The NFL is built upon what college football provides. Every year, there’s a focus on incoming rookies and players who are going to make impacts for their new teams, but where did those players come from? What did they look like as underclassmen in college? How productive were they? The goal of this article is to help provide analysis that will improve readers ability to identify NFL players who are still in college. Each week, there will be four players evaluated and given an NFL projected draft position based on their current historical indicators.
There are many tidbits and clues the NFL leaves behind pertaining to what they’re looking for in an NFL Draft prospect. The basic strength, speed and athleticism are factors in building a skill position player, but it’s clear there’s more to it than that. When reviewing the NFL Draft over the last two decades, there’s statistical trends and traits NFL teams look for before selecting players as well. This article, which highlights players not yet draft eligible, will highlight those factors.
THE PROSPECTS
KJ Hamler (WR, Penn State)
Hamler is far from an imposing presence (listed at 5 foot 9 and 175 pounds) but was an incredibly explosive weapon for Penn State as a red-shirt Freshman. Hamler produced 754 receiving yards and five receiving touchdowns on 42 receptions (18.0 yards per reception), and he even added 44 rushing yards. The basic facts for Hamler are that he was a leading receiving weapon for a power-five-conference team in his freshman season. That’s enough to feel comfortable about his NFL future. While he may never be a featured weapon in the NFL, everyone can’t be a superstar, and Hamler clearly has traits that professional organizations will covet. Another sneaky indicator that Hamler is a versatile asset with upside is his contributions on special teams. Hamler accumulated 523 kick return and 96 punt return yards in 2018, further proving and displaying his athletic traits, quickness and versatility. Hamler is one of 11 WRs since 2010 to have 500 receiving yards and 500 kick return yards in a Freshman season. It’s slightly unclear what Penn State’s offense will look like moving forward considering the losses of RB Miles Sanders and QB Trace McSorley, but one thing that will remain a constant theme (barring injury) is Hamler being the main focus in the passing game.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: Third Round – Hamler is safely in the top three round discussion (for now), but his size is one factor that could hold him back from first or second round consideration. Bengals WR John Ross has set an interesting precedent for speed-based smaller WRs and draft position, but as things currently stand, Ross’ combine weight (190) is 15 pounds more than Hamler’s listed weight (175).
Similar Prospect(s): Marquise Goodwin, T.Y. Hilton
Justin Jefferson (WR, LSU)
Jefferson is a player that surprisingly hasn’t received much praise considering the name on his jersey. While the results have been mixed, there’s no debating the NFL draft success of LSU WRs over the past decade. Between D.J. Chark, Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry, finding the top rounds of the NFL draft isn’t an issue for players with worthy production. Jefferson certainly started off on the right track in 2018. After barely playing in his freshman season, Jefferson saw an opportunity to become a prominent weapon in the LSU offense and took it, accumulating 875 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns on 54 receptions (16.2 yards per reception). Jefferson saw a few opportunities for peripheral touches (five rushing attempts, two punt return attempts), but for the most part, found himself as the first read in the passing game. Jefferson is listed at 6 foot 2, 185 pounds, and looks to have the body type to add weight. Though his current frame isn’t enticing from an NFL perspective, leading an SEC team in receiving yards in a true Sophomore season is a very positive data point. Jefferson thrives in a few areas, but his ability to gain extra yards and use elusiveness after the catch is his best asset. Despite the 16.2 yards per reception, Jefferson saw a lot of targets close to the line of scrimmage and made more out of those plays than what was likely expected.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: Second/Third Round – Jefferson has a lot of work to continue with in order to make a top three round projection come to fruition, but his 2018 was enough to use optimism. Jefferson isn’t likely to test out more than above average, especially from a weight-adjusted perspective, but if he can build on 2018 his production profile and film will likely secure his floor.
Similar Prospect(s): Antonio Bryant, Justin Hunter
Brock Purdy (QB, Iowa State)
Purdy jumped into an offense ready to thrive in 2019, and he guided them in the right direction. While most of the attention went to teammates RB David Montgomery and WR Hakeem Butler, Purdy was an interesting storyline himself. Purdy finished his freshman season with 2250 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns and a 10.2 yards per attempt. Purdy did throw seven interceptions, but completed 66.2% of his attempts, and was a true risk-taker. There’s certainly a chance Purdy’s numbers take a big hit in 2019 with the loss of Butler, but he had solid connections with Freshman WR Tarique Milton and Junior Deshaunte Jones as well. Both will be around in 2019. The future can go any number of directions, but Iowa State has been a stable program over the last couple years with Head Coach Matt Campbell taking over, based on that, it’s fair to assume Purdy will continue to be put in a position to succeed. Purdy isn’t the size of a prototypical NFL QB, but at 6 foot 1 and 205 pounds, there shouldn’t be significant concern over his size. Arm Strength could be an issue with evaluators moving forward, but if he continues to improve, there will be more positive things to say than negative.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: First/Second/Third Round – Again, Purdy doesn’t have prototypical arm strength or size, but his ability to manage a power five offense from a young age is impressive, and If he can grow with this team and create prolific production in his final two seasons, round one isn’t out of reach.
Similar Prospect(s): Colt McCoy
Jermar Jefferson (RB, Oregon State)
Jefferson was one of the few bright spots for what was otherwise a horrific 2018 season for Oregon State football. Jefferson produced 1,527 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns on a team that won only two games. It’s tough to emphasize how difficult it is to be that productive as an RB on such a bad team. Jefferson is listed at a solid size (5 foot 10 and 211 pounds) and showed a bunch of NFL-caliber qualities as a Freshman. Jefferson is not a prospect that makes the crowd go wild with anything specific, instead, he slowly but surely finds creases and uses solid vision to produce positive plays. Jefferson takes long strides and has shown solid ability to receive the ball out of the backfield. Jefferson has a long way to go, but as the seasons go along, 2018 should be by far the worst conditions he plays under. This could cause a drop-off in volume as the offense gets better around him, but would also lead to an increase in efficiency per touch. It’s not normal for a prospect to have their highest touch season as Freshman, but it’s not unprecedented
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: Second/Third Round
Similar Prospect(s): Ryan Williams
