As the offseason progresses, and the 2019 rookie class evolves, there’s a constant churn of draft prospect information. Some is good, some bad. This article will help clear the noise and get to the truth. There’s a lot of information out there, but only some of it is valuable. This article will also evolve and shift, based on personal research done through the season.
Now that the Shrine Game, Senior Bowl and Combine are finished, there’s time to address some of the more unique and highly talked about players in the draft class. While I’m a firm believer a prospect’s “true” stock never shifts throughout the process, it’s fun to play along with the news.
STOCK UP
Hakeem Butler (WR, Iowa State) —“I” statements are something that I tend to avoid in writing, BUT (Of course there’s a but!), Butler is a player that’s received A LOT of positive hype over the last couple of weeks, which has created some personal contemplation. Between Rotoworld’s Evan Silva, NFL.com‘s Graham Barfield, Greg Cosell, and Matt Waldman, an army of educated opinions are swirling around the idea of Butler as their top WR in the 2019 class. This isn’t to say my opinion is wrong, but sometimes when there’s smoke there’s fire with a prospect. While Butler’s profile beyond his final season is severely lacking, his final season was undeniably special, and worth time reviewing. The biggest sticking point for me would be the questions regarding why he couldn’t beat out WR Allen Lazard in their time battling for snaps. There’s certainly an argument to be made that coaches felt Butler was more versatile and could be more effective in the slot (where he played in his junior season), but Lazard keeping the alpha role is not what would normally occur with a future elite prospect on the depth chart. If anything, this is a lesson in always re-checking work. Even if eventually coming to the same conclusion, don’t be too proud of evaluations.
Miles Boykin (WR, Notre Dame) — Much like Butler, Boykin has been receiving plenty of hype since his incredible combine performance. There’s a lot of meat on the bone in terms of context for Boykin’s career, and a lot of it surrounds him suffering through three and a quarter seasons of horrific quarterback play. Boykin only had one season with more than 300 receiving yards (872 in 2018), but with Brandon Wimbush at QB and a few highly touted high school recruits in front of him (Equanimeous St. Brown), Boykin’s opportunities for receiving yards were far and few between. Boykin tested out as an incredible athlete at the combine (as reviewed previously), and it will be fascinating to see where NFL teams value him from an NFL draft perspective.
Jacques Patrick (RB, Florida State) — All credit to Matt Waldman on this one. After rolling through the RSP (Rookie Scouting Portfolio) last night, a name stuck out like a sore thumb in his RB rankings. Patrick averaged 3.5 yards per attempt in 2018 on a floundering Florida State offense. Between RB Dalvin Cook and RB Cam Akers, Patrick was nudged out of significant touches in all four seasons of his career and was seemingly left for dead as an NFL prospect. Especially after not receiving a combine invite, the road to NFL success could be tough. However, as Waldman noted, there’s a lot of context with this prospect. Before his final season, Patrick was an effective player in his small sample size, averaging 5.6 yards per rushing attempt in 195 attempts between 2016 and 2017. Patrick is a hulking mass (listed at 6 foot 3 and 230 pounds) who thrives in close quarters. It’s hard to envision Patrick finding his way to an NFL draft selection, but he’s a great prospect to keep an eye on with opportunities after the draft
Keelan Doss (WR, Cal-Davis) — Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller put Doss in the fourth round of his most recent mock draft, which certainly raises some questions about what he’s hearing from NFL sources. Post-combine, Doss wasn’t a player that inspired a lot of confidence. Doss is a big prospect (listed at 6 foot 2 and 211 pounds) but didn’t end up testing out at the combine, and after playing his career at a small school, it’s hard to peg him into a draft round projection. Most small school players do not land in the top four rounds of the NFL draft barring special circumstances, but perhaps Doss can follow in the footsteps of Arizona Cardinals WR Chad Williams. Williams landed in the third round of the 2017 NFL draft after not receiving a combine invite.
STOCK DOWN
D.K. Metcalf (WR, Mississippi) — Despite posting an incredible speed score (100th percentile, literally) and overall looking like an alien (listed at 6 foot 4 and 228 pounds) at the combine, Metcalf has taken a lot of heat lately based on his agility testing and lack of flexibility. Ultimately, it’s not going to affect his draft stock much, but it’s worth noting that there’s general concern over his ceiling. Metcalf is undeniably going to be a good deep threat, but with lacking flexibility, it’s fair to question if he’s the generational talent that some are projecting.
Myles Gaskin (RB, Washington) — While Gaskin was never expected to be an elite athlete, there was a general disappointment when he didn’t improve on his forty yard dash time at Washington’s pro day. Gaskin posted a 4.58 at the combine, and a 4.56 at a pro day, which, after adjusting for pro day enhancements, might actually be worse. Gaskin still ended up as a 73rd percentile SPARQ-x athlete, but because of his size and relative lack of hype moving into the draft season, there does come questions about his draft position. For now, sticking with the read that he’ll land in the third round area makes sense, but if negative reports continue to stream in, perhaps an adjustment is in order.
