We eat, sleep and breathe. We are human. We’ve also spent months preparing for our drafts and couldn’t wait for the regular season to start. That is why as fantasy players, our inherent reaction to a slow start to our fantasy teams is to panic. I’m here to tell you not to do that.
It’s my annual column reminding you of the ever-so-apt adage that fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. It’s a played-out phrase, but so very important to remember. The best way to look at it is that we have 26 periods (weeks) that we must grind out, and each week is a game within a game. It maybe one thing if your first three picks went down in the first week of the season (meaning, you have a bigger hole to climb out of). But every single one of our fantasy teams suffer injuries and get off to slow starts in certain years. Nothing is insurmountable with proper attention to weekly FAAB and to our lineup decisions. Not even losing Trea Turner or Giancarlo Stanton for a month. Panicking is the worst thing we can do, yet it’s in our nature to do so when we’re micro-managing every box score, at-bat and pitching performance.
On April 26 last year, I pointed out in a tweet that Jarod Dyson had as many homers (2) as Jose Altuve, Yasiel Puig, Trea Turner and Rougned Odor combined. None of those four guys went on to mash 30-plus bombs, but they did enough to make my point of how silly and out of whack early-season analysis is in our twittersphere. After all, we’re only four percent into the season! If you really want a feel for how early it is, two pitchers (Greinke, Bumgarner) have as many homers through the first week of action as the top-4 hitters per 2019 ADP (Trout, Betts, Ramirez, Martinez). Could Tim Beckham finally break out and be a top-50 hitter? He might. Is it worth 40% of your FAAB budget in a long-ass 26-week season to get him on your team? Safe to say, no. Crazy things happen every year, but do you really foresee a scenario mid-season where the top 20 front-four hitting category leaders include Beckham, Joc Pederson, Kolten Wong, Maikel Franco and Trey Mancini? I surely don’t and neither do you.
Granted, it’s a tougher road to recover from if you happen to be my colleague Rudy Gamble in TGFBI (The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational). Luck couldn’t have struck any worse for a team than it did for him where three of his first four picks (Trea Turner – 1, Giancarlo Stanton – 2, Daniel Murphy – 4) all hit the IL in the first week and just to add insult to injury, his third round pick (Carlos Carrasco) got destroyed in his first start. It’s tougher sledding in a scenario like this where his top three hitters are all out for at least a month. Sadly, Rudy can pretty much kiss the chance at the overall title goodbye but he’s a great in-season manager, so saying he’s out of the running for 1stplace in his league might be premature.
I’ve mentioned it before, but you have to find a fine balance between being aggressive in FAAB early and hanging back and letting the field overreact. In a situation like Rudy’s, a typical manager may overcompensate by spending way too much on mediocre replacements in FAAB the following week to plug the big holes dug by injuries on their roster. Irrationally overspending is the suckers way to do it. Spending $300 of your $1000 budget on Wong as your Murphy replacement at 2B is very much overkill and fails to encompass the long-term vision we’ll need to persevere all season.
Not to say that Wong won’t have a fantasy-worthy season. We don’t know that yet. But spending big bucks like that is making a magnanimous statement that Wong is a key component to saving your fantasy team and that spending 30% of your budget is worth Murphy’s fourth-round replacement cost. And then how do you feel when he follows up that big weekend of his with a .210-0-2 and a new middle infielder emerges as the popular bid the following weekend? So, if injuries are hitting so hard and heavy in the first week of the season and the trend continues at this insane pace, don’t you think the chances are you’ll need more FAAB dollars for the next six months than you usually would?
On the flip side, same thing with these pitchers. I’m guessing some Blake Snell owners out there were ready to sell low after a rough first outing only to see him follow up on it with a dominant 12-K effort against the Rockies on Tuesday. Same with Zack Greinke who displayed lower-than-usual velocity and crapped out for 7 ER and 4 HR against the Dodgers last week only to follow up with a 10-whiff outing against the Padres the other day. Chris Sale and Carrasco owners may be flipping out as well and then the following start, both whiff double-digit batters and Sale’s velo is back up to normal levels.
The Sale situation is tad concerning, of course. But that’s because there’s something tangible to grasp upon – 4 MPH lower velocity in his first start and a very uncharacteristic one-strikeout outing at Oakland despite otherwise looking ok. If he’s not hiding injury and is healthy, chances are he’ll be the same old dominant Sale we’ve seen over the last half decade. But outside anything tangible, it’s just one day of 162 of our wonderful pastime. Understanding the ebb and flow as well as both ways regression can flow is something experienced fantasy baseball players are accustomed to. It’s a cerebral hobby. Those who know how to play the long game are better suited to make the right moves and attack the roto categories they need properly when they’re in the final stretch.
Having baseball back is exhilarating. We’re hanging on a thread for every at-bat and pitcher GIF. But panicking off one-week sample sizes (especially, the firstweek) is for the guys and gals who will end up at or near the bottom of the standings come year end. That’s not going to be you or I this season. Even in the face of adversity, we’re going to prudently assess each new FAAB addition we make and keep in mind what we think fair market value is. Not overpay for something we deem an asset simply because of one hot 8-for-12 with 2 HRs weekend series. To win the marathon, you’ve got to have the ingredients in place to make that final push. That means holding at a steady pace in the race with an understanding where those around you are, and of course, staying hydrated (holding on to some FAAB dollars). If you think you’re overpaying, you probably are. Slow and steady wins the race and takes down the league prizes at the end of the year.
