One of the most important indicators of future success for NFL prospects is draft position. If you’re skeptical of that fact, check this out (https://www.fantasyguru.com/nfl/articles/general/rb-and-wr-success-probability-charts-2018-review). While where a player goes on draft day isn’t the be-all and end-all of their career, historical trends suggest the earlier a player is drafted, the higher their likelihood of NFL success will be. Considering that general rule and considering things like Best Ball drafts and pre-draft rookie drafts create a need for foresight on rookies, projecting draft position in an accurate manner is valuable.
Finding accurate ways to evaluate prospects for the NFL draft isn’t an easy process, but it is possible. The NFL leaves behind a lot of clues pertaining to what they look for, and over three decades of drafts in the seven-round format, many trends have evolved. While there’s a lot of factors to account for, and injury/off-field red flags are sometimes impossible to register, it’s a plausible process. The general perception of the NFL draft is that a prospect’s stock shifts wildly throughout the months before the draft, but based on historical thresholds, this simply isn’t the case. A players’ value directly correlates to their production profile and how they test out athletically. While there’s certainly nuance and differing scenarios, almost all factors are set after the combine. Two NFL teams may value a prospect in an incredibly different light, but over 32 teams, over seven rounds, over decades, there’s a balance.
PLAYERS ADDED/CHANGED
Kyle Shurmur (QB, Vanderbilt) – After doing some digging, and asking around about Shurmur to some Quarterback-based evaluators, the general mantra that was echoed is NFL teams and organizations view him as a backup-type prospect. While Shurmur has redeeming qualities that should translate to the NFL, it sounds as though he’ll have to fight his way up the depth chart in order to get a starting opportunity. Shurmur has a nice production profile and solid size (listed at 6 foot 4 and 230 pounds), but considering new information, his draft round range was bumped down to “3rd-4th”.
David Montgomery (RB, Iowa State) – I’ve been hard on Montgomery, and still hold firm on the idea that he’s very likely to slip into the fourth-round range, but the strong push for top two to three round beat presented by draft folk stays steady. Even after a disappointing combine, there’s still a major push for Montgomery to be among the top selected RBs in this class, so there’s obviously some important decision-makers who view Montgomery in that light. Montgomery’s production profile, along with his athletic testing suggest his landing spot, based on historical comparables, would be in the fourth or even fifth round range. Because of the strong public stance, the benefit of the doubt has been given to round three.
Alex Barnes (RB, Kansas State) – After reviewing Barnes’ athletic testing at the combine, it’s worth considering a team taking a (relative) risk on him. Barnes tested out as a 99th percentile SPARQ-x athlete, which included a 70th percentile speed score and 89th percentile burst score. Barnes is, undeniably, a fantastic athlete. However, Barnes was not a flashy or highly exciting college player and didn’t become a full-time player until his final season. Barnes was effective in his final season (1,549 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns), but ultimately the film that was put together didn’t appear highly athletic. Brown Is boosted to “5th or 6th” instead of his initial “6th”.
Hakeem Butler (WR, Iowa State) – Butler has been the talk of the town over the last couple of weeks, specifically by scouts, mock drafters and a significant amount of fantasy analysts. Matt Waldman, Danny Kelly, Graham Barfield and Greg Cosell all view Butler as a round-one-worthy prospect, and while his production profile isn’t perfect, they may have a point. After Butler ran a 4.48 forty-yard dash at 227 pounds, it became clear he’d have no issue fitting in with NFL level athletes. His final year production could boost him into a similar situation to 2016 first round pick WR Josh Doctson, who went 22nd overall.
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (WR, Virginia) – Arcega-Whiteside shocked a lot of folks on Thursday, reportedly posting a 4.49 forty-yard dash at 223 pounds. This was, unexpected. Arcega-Whiteside is known for his big body and ability to box out defenders on deep targets and in the red-zone, but certainly wasn’t viewed as a speedster. After dispelling that idea, it’s important to take Arcega-Whiteside seriously from a top three round perspective. While it still seems highly unlikely he’ll jump into the top two rounds, shifting is projected draft round form “4th” to “3rd-4th” seemed necessary.
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