Matt Boyd has made history in his first two starts of 2019 with massive strikeout totals. Where have those punchouts come from? Can he sustain the pace? Is it worth paying a premium to add the lefty to your fantasy squad? Last week, Mr. Flowers wrote about Chris Sale and all the concerns with his velocity in his first outing. After his second trip to the bump, with the ball coming out of his hand at an even slower pace, just how much of a panic in the streets should we be fearing? Christian Walker was an afterthought on draft day for the D’backs, but after a hot start and an injury to Jake Lamb, just how serious to we need to take into account his hot start?
MATT BOYD ON FIRE
Matt Boyd has had a pretty magical start to the season for the Tigers with back-to-back efforts of at least 10 strikeouts, making him the first Tigers arm since at least 1908 to do that in his first two starts of a season. In fact, his 23 total strikeouts in the two starts is tied for the third most for any pitcher in his first two starts since 2000 (Curt Schilling holds the record with 26 back in 2002). So, who is Boyd after this phenomenal start?
I feel a bit bad here. I continually wanted to bump Boyd up the rankings this offseason, but I never did.
I wanted to write a Player Profile on him but just ran out of time. If I had written it, I bet I would have bumped him up the standings at least 10 spots.
Of course, none of that does you any good at all, so apologies there.
Boyd is learning how to pitch. He doesn’t light up the radar gun (91 mph on the heater), and his pure stuff is by no means elite, but he is honing his repertoire which, when combined with an understanding of pitching, can be quite effective. Here’s what he has done.
In 2017 he threw his slider 10 percent of the time.
Since then he’s upped the mark to 32 percent, a massive leap forward.
In 2017 he threw hit changeup 21 percent of the time.
Since then he’s thrown his change seven percent of the time.
In 2017 he threw his sinker 19 percent of the time.
Since then he’s thrown the sinker nine percent of the time.
He’s learned what works, refined his approach, and his performance has improved.
In 2017 he had a 7.33 K/9 and a 1.56 WHIP.
In 2018 he had an 8.40 K/9 and a 1.16 WHIP.
As he has grown as a pitcher, the slider has become a true weapon. After allowing an .888 OPS on the pitch in 2017, a decidedly poor mark, his level of performance last season ascending to stardom-like heights as the number dropped to .517. He also gained 11 percent in the K-rate column up to 33 percent. It’s a pretty damn good pitch now, and throwing it more often has helped him to becomes a usable piece in the fantasy game.
Boyd isn’t an ace. He’s unlikely to become this year’s breakout strikeout arm like Patrick Corbin was last year. Still, there is more than enough going on with Boyd to lead one to think that if you’re starting him 30 times this season in your mixed league you aren’t in a bad place. The real drawback at this point is cost. If you don’t already own Boyd, and no one grabbed him after that first outing, he’s gonna be mega expensive this free agent period after a second straight dominating effort. I’d peg him as an SP5 type in a mixed league long term, so don’t go overboard with the bidding, one that could reach SP4 heights but also fall to SP6-dom. The bottom line is that I really like what he’s doing, but paying a premium for him seems unwise.
CHRIS SALE UPDATE
Chris Sale was blasted in his first outing, a fact that was discussed in Please Don’t Panic.
The results were much better in his second outing as he held the Athletics to one run over six innings. However, he only struck out one batter and his velocity was still down. Not only were the strikeouts down, but Baseball Savant had his fastball at 89 mph, this after the 92 average he had in the first game led to outright panic. With the gun saying 89 mph, it’s nearly panic in the streets time. Pitching coach Dana LeVangie is putting a brave face on. “You guys want him to pitch the whole year, or do you want him to go out and throw 100 right now and not be there for his team? He’s building,” LeVangie said. Some observers felt that Sale was intentionally holding back on the velocity against the A’s and working on getting everything in order, a fact that was gleaned from that he didn’t seem to be extending himself fully (the article goes into more detail).
The hard data suggested that he had just 5.91 feet of release ahead of the rubber, his second lowest number in any start since the beginning of the 2018 campaign. So, perhaps Sale is just working into things in a measured manner, knowing he can get outs without unleashing everything since he’s a bit out of kilter right now (and it should be noted that he located the ball much better in that second start). It’s a good story to lean on if you’re a believer in Sale. Conversely, you could look at the above data and also come to the conclusion that he’s merely battling like crazy cause his stuff just isn’t there. We need more data to be sure with Sale. I’m not ready to give up hope yet, not close to being there am I, but even if you are, with all the negative press everywhere about his start, trading him likely isn’t something you should consider because, what are you gonna get, 80 cents on the dollar?
D’BACKS PLAN WITH CHRISTIAN WALKER
The Diamondbacks said all offseason that they planned on Jake Lamb playing first base against righties, and that they would sprinkle in Christian Walker against lefties at first base. Well, Walker looked good in spring, and he’s started out well in the season as well. So well in fact, that Lamb started at third base in the 7th game of the season with Walker at first base and Eduardo Escobar at second. Then, Lamb was injured with a left quad strain, and it seems likely that he’s headed for the DL, all of which could open up ample time at first base for Walker. Now, when Lamb is healthy he’s in the lineup, don’t forget that, and the team really doesn’t want to play him at third base, but perhaps Walker can force them too if his bat cooperates.
Walker has three homers, two doubles and six RBI through six games this season, but he has really struggled to find any footing at the big-league level with a .206/.286/.514 slash line across 119 plate appearances with a horrific 36 percent K-rate. At the same time, dude tore up Triple-A in 2017 (.309-31-114-104 in 133 games) and was even better there last season (.299-18-71-68 in 84 games). Contact is an issue and is something to keep a close eye on with Walker, and there’s no way he’s holding on to that astronomical 33 percent HR/FB ratio he owns as a big leaguer either. Already 28 years old without a single season of 50-at-bats on the majors as the Orioles, and then the Diamondbacks, must have seen something in his game that has led to so much time in the minors (you can argue Paul Goldschmidt in Arizona was blocking him, which is totally fair, but Walker has played more than 100 games in the outfield in the minors and even 10 games at third base). He’s well worth a pick up in the short run if indeed Lamb is put on the injured list, but I have a hard time envisioning a true breakout season from him this season, though his start is promising. I’m thinking corner infield option, at best, in mixed leagues.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
