It’s early, but that doesn’t mean folks are unconcerned with their teams. On Opening Day, the questions were hot and heavy, especially revolving around three names – Tim Beckham, Taylor Rogers and Chris Sale. What does The Oracle think? He will obviously share his ideas. Ray will also touch on some early lineup changes involving names like Drury, Granderson, Laureano, Lowe, Hampson/McMahon and White. Are those players moving up, or down? Is it too early to worry about any of this? Read on to find out.
A PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT
Ray should I add Tim Beckham?
Is Taylor Rogers the closer with the Twins?
Should I panic if I own Chris Sale.
It’s been at most three team games as this report is written for major league teams. If you are going to change your plan, or outright panic, after three games you should stop playing season long fantasy baseball and play DFS. It amazes me how, after spending literally months breaking everything down, that 48 hours goes by and all of a sudden months of work goes flying out the window. Trust the process folks. Trust me and the staff at Fantasy Guru. Hell, trust yourself.
Since I got versions of all of the above questions multiple times the last 24 hours, let’s address each player/situation.
Tim Beckham ended up being my third baseman in AL LABR at a cost of $4. Not a mixed league, an AL-only. Me and 11 of the smartest minds in the fantasy baseball world barely spent any money on him in an AL-only league. In my 15-team mixed league in Tout Wars, Beckham wasn’t even rostered. So, has everything on him really changed in a week? The short answer is no. The longer answer follows. Beckham was the first overall selection in the 2008 MLB Draft. The 29 year old should play daily for the Mariners this season and he comes into the year qualifying at shortstop and third base (49 and 40 games last season). Beckham had 22 homers a couple years back, but last season he slumped to a sickly .661 OPS. He should be better than that, but a 20-homer season with five steals and a .750 OPS would appear to be the top end of expectations this season barring an unforeseen run that, frankly, no one is seeing. Best case he is Asdrubal Cabrera. Worst case – see 2018.
Taylor Rogers was my choice for the Twins closer in my first Closer Chart. As we got closer to Opening Day, I backed off the call as the winds were blowing in another direction. Then we had manager Rocco Baldelli say that the Twins won’t be using a single closer to start the year. So, Taylor goes out and gets the first save and the fantasy world goes bonkers. Why? Rogers, a lefty, was likely called on because of the matchups which included four batters – two that were switch hitters and two that were lefties. I’ve said it for years, and I’m more convinced than ever, that we really need to move on from saves and move to Solds (Saves+Holds) so we can stop this never-ending guessing game of who will get the call in the 9th inning and instead just focus on the best arms available out of the bullpen.
Chris Sale lost in his first start since signing a nearly $150 million extension with the Red Sox. OK, he didn’t just lose, but he was bombed (nine outs but seven runs and three homers allowed) starting outright panic. Two things to remember before we go deeper. (1) It was one start. (2) The Red Sox didn’t give Sale all that money if they thought (A) he was injured or (B) he was likely to break down. Let’s address in more detail the Sale situation.
He threw his four-seam fastball at 92.3 mph, about two mph below his normal and he didn’t get one swing and miss on any of the 25 that he threw. Sale said after the start he’s healthy. Pitching coach Danna LeVangie had this to say after the game. “He sort of was the same person last year [at the start of the season] velocity-wise,” said LeVangie. Last season, in his first three starts, his 4-seam heater sat at 93.8, 92.1 and 93.2 mph, an average of 93.0 mph which, obviously, is just seven tenths of a mph different than it was on Thursday, so in essence, there really wasn’t any difference. “It’s just cleaning up the delivery a little bit, increasing deception, spin, effectiveness of his pitches.” LeVangie further suggested that Sale’s upper body was flying open too much which was one of the main reasons for the loss of velocity and movement.
The next point, one I made all preseason, was the odd nature of the way that virtually everyone I was in contact with was viewing the health of pitchers. All anyone could do was panic and downgrade Clayton Kershaw, to the point, that he was dropping in ADP on a daily basis. But Chris Sale… no one ever offered any concern. I’ve said over and over that Kershaw threw more innings than Sale last year. I’ve said over and over how folks always worried, going back to his draft season, about Sale given his mechanics and build. Despite all that, and the fact that Sale threw just 158 regular season innings last season, he was always gone by the middle of the second round in drafts at the absolutely latest. Why?
Sale might end up being just fine. In fact, if I had to guess at this point, I would say he will be just fine. Is he going to throw 210 innings this season? I wouldn’t count on it. Am I panicked because he had a bad outing no? Just change the context. If this was a start in June, what would you say? You’d say s – – t, that stinks, and move on to his next start with hardly a worry in the world. BUT, since it’s the first start this season people are running around thinking the world is gonna end. If that’s how you are, I have one, totally serious suggestion for you which is – listen to me and don’t draft a pitcher in the first couple of rounds of a draft. All this nonsense that’s been spouted for months in the fantasy community, that if you don’t draft one of the top-10 ADP arms that you have no chance to win this season is sheer, unadulterated nonsense.
STARTING LINEUPS
Brandon Drury doesn’t figure to play that much once Vlad Guerrero Jr. is called up, but for now he might have the plumb spot of leadoff in the Jays lineup after manager Charlie Montoyo said “Drury’s my leadoff guy.”
It looks like Curtis Granderson will play versus righties this season for the Marlins. He’s projected to hit leadoff as well, as he is on Friday against German Marquez. He can still get on base, he had a .351 OBP last season, so those of you in deep daily change leagues could take a look.
Ryan Laureano hit leadoff Friday for the Athletics with Robbie Grossman dropping to 8th against the righty (Matt Harvey). Laureano could be a significant fantasy producer this season, with his power/speed combo, and if he were to hit at the top of the lineup against righties the hype will only continue to grow. This is especially true after he hit five homers and stole seven bases in less than 180 plate appearances last season. I think he’s more likely to steal 20-bases than he is to hit 20-homers.
Brandon Lowe hit cleanup on O.D. for the Rays. In Game 2, he’s on the bench as Avisail Garcia enters the lineup. The Rays are a solid team, with solid options all over the place, but once you get past the Meadows/Pham thing on offense, there just isn’t gonna be much consistency as this team is simply gonna play spreadsheet baseball.
Ryan McMahon is once again in the lineup for the Rockies leaving Garret Hampson on the bench. This is disappointing if you own Hampson, but let me offer some quick thoughts. (1) Hampson wasn’t kept on the big-league roster to get two at-bats a week. (2) Hampson offers a better glove than McMahon, so keep an eye on the defense of McM. (3) Hampson doesn’t have to play every day to steal 20 bases, and we all know how valuable a 20-steal middle infielder can be. Try to have some patience with Hampson, despite the disappointing start. It’s a long season.
Tyler White takes a seat in Game 2 for the Astros as Tony Kemp enters the lineup against righty Charlie Morton. It’s too early to know if the Astros are just getting Kemp involved in some game action or if they are considering some sort of DH platoon. I wasn’t “in” on White this preseason, though I know many were, so keep an eye on how the playing time dealio plays out in the short run here with White.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
