It’s early, so let’s talk about sample sizes this week in the Hot & Cold article. Ray will discuss how much time is needed before you should be leaping to conclusions. Ray will discuss Bruce/Dozier and their “slow” starts. Then Ray will talk about a few men that had solid starts to the season and are starting to generate some buzz in Yandy Diaz, Tyler Glasnow, Jake Odorizzi, A.J. Pollock and Trevor Richards.
SAMPLE SIZES
In Skills Not Results, I wrote about the importance of understanding sample sizes. Do yourself a favor and read that article for the actual breakdowns of the amount of time needed for the categories to even out. Here’s a short-hand note.
You need to give players a month, at least, to have things level off.
As you will realize when you read the above article, it actually takes longer than a month for a good deal of the numbers to even out. That means that those guys that are struggling right now are likely to see a significant rebound, or as they call it, a regression to the mean. Conversely, all those hot starting players are likely to see their production slow to a more reasonable pace given their skill sets.
It’s also important to understand the next step here. Some slow starters will never rebound, and some of the guys that get off to blazing starts will end up outproducing their cost in a significant manner. There’s no 100 percent certain statement that can be made about a player, which is part of the fun, or stress, that the game offers each season. For more on players, and what the likely outcome of their starts will be, make sure that you’re a VIP member of the site this season. There’s a 24-hour a day Chatroom available where you can ask any an all questions about you want about anything fantasy baseball related. There will also be scheduled times to talk where I will be in there for an hour straight for Live, immediate answer hour (this week those times are Monday and Wednesday at 5-6 PM EST). Come in, say hi, ask some questions and have some fun.
I spoke more about this issue in the April 1st Ray’s Rundown.
UNDERSTANDING PERFORMANCE
One of our users here at the site, sent me a note complaining about Brian Dozier and Jay Bruce and their slow starts. Some points to consider.
It’s been a week. I’m not changing my thoughts on a player after a week unless (A) the player is hurt or or (B) if someone gains playing time due to someone else’s injury or (C) someone is promoted from the minors or (D) if there is a change in the pecking order in a bullpen. That’s pretty much it. Other than that, not changing my opinion on a guy in a week.
Let’s talk about the two men I noted above.
Bruce and Dozier have some swing and miss in their game, and they are going to have weeks where they hit .175.
Second, it’s been a week.
Third, is Bruce really struggling? He’s hitting .182 and that is hideous, but…
Bruce has a .321 OBP.
His career mark is .318.
Bruce has a .500 SLG.
His career mark is .466.
Bruce has a .345 wOBA.
His career mark is .335.
There’s also the fact that Bruce is on pace for 54 homers and 162 RBI.
Again, I will caution you to slow the concern train. You either believe in a guy, or you don’t. If you don’t believe in a guy, my question is, why did you draft him? I’m telling you, please use my three decades of experience in fantasy baseball as your guide and show some patience with guys. As I’ve told many folks lately, I’m not playing to win fantasy baseball in Week 2. I’m playing to win fantasy baseball in 2019.
THE NORMAL PLAN
When I write this article in the future, I’ll likely be looking at two-week increments, both on the hill and at the dish. It’s easy to see the best/worst performers at this point, there numbers scream at you at the moment, but once the innings/at-bats pile up, player performance can start to get lost a bit, which is where this article will come in handy helping to identify the positive and negative more directly. When games start piling up, we can get lost in the weeds as they say. We will try our darndest to offer some clarity to help keep things real for you.
THE DISCUSSION THIS WEEK
Yandy Diaz hit an epic homer over the weekend. It was basically a line drive homer to dead center (he also hit two doubles). That never happens. Spreadsheet baseball is alive and well in Tampa, so you never really know what will happen on a daily basis with the lineup, but if Diaz ends up in there more days than not, you’re going to want him in the lineup. The key to his game will be hitting the ball in the air. Much like Christian Yelich, Diaz is a guy who hits the ball hard, but often into the ground (56 percent ground ball rate for his career). If that mark drops below 50 percent, he’s got the potential to post a heck of an exciting season… that is if he gets enough player appearances of course.
Tyler Glasnow has that special arm, one that was written about in his Player Profile. That report spoke of the exciting, and the concerns, that his dynamic wing carries. In his first outing this season we saw mostly the good as he walked just one batter and allowed just a single run over five innings. His heater was coming at batters at 96-97 mph, and he really leaned on his curveball throwing it nearly a third of the time. The key though? Throwing strike one. After two years in a row with a subpar first pitch strike rate of 57 percent, he was at a marvelous 70 percent in his first foray onto the bump this season. If that mark is even 62 percent this season, his performance likely takes off.
Jake Odorizzi had 11 punchouts over six innings his in first outing this season and there was a lot of heat behind his name of late. Make sense? Yes, and no. In 10/12 team scenarios he’s really just a spot starter. I’ve always liked his game, but the fact is that he’s been extremely average the past two seasons with a 17-18 record, a 4.33 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. Yep, totally league average. It sounds like the Twins might cut his outings a bit short this season, which on the surface sounds bad, but really, it’s a good thing. The first time through the order last season his OPSA was .627. The second time through the mark was .659. Unfortunately, the third time through the mark was 1.159. There’s also the at OPSA which was under .675 through 75 pitches last season but 1.004 on pitches above that mark. Pull him out early Twins.
A.J. Pollock opened on fire hitting .412 (7-for-17) with a homer, two doubles, six RBI and four runs scored. The dude can hit, no doubt, but the week really doesn’t change the opinion of Pollock at all. As it has been, and seemingly always will be, it’s all about being on the field for Pollock, and that’s something he simply seems incapable of doing. The last three seasons he’s failed to appear in 115 games a single time. Enjoy the ride while it lasts, realizing it will end at some point.
Trevor Richards changeup is flippin’ legit. That links shows him striking out none other than Nolan Arenado with three changes. It remains to be seen if he has enough velocity to roll through a lineup three times a game, 30 times this season, but as the video shows his changeup is one of the better in baseball, an if it’s moving like it was against the Rockies, he could have lots of success this season.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
