As we enter the offseason, there’s a new format that’s emerged over the last couple of seasons which has caught the attention of many. In fact, it’s the preferred way to play for a lot of fantasy football enthusiasts. Best Ball.
Between DRAFT, Fanball (BestBall10s) and a few other established sites, there’s plenty of variety and fun to be had. Lobbies are open, ADPs have been created, and values have emerged. The goal of this article is to identify players that are currently undervalued (or overvalued) and will provide depth in the later rounds of best ball drafts.
While the offseason is supposed to be the “down” part of the year, the NFL has truly become a 24 hour, 365 day a year sport. Between off-field issues, trades, rap videos and free agency/draft movement, even in the heart of March, there’s a lot of information to account for in the NFL. ADP was taken from March 20th to the first of April, so this information is fresh and represents some of the information that’s about to be written about.
VALUES
TYREEK HILL (WR, CHIEFS) — BESTBALL10s ADP, 21.9
This, obviously, has nothing to do with football. It was reported early last week Hill could be involved in a domestic violence case involving his son. It wouldn’t be hot analysis to say this would be incredibly bad for Hill’s CAREER if true. He’s officially the biggest risk in the top three rounds of best ball drafts and is an easy fade at this time. When there’s smoke, there’s fire is somewhat overstated nowadays with all the false reporting that gets leaked into the media, but this is not a situation to take lightly. Hill’s history has been the elephant in the room as he ascended to prominence over the last two seasons, and even reports this could be true ignited social media. After the Kansas City Chiefs release of RB Kareem Hunt during the 2018 season, there’s a precedent set for NFL teams and, maybe most importantly, the Chiefs. Patience is key, and getting exposure to other top end talents is the move right now. Hill is a great talent, in arguably the best offense in the NFL, but wait until he gets cleared to draft him again. Hill has been falling in recent drafts (latest being 44th overall), which is worth tracking, but unless he starts falling to the sixth or seventh, it’s still too much of a risk.
JORDAN HOWARD (RB, EAGLES) — BESTBALL10s ADP, 77.35
Howard was sent to the Philadelphia Eagles last week for a conditional sixth-round pick (which could shift into a 5th rounder based on his performance). Howard was a fantastic draft pick for the Chicago Bears, and his first three seasons certainly paid off the fifth round price tag they spent on him. Howard is a downhill runner who possesses surprising speed for a 230 pound RB (ran a 4.57 40-yard dash at the combine). Unfortunately for Howard, despite his fantastic (draft-position adjusted) production (3,938 yards from scrimmage in first three seasons), his welcome was worn out by 2018. With new head coach Matt Nagy at the helm, versatility became one of the most valuable qualities for players on the Bears offense. With Howard being strictly a runner and struggling in the receiving game (72 receptions in three seasons as a starter), it’s likely they viewed him as a liability from a play-calling/predictability standpoint. The Eagles are likely to slot Howard into the role they gave RB Jay Ajayi when he was healthy over the previous two seasons. While this role isn’t top-end fantasy worthy, there’s room for Howard to be a productive fantasy asset in one of the best offenses in the NFL.
DESEAN JACKSON (WR, Eagles) — BESTBALL10s ADP, 117.8
Speaking of the Philadelphia Eagles offense, Jackson will be a part of it in 2019. Jackson is coming off a 2018 where he averaged 10.5 yards per target and produced 774 receiving yards in only 12 games. It wasn’t the best year of Jackson’s career, but at 31, there was very little drop-off from his apex seasons in Washington and his first go-around with the Eagles. The Eagles were in desperate need of a deep threat in 2018 and ultimately settled for avoiding deep targets later in the season. Jackson’s health is the only concern heading into 2019, as he’ll be fit into a very efficient offense with arguably the best QB he’s ever played with (Carson Wentz). Jackson is a fantastic value at his current cost, and the age discount, along with him not producing full season stats in 2018 (It’s a real thing!). This has created a great pocket of value. There’s still risk associated with drafting Jackson — father time slams down the hammer at random times — but based on the information that’s available, it’s a perfect situation. The 117.8 ADP represents drafts mostly after he found his new team, and while it could rise a bit as the offseason goes along, getting Jackson in the 8th-to-10th round of drafts is a win.
ISAIAH CROWELL (RB, RAIDERS) — BESTBALL10s ADP, 191.8
In a similar fashion to Jordan Howard, Crowell gets an opportunity to, at the very least, become a two-down back who has a high probability at 200 or more touches. Because Crowell’s ADP dipped so low after being released by the New York Jets, there’s a pure inefficiency right now with his price. 191.8 isn’t entirely accurate, as the news happened late last week, but even if bumped 40 or 50 spots, Crowell is still a great value. Crowell has had AT LEAST 800 yards from scrimmage in each of his last four seasons, and there’s no reason to see that streak being broken with the lack of competition on the Oakland Raiders depth chart. There’s so little competition for touches (specifically between the tackles runs) that Crowell is a low risk heading into the draft. If the Raiders do bring an RB into the fold at a relatively high pedigree range (round two or three), Crowell could still hit value in a committee, as he did with the Jets in 2018 (before getting injured). Despite playing five seasons, Crowell is only 26 years old, and 2018 brought no reasoning along to think he’s lost a significant amount of his ability. Let’s project out and say he ends up in the 130-140 pick range; he’s a player that’s worth getting high exposure to in that range.
