Welcome to my weekly Free Agent Acquisition Bidding/Budget (FAAB) column where my goal is to have you confidently prepared to acquire the hitters and pitchers off free agency or waivers to make your team better. Like most everything else in life, you get out what you put in. Those quickly slapping one and two dollar bids together at the last second very rarely stay competitive in a game where FAAB is of the utmost importance. Properly setting our squads up for the following week starts with our efforts in FAAB, and those who spend the proper time on it, are usually rewarded. They’re either catching lightning in a bottle with someone who provides value for the rest of the year, or they’re renting someone who has immediate impact and value based on upcoming matchups.
Churning and burning is important, no matter the size of your league (10, 12, 15), though the smaller the league, the more active you need to be in FAAB. The art of FAAB isn’t just about picking up the right players as a rental or for the long-term. It involves a fine balance with also being sure you’re not dropping the wrong players prematurely. As a matter of basics, just make sure of the following:
- That you’re setting several conditional bids under each bid
- That you’re not overpaying based on only what a player did last week (think future value)
- That you have a pulse of your leaguemates’ bidding patterns/aggressiveness
- That you don’t overpay for perspective closers and shoot to get them for cheap a week early
- That you’re not stashing too many minor leaguers/injured guys (roster flexibility)
- That you save some FAAB dollars for the final stretch of the season
Here’s a refresher from draft season on how to manage FAAB.
Pitchers
Middle ground for ownership percentage listed will be 12-team NFBC Online Championships (OC) and Yahoo!. You can assume that if someone is listed as an option for 12-teamers, then he’s a no-brainer addition in 15-team leagues (if available). I’ll be sure to point out pitchers to consider in 15-team leagues as well.
Two-Steps
A rather unappealing week for two-start pitchers off the waiver wire as there simply aren’t too many options to bid on. If you want to add a pitcher, it may be wiser to bid on someone who may provide long-term or look ahead in the schedule to project their next couple starts. Be careful chasing these two-steppers for wins and strikeouts this early in the season. We really shouldn’t be worried about targeting specific categories for a couple of months.
Eric Lauer, LH/SDP (80% OC, 33% Y!), @ SF/@ ARI – He faces the exact two teams he has gone against in his first two starts of the season, but this time on the road. The Giants game was a gem, but he struggled (4 ER) against a red-hot Dbacks squad. Better park environments for pitchers this time around, and Lauer will be a very popular add in OC’s wherever he is still available. No matter what size league you are in, consider this two-step.
Trevor Cahill, RH/LAA (32%, 6%), v MLW/@ CHC – One mediocre start and one gem so far. Cahill is one of my and DraftCheat’s favorite targets from draft season, and we both see long-term value for him. That said, this two-start week is a doozie and legitimately doesn’t get any tougher. Hopefully, you have enough starters that you don’t have to force this one. And yes, two starts is certainly tempting. But I’d be a tad concerned. Nevertheless, that long-term value as a 15-team streamer will come in handy.
Derek Holland, LH/SFG (52%, 7%), v SD/v COL – Two starts at home in pitcher-friendly AT&T Park where he held opposing batters to a .294 wOBA last season. The problem is he gets crushed by righty bats, and in that second start, Arenado and Story are two of the best against lefties. I’d stream in 15-teamers but may avoid in 12’s.
15-team streamers (*dangerous*)
The following guys should all be available in 15-team leagues and are all very, very dangerous, so stream with caution. Literally listed because they get/are projected for two starts.
- Jose Urena, RH/MIA (@ CIN, v PHI)
- Homer Bailey, RH/KCR (v SEA, v CLE)
- Felix Hernandez, RH/SEA (@ KC, v HOU)
- Marco Estrada, RH/OAK (@ BAL, @ TEX)
- Jason Vargas, LH/NYM (v MIN, @ ATL)
- Jordan Zimmermann, RH/DET (v CLE, @ MIN)
If Estrada’s two starts were at home, I’d consider him. But in Camden and Arlington? No thank you. Urena might squeak by but his struggles against lefties (41.3% hard-hit rate last season) are well documented and both the Reds and Phillies have some dangerous left-handed bats. The two guys who don’t have awful doubles on paper are Bailey and Zimmermann, but I’d still be wary of streaming them in 15-team leagues. Bailey had a decent first outing against the Twins (8 K in 5 IP but 3 ER). For him to be even be considered, you’d need to figure out if JoRam and Lindor will be playing next weekend. Just remember, you’re playing with fire with this group. You don’t have to stream garbage two-steps this early in the season.
Single-Start Pitchers
Zach Eflin, RH/PHI (@ MIA) – May well be one of baseball’s biggest SP breakouts. The former 33rd overall pick of the Padres in 2012 is only 24 years old. His career numbers in the majors are below par (5.01 ERA, 17.7% K in 260.2 IP), but he dazzled enough in that first start against the Nationals (5 IP – 3 H – 0 ER – 1 BB – 9 K) to put him on everyone’s radar. He’s nearly 100% owned in OC’s, but maybe he’s still sitting there in your home league. May go for upwards of 20% of FAAB budgets where available with this lovely start against the Marlins on the road. Perfect on paper.
Frankie Montas, RH/OAK (@ BAL) – A Spring Training darling, Montas’ velocity was up from last season (to nearly 97mph on his fastball), and he had been using his sinker less, replacing it with an impressive splitter. The results have been good, as he’s pitched two decent games so far against the Angels and Astros. This is a much better matchup here against the Orioles, and he could be a sneaky addition to your 12-team leagues. Don’t need to go more than 8-10% of your budget to find out, though. In 15-teamers, it’s a different story. If available, he’s worth a hefty bid (15%-plus).
Spencer Turnbull, RH/DET (v CLE) – My boy! He’s been on my radar for a couple years, and I was able to snag him in the 50th round of NFBC Draft Champions leagues back in January and February. Fulmer getting TJ meant a rotation spot opened up for him, and Turnbull has not disappointed. Well, the first start against the Blue Jays wasn’t terrific on paper, but he looked good. The second start was a 10-strikeout outing, and now he’s on everyone’s radars. One of my biggest regrets from last week’s FAAB bidding was I had other needs and did not scoop Turnbull up for a couple bucks. Now the price has gone up, and I’ll have to battle for his services (talking 15-teamers of course). That said, everyone has their price. He’s not a ‘must-own’ for me, and if it’s going to cost more than $100 of my remaining $900 budget, it’s not worth it for me.
Trent Thornton, RH/TOR (v TB) – An unassuming prospect in the minors, Thornton had a solid spring then popped up onto the scene with back-to-back gems, whiffing 15 Indians and Tigers in just 10.2 innings in his first two big-league starts. But it’s going to get tougher from here, as he’ll be seeing more of the tough offenses in the AL East. Thornton will probably go for more FAAB dollars than he’s worth in 15-team leagues. Just know that he’s not going to make or break your team. If there’s something you see here in his skill set that I don’t, by all means, go for it. But I won’t be breaking the bank for the rookie.
Schedule Notes
Teams with 7 games: Braves, Rockies, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Orioles, Royals, A’s, Mariners
Teams with 5 games: Reds, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Twins, Rangers
- Rockies have a wacky split week with three home games against the Braves and then four in AT&T Park (San Francisco), where they will likely face three lefties. Either way, a good schedule for your big bats, and I’d probably let Garrett Hampson ride this week (in your lineup).
- Brewers head to Southern California to face the Dodgers and Angels in three-game series. They may see three lefties for the Dodgers, which isn’t great for Travis Shaw and Mike Moustakas.
- A tough and short schedule for the Blue Jays so I’d consider benching some of your fringe guys there. They may line up to see Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi, followed by some solid Tampa arms.
- Speaking of the Rays, I’m firing up all my fringe guys like Yandy Diaz and Kevin Kiermaier. They’ll get 3 @ CWS and 3 @ TOR, facing some shady starters.
- The Royals play seven but will see some tough arms at home next weekend facing the Indians. Prior to that, a four-game series with the Mariners, also at home.
HITTERS – 15-TEAM ADDS
Alex Gordon (OF), LH/KCR (78% in Main Event 15’s) – One of the hottest hitters in baseball right now, batting almost .300 with nine runs and seven RBI through his first six games. Yes, it’s just an unsustainable hot start for the 35-year-old former 2nd overall pick, but there’s intrinsic value in hitting third in a lineup – especially behind studs like Merrifield and Mondesi.
DON’T BID MCCANN – HE HAS HIT THE IL – GRAB TYLER FLOWERS FOR COORS SERIES – Brian McCann (C), LH/ATL (61%) – Mostly in play because second catchers are hard to come by in deeper leagues and because he heads to Coors. The one interesting thing about McCann is that he’s drawn a walk in each of the four games he’s played so far. (Editor’s Note: McCann left Saturday night’s game in the fourth inning with what the team described as a right hamstring strain after sliding hard into third base; DTD)
Christian Walker (1B), RH/ARI (54%) – The prospect blocked by Goldschmidt finally gets his chance to shine. Some sharp folks picked him up for $30 and under in NFBC’s last week, but the price goes up this weekend. The type of guy worth bidding a few extra bucks on if you lost Matt Olson or need the CI badly. Though of course, needing a CI badly should be based on the quality of talent we currently have on our roster, not based on what said players have done over the past week alone.
Dwight Smith (OF), LH/BAL (49%) – Continues to play in the lineup every day, sometimes as the #2 hitter against right-handed pitchers. Not particularly strong as a power guy but could hit for average and steal a few bags. Don’t break the bank on him.
Blake Swihart (C), LH/BOS (42%) – Releasing Sandy Leon is a great thing for Swihart owners, and I believe he will be valuable as their second catcher, though, he’s worse defensively than Vazquez. He has six hits in his last nine at-bats, including a bomb. The perfect C2 for your 15’s even if he’s only playing two to three times a week.
Johan Camargo (3B), SW/ATL (66%) – A lovely play in deeper leagues anytime we see a gaggle of southpaws on the schedule but particularly valuable this week with the Braves heading to Coors.
Mitch Moreland (1B), LH/BOS (66%) – Red Sox only get five games this upcoming week, but they will all be against right-handed starters. Steve Pearce may find his way into the lineup for one of those starts, but it’s mostly Moreland here, and he still has some pop left in that bat.
Hitters – 12-team adds
Hunter Renfroe (OF), RH/SDP (83% in OC) – Starting to play more and more every day, and he’s one of those mid- to late-rounders with 35+ HR upside. Should already be owned in your league, but if not, bid up!
Adam Frazier (2B/OF), LH/PIT (82%) – Leadoff man for the Pirates is off to a nice start – two stolen bases and a .380 OBP through the first week. He’s eligible at two spots, which makes him a valuable asset. 10 homers and 20 SB with a .280 average should do the trick this season, especially if he can surpass 80 runs scored.
Kevin Kiermaier (OF), LH/TBR (78%), Brandon Lowe (2B), LH/TBR (67%), Yandy Diaz (3B), RH/TBR (61%) – Boy, do I love myself some Rays this year. They may not have immense power, but they are disruptive and all offer value in different categories. Lowe hitting fourth against righties has been incredibly valuable, and Diaz has now hit more homers in just a few games with Tampa than he ever did when called up by Cleveland. Kiermaier is valuable in all formats so long as he stays healthy. He’s streaky and has massive holes in his swing, but has 20/20 potential.
Stash: Tyler O’Neill (OF), RH/STL (61%) – Won’t be mad if you drop him in 12’s since he hardly plays, but if you have the ability to stash and aren’t slammed by the injury bug, hold him. My gut remains bullish on him, and I believe something will occur to open up playing time for him soon. Now, if you mock me for my random ‘predicting injuries is stupid’ analysis, know this is kind of what I do. I tweeted two weeks ago that Daniel Murphy will get hurt and am feeling a similar scenario here, as crazy as that sounds. Yes, I’m wrong a lot on these random calls too, but batting over .500 lifetime with em. ;’)
