16.2 innings. Fiers can round out a fantasy rotation, and pitching in Oakland helps out his fly ball ways, but he’s unlikely in the extreme to duplicate the ratios he posted last season (3.56 ERA and 1.18 WHIP).
Lucas Giolito was at one time an elite pitching option, one of the five best in baseball. Injuries and down performances are currently threatening to make him nothing more than a scrap heap option in fantasy. His stuff has never come all the way back since Tommy John surgery, and he no longer misses bats as he used to. His curveball doesn’t generate swings and misses as it once did, and he simply doesn’t miss bats with his fastball. The changeup still flashes at times, but does anyone care anymore? He does have a strikeout and inning, and a 50 percent ground ball rate in two outings, but he has struggled to get batters out. With each outing, the hope of success falls further down the rabbit hope.
Jon Gray has elite stuff, and no matter how bad he struggles he still misses bats (534 strikeouts in 504 career innings), and in two outings this year he has 14 punchouts in 12.2 innings, but he’s allowed 13 hits and eight runs. It’s starting to get close to the points that we have to look at Gray in the manner we do with Jeff Samardzija. When on, they get outs and rack up punchouts. When off, it’s just mess. Over his last 33 starts Gray has a 1.44 HR/9 mark, a 5.12 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP despite a 3.41 xFIP. The advanced metrics still love his arm, but at some point, we need to focus more on the results than the parts, and with each outing we get closer to that point with this powerful righty.
Kyle Hendricks has long been described as a unicorn. With the average fastball velocity climbing each year, Hendricks gets by with an 86-87 mph fastball like it was 1984. His line between success and failure is obviously thinner than most given the lack of velocity, and he’s paid for it his first two outings this season. That said, he’s not going to be saddled with a .469 BABIP or a 4.32 BB/9 rate or a 3.24 HR/9 mark (his current totals). He’s been off in the two outings. He’s been off before, and he’s always rebounded. Bench him if you must, but don’t cut bait.
Reynaldo Lopez throws heat, and his slider grades out well. Alas, he struggles to control the strike zone at times leading to poor results. He allows too many fly balls (46 percent of his career but nearly 50 percent since the start of last season), doesn’t miss the bats he should (7.15 K/9 with a mere 9.1 percent swinging strike rate in his career), and he’s still searching for better results on his curveball (1.159 OPS on the pitch last season). The parts are there, but this simply isn’t a hurler that seems close to putting it all together.
Jose Quintana isn’t much better than a league average arm at this point, but he’s far from the dredge of society that soooooooo many seem to think he is. Sure, he has given up 10 runs, eight earned, over two starts covering seven innings. Remember last year how good Luis Severino was? From July 12th to July 28th he allowed 17 runs, 16 earned, over 14.1 innings. Guys struggle at times. It happens. I recommend patience with Quintana who looked much better in the second half last season than he did in the first.
Zack Wheeler is someone I was more down on than Vlad Sedler (see our Battle of the Experts article). It’s too early to draw conclusions, that much is certain, but this type of inconsistency has been a plague on Wheeler for years. In two starts he’s been obliterated for 11 runs over 9.2 innings, and in his last outing he walked seven batters and threw more balls than strikes (52 of 103 pitches). “It was a little surprising,” manager Mickey Callaway said. “I was kind of concerned, like, OK, what’s going on here? The more and more we paid attention, you could tell his arm was late. The good thing is we fixed it before — and this is one time, two innings worth of it — we’ll be able to fix it again… Chalk it up to a bad day. I think it has to happen consistently for you to start worrying about it.” I never bought the hype that was nearly overwhelming late in the draft season, but there is still plenty of time for Wheeler to be just fine, do avoid pushing the eject button on the escape capsule.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
