CLOSERS – Don’t be one of those guys who overspend on someone who just nabbed one save (Ian Kennedy, Taylor Rogers, Mike Wright) unless you truly believe they are going to be the guy all year. That won’t be the case with any of them. It’ll be a committee in KC and MIN for sure. The one guy likely available who seems like is ‘the guy’ is Sergio Romo for the Marlins. He’s worth a hefty bid, but like all closers, there are no promises. In SEA, it’s as messy as can be with Strickland down. It may eventually be Anthony Swarzak when he returns but he’s just not a good pitcher. In the meanwhile, it’ll be a committee with Cory Gearin leading it. Gearin is not a bad reliever at all.
MORE SUNDAY UPDATES: You’ll see some Frankie Montas bids in 15’s after his great start and likely some dropping Felix Pena. Those type of marginal moves are fine so long as you aren’t spending a lot. Don’t overreact if one of your top 7 SP had a bad first start – it happens. You can bid Jarod Dyson for some steals and can drop Greg Allen for now, no worries. Franchy Cordero can be dropped in 12’s for now. Technically so can my boy Tyler O’Neill if you need the bench spot – he’s not much more than a bench guy at the moment. But you know how it goes – as soon as you drop him, Fowler or Ozuna gets hurt and he goes h-a-m. Dwight Smith Jr. for Baltimore is an interesting bid in deeper leagues, but don’t go bonkers on him either because of one good Sunday. If he holds the #2 spot in the lineup for a while, he’ll have some value.
Welcome to my weekly Free Agent Acquisition Bidding/Budget (FAAB) column where my goal is to have you confidently prepared to acquire the hitters and pitchers off free agency or waivers to make your team better. Like most everything else in life, you get out what you put in. Those quickly slapping one and two dollar bids together at the last second very rarely stay competitive in a game where FAAB is of the utmost importance. Properly setting our squads up for the following week starts with our efforts in FAAB, and those who spend the proper time on it, are usually rewarded. They’re either catching lightning in a bottle with someone who provides value for the rest of the year, or they’re renting someone who has immediate impact and value based on upcoming matchups.
Churning and burning is important, no matter the size of your league (10, 12, 15), though the smaller the league, the more active you need to be in FAAB. The art of FAAB isn’t just about picking up the right players as a rental or for the long-term. It involves a fine balance with also being sure you’re not dropping the wrong players prematurely. As a matter of basics, just make sure of the following:
- That you’re setting several conditional bids under each bid
- That you’re not overpaying based on only what a player did last week (think future value)
- That you have a pulse of your leaguemates’ bidding patterns/aggressiveness
- That you don’t overpay for perspective closers and shoot to get them for cheap a week early
- That you’re not stashing too many minor leaguers/injured guys (roster flexibility)
- That you save some FAAB dollars for the final stretch of the season
Here’s a refresher from last month on how to manage FAAB.
With the Tokyo series and half a week of games in the books, we’ve already seen a lot of activity, managers’ lineup utilization and even some injuries that will make this first week of FAAB (or second, depending on the site you’re playing) very highly active. There’s a balance between staying patient and being aggressive with bidding in April, and it all depends on your team. If you’ve lost Justin Upton or Matt Olson (both top 100 overall draft picks), you’re not dead in the water. There should be ample replacement options for you at OF and 1B (more so at OF of course). If you lose two closers this weekend, then yes, perhaps going after a new closer who emerges requires a bigger chunk of your budget. Just make sure you’re not dropping a player who you researched, believed in and drafted just because they had a slow opening weekend. It’s a six-month grind so finding that balance will be key to our success.
PRIMER
It’s never wise for me to assume experience level with my audience, as I know well that this column has readers who play high-stakes NFBC and also readers in casual Yahoo and ESPN leagues for whom baseball might be their secondary fantasy sport, or if they’ve ventured over from DFS and giving seasonal a try. I’ll do my best to overview for everyone, but note, I’ll be often referencing percentage ownership for the NFBC Online Championship (OC), which is a contest with dozens of 12-team leagues (over 2500 entries) and that, in my opinion, serves the best gauge for ownership review for our purposes. I’ll sometimes mention percentage-owned in Yahoo, but those percentages usually encompass everyone from eight to 16 team leagues. I’ll also point to 15-team ownership as well sometimes.
Best example of this is someone like Matt Strahm this week. Strahm was drafted among the top-250 picks in almost every NFBC OC in March and is 100% owned there (on Yahoo, he’s 59%). Strahm has two starts this week, and if he’s on your free agent list, then you should know he is a must-add. I’ll more so cover fringe additions for 12 and 15 leagues.
TWO-START PITCHERS
The following guys are worth bidding in casual leagues and are likely unavailable in NFBC OC. If they are, you bid as all may provide value all season. Yahoo and OC percent ownership listed.
Domingo German, RHP/NYY (96%, 23%) – A rather volatile guy with immense K upside and lines up for the best two-step you can possibly imagine (v DET, @ BAL). If he’s available in 15-teamers, you bid hard (up to 20% if you feel your staff is weak), but note he may be the guy pushed out when Luis Severino returns if he struggles.
Brad Peacock, RHP/HOU (47%, 100%) – A must-own. Only place where he may not be necessary is in 10-team leagues. Peacock lines up for a Monday start against the Rangers on the road and then the A’s over the weekend. Peacock has some incredible strikeout upside, posting a whopping 35% rate as a reliever last season. Though, if he remains a starter, we’ll see that somewhere between 25-30% this year.
Steven Matz, RHP/NYM (79%, 100%) – A former big-time prospect, Matz showed incredible promise as a rookie several years ago but has dealt with injury and mediocrity over the past couple. He lines up for two against Marlins on the road and Washington at home, which is a nice two-step. Worth up to 15% of your FAAB budget in 12-teamers.
Kyle Gibson, RHP/MIN (91%, 23%) – I actually despise Gibson the pitcher but do recognize he occasionally flashes some dominant upside. A matchup with the Royals is fine, but it’s that second start (@ PHI) which scares me. I wouldn’t go nuts on a bid for him if he’s available.
Caleb Smith, LHP/MIA (59%, 7%) – Lines up for v NYM / @ ATL and best usable in 15-team leagues. Wouldn’t go nuts on a bid there, because the likelihood of a win (let alone two) are slim behind that offense and both the Mets and Braves have dangerous lineups.
Others to consider:
- Merrill Kelly, RHP/ARI (@ SD / v BOS) – A poor man’s Mikolas with a tough two-step
- Drew Pomeranz, LHP/SFG (@ LAD, v TB) – A touch of upside this year if velo can go back to golden days, but these offenses can dink and dunk on him
- Drew Smyly, LHP/TEX (v HOU, v LAA) – A blast from our past who will have some scary summer starts in Arlington but may be safe to use these next couple months in 15-team leagues – not someone I’d touch right now in 12’ers.
Avoid at all costs:
David Hess (BAL), Chad Bettis (COL), Ivan Nova (CHW), Tyson Ross (DET), Chris Stratton (LAA), Zach Davies (MLW), Aaron Brooks (OAK)
Single-starts and Long-Term SP
- Eric Lauer, LHP/SDP – Someone I drafted everywhere in 15 teamers who can be bid upon in 12’s where you need a starter. Big pedigreed former first rounder with a fantastic schedule coming up (v ARI next week, then @SF / v ARI the following week). Only 32% owned in NFBC OC.
- Brad Keller, RHP/KC – Not a big strikeout guy (16.5% career rate) but dazzled in his Opening Day start and gets the Twins at home this week. Only 20% owned in OC and can be bid upon lightly there. A must-own in 15-teamers.
- Nick Margevicius, LHP/SD – Held his own for four innings in his MLB debut until serving up a couple runs in the fifth. A finesse lefty who runs between 88-90mph on his fastball but has value in 15-teamers. Don’t use him @ STL this week, but definitely do the following week, as he currently lines up for the Giants again, this time in San Francisco.
- Jakob Junis, RHP/KC – Notched the win in his 2019 debut and gets another solid matchup this week against an anemic Tigers offense. Big strikeout potential. Drafted in most OC’s (83% owned) but could be a streamer in your satellite or home league.
CLOSER TIME
To be updated Sunday afternoon prior to bidding after we see some day games.
SCHEDULE NOTES
Teams with 7 games: Reds, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Athletics, Rangers
Teams with 5 games: Twins, White Sox, Mariners
- Brewers play six, but all of them in a nice home park. They get three at Great American (v Reds) and three at home against the Cubs. That first half of the week is particularly enticing for Brewers lefty bats facing two of the worst SPs against LHP last year (DeSclafani, Mahle).
- Dodgers get three Giants LHP (Pomeranz, Bumgarner, Holland) and then three in Coors Field. Make sure to have all of your Dodgers bats active this week (especially the RHH’s).
- Blue Jays have an interesting split week. The first half is very viable against weak Orioles’ pitchers, but then they get four against the fabulous Indians’ staff.
- Utilize all of your Yankees! They get the Tigers and then the Orioles.
HITTERS – 15-team adds
Ben Zobrist, 2B,OF/CHC (85% in Main Event) – Leads off against righties and a serviceable bat in a pinch. Won’t produce much in the HR or SB departments but will contribute with runs and could produce a plus average (.305 last season). Cubs will likely see three lefties (Sean Newcomb – ATL, Max Fried – ATL, Caleb Smith – MIA) and three righties (Julio Teheran – ATL, Pablo Lopez – MIA, Sandy Alcantara – ATL).
Hanley Ramirez, 1B/CLE (53%) – Had a gut feel on Hanley being someone who could get off to a hot start in the absence of good bats in this Cleveland lineup. He homered on Friday and could feast on some weak CWS and TOR pitchers. A nice CI fill in for those of us who lost Matt Olson.
Brandon Drury, 3B/TOR (39%) – He’s the leadoff man early on and could stick there for a while. But sometime soon, big Vladdy Jr. will arrive. Drury has 20-HR pop and will score some runs for the Jays for as long as he sticks hitting first.
Ji-Man Choi, UT/TB (68%) – Not an add if you own DHs Cruz or Davis but hits cleanup against righties, flashing a .256 ISO against them last year. Some pounce-worthy matchups for him, and for the weekend series against the Giants, Choi avoids most of this lefty-heavy rotation so he will be in his customary #4 slot.
Robbie Grossman, OF/OAK (5%) – For now, platoon leadoff man against righties for the A’s. Better real life player than fantasy asset, but anyone leading off has value. If you’re hit by the injury bug early, you could surely do worse than someone who hits leadoff a few times per week. Worth a conditional bid in the single digits. Don’t overpay if he happens to have a big Sunday and hit a home run or something.
Troy Tulowitzki SS/NYY (64%) – He’s not toast until he’s officially on IL. Anyone and everyone on the Yankees has value (in both 12 and 15-teamers), especially this week with the Yanks facing off against scrumptious Tigers and Orioles pitchers.
Hitters – 12-team adds
Enrique (Kike) Hernandez, SS,OF/LAD – Locked in the everyday second base job after a hot spring but had the day off on Saturday. He crushed another couple homers on Opening Day, and there should be another 25 where those came from in Hernandez. Nearly 100% owned in OC’s but only 61% on Yahoo.
Tim Beckham, SS,3B/SEA – The thing to remember about Beckham is he’s a former number one overall draft pick. A disappointment for much of his career and just a .255 hitter in 389 career games. Off to a hot start with three bombs, and he did crush 22 a couple years ago. He could easily hit 25 this year, but I’m sure it won’t come with a batting average that will help you. You’re only buying high if you’re paying more than $70 of your $1000 budget. Because in 12-teamers, he’s a dime-a-dozen guy. If someone wants to overpay for him, let them.
Jung Ho Kang, 3B/PIT – This man needs to be owned in 12-team leagues. Went for 5 to 15% of FAAB budgets last week and may not go for much unless he goes nuts on Sunday. Hope for a quiet day at the plate and just sneak him into your bids.
Yandy Diaz, 3B/TB – One of the biggest (bulk-wise) dudes in the majors has a crazy high line drive rate throughout his minor and major league career and simply hasn’t been knocking balls out of ballparks. He did barely hit one out on Friday (it hit the wall and bounced over), and perhaps we see a new power Yandy in his new digs in Tampa. Worth a stab, but don’t pay through the nose.
Leonys Martin, OF/CLE – Leadoff man for the Indians is 83% owned in OC’s and only 2% in Yahoo. He’s got pop and speed, and the Indians have a fantastic schedule the next couple weeks (CWS, TOR, DET, KC).
Justin Bour, 1B/LAA – Less than 50% owned in OC’s and has had some solid at-bats against lefty pitchers, yet has no hits through Saturday’s games. He’s pretty much locked into a top-half of the lineup slot and faces some juicy Texas righties this week (Volquez, Lynn, Shelby Miller). Just an in-a-pinch guy I have faith in is Bour.
Kyle Tucker, OF/HOU – If your team can afford a stash (and perhaps even if it can’t), consider adding a 71%-owned (in OC) future stud. There are many paths to his promotion and full-time at-bats with injuries so commonplace. Harder to add in satellite leagues where there isn’t much upside, but in the OC where there’s a $125,000 overall prize, these type of high-upside lottery tickets are worth the price of admission. You may even see some impatient owners looking to drop him. Probably wouldn’t spend more than 10% of my budget in 12’ers though.
