As we get going with the full-on start of the regular season, it’s time to ramp up our increasing attention on individual players and what the expectations should be for their performance in the coming campaign. In order to put all the data in one spot, so you don’t have to search through all the Player Profiles that were written, I’ve complied a compendium of the summaries for all the P.P.’s of the preseason. Don’t worry, there will be more Player Profiles in-season, but here’s a review of everything up until the start of the 2019 campaign.
*Click on the name to read the entire Player Profile.
HITTERS
OZZIE ALBIES: Albies is a nice young player. At the same time, his current ADP has him being drafted at a spot that it might be difficult for him to match. The power is likely to pull back, and if his spot in the order isn’t at the top as seems likely, it’s questionable that his runs scored mark will get anywhere close to last season’s levels. There’s also the inability to consistently get on base, or to do anything even league average as righties, as well as the overall concerns about the fall in performance in the second half last season. He’s currently being over-drafted according to this scribe.
ELVIS ANDRUS: Andrus is 30 years old, and it’s easily argued that he’s already had his best season. At the same time, there’s little reason to think that he won’t surpass his draft day cost by merely returning to the levels that he was performing at for a decade at the major league level. As noted, he’s not likely to produce more than about half his high in the homer category, but a return to 20 steals is certainly possible, and in this day and age of stolen base scarcity, that matters. Andrus is also likely to play virtually every day in the top-third of the batting order, and that should allow him to contribute per usual in the homer and runs batted in categories. He’s an ideal middle infield option given his ADP.
MIGUEL ANDUJAR: I get it. Andujar is young and he plays for the Yankees. At the same time, I view his ADP as wildly aggressive. As of this writing you could wait 20 picks and get Josh Donaldson, 30 for Justin Turner or Wil Myers (Player Profile) or 70 picks for Mike Moustakas. I’m just not getting the exuberance here. Andujar has no speed, is terrible defensively and is no better than a 50/50 proposition to repeat his batting average and homer totals. He’s an avoid for me at his current price.
CODY BELLINGER: There’s nothing truly wrong with Bellinger that time won’t fix, so don’t go panicking about last season without placing it in to the context of his young career which has been pretty impressive. While not a hacker at the dish, or even a big strike out option, Bellinger has some zones that he struggles with, not the least of which is the up and away stuff. He needs to become more disciplined in that zone, or he needs to close that hole or pitchers will continue to exploit him when they are able to hit the zone. However, pity the pitcher who grooves a pitcher to this man as he will annihilate it without mercy (last season he had a .735 wOBA on pitches right down the pipe). There’s power, speed and dual position eligibility with Bellinger, and at just 23 years of age it certainly seems plausible to posit that he will finish this season with numbers closer to his rookie effort than last season.
WILLSON CONTRERAS: Contreras is young, is part of a good offense and he plays an awful lot. While he’s not a big-time power threat, it’s very reasonable to expect his homer total to increase in 2019. It’s also fair to point out that a rather thorough look at his batting average dip suggests that with a bit better work against off-speed stuff, and a second half more commiserate with his overall skillset, that the number should rise to the level of his career average (.266), if not better. There’s a lot to like here, and it’s easy to argue that Contreras should come off the board as a top-5 catcher in all formats, especially in OBP leagues where he owns a career mark of .349. As such, it’s really pointless for me to do the 10/12/15 team advice thing as I would consistently be writing – take him as a catcher one with top-5 upside. Given that he’s much cheaper than he was to roster a season ago, it’s certainly within the realm of acceptable for you to take the dip earlier than most to lock up your catcher one spot this season with the Cubs’ backstop.
RAFAEL DEVERS: His age, park and lineup suggest that improvement should be coming. However, the totality of where we currently are at with Devers suggests that we might be at a point in 2019 where that next step is gonna happen. Last year he was over drafted. This year, he’s being rostered at a point that makes a lot more sense given who the 22 year old currently is. He’s a corner infield option at best in mixed leagues, and one that is unlikely to rise above that level this season.
BRIAN DOZIER: I understand. Dozier is aging, switched teams, and frankly, was about ¾ of the man he was expected to be last season. When I say I understand, I mean I get why his ADP is outside the top-10 at his position as recency bias is a real thing. The takeaway by now should be obvious. I like Dozier a lot more than the general public. That does not mean you should reach for him early in a draft. Be mindful of his ADP, be a little patient, then jump that ADP by a couple of rounds and watch the positive results role in.
ADAM FRAZIER: Frazier isn’t a star, and it would take the earth spinning backwards for him to become one. That said, he’s got enough of an offensive game to take notice. Add in a spot in the leadoff role with the Pirates, and dual position eligibility, and you have a fine addition to any fantasy league with a wee bit of depth. Finally, he’s a decent late option in points leagues as well with his ability to get on base while limiting the punchout.
VLADIMIR GUERRERO: It’s pretty obvious, or it should be by now, that I’m not going to be pushing anyone to draft Vlad Guerrero Jr. this season. I will not discount that potential he possesses, he could certainly perform at all-star levels, but there are just so many potential hurdles for the youngster, not the least of which is the exorbitant cost. As I write this report it’s extremely early in the draft season, but I’m routinely seeing Vlad with an ADP inside the first four rounds of a draft (often higher). With so much depth at the third base position, and so many viable candidates likely to be available rounds later than Vlad, you will have to decide how you want to play it. I would implore you to… Keep your expectations in check. Realize that the odds of Vlad going bonkers this season are small. Understand the landscape of the position to the point that you comprehend that even if Vlad has an impressive season, that its likely you will be able to find similar levels of production much later in the draft.
AARON HICKS: Three things could increase Hicks’ cost this preseason. (1) He plays for the Yankees. (2) He is likely to hit leadoff against righties. (3) He signed a big contract extension that raised his “Q” factor in the eyes of the general public. Therefore, whereas Hicks might have been a solid value prior to Valentine’s Day, his cost could inch upward to the point where his health concern risks make him a somewhat expensive option on draft day. That said, he currently profiles as an excellent option as a third outfielder, even if you’re in a 5×5 league, if you find your batting average support at other spots.
ELOY JIMENEZ: His defense is flat our poor, and he’s never gonna steal bases with below average speed. Still, he’s a legit middle of the order threat in year one. If he can stay healthy, something that has been challenging for him at times, his performance should be in the Michael Conforto to Stephen Piscotty range this season at the top end, with the ability to hit more homers than either man.
BRANDON NIMMO: There is little to suggest that batting average success will befall Nimmo this season. His approach leads to walks and an elite OBP though, which when combined with his top of the order spot in the order, could lead to copious runs scored. Will his power tick upwards? It seems unlikely. What about his speed quotient? There’s not much reason for expected improvement there. Nimmo will most likely have to lean on an increased workload to increase his counting category production this season. He’s most likely to be a better option in points leagues than in traditional roto leagues.
YOAN MONCADA: The luster is gone, and as a result Moncada is being drafted well outside the top-10 at his position. People sour on players so quickly these days, that they sometimes forget that growth isn’t always linear, ad that young players can start slowly and still reach skyscraper like heights. It’s too early to abandon the talent that is Moncada. There are warts, but with the price at a reasonable level, it’s still wise to invest in the talent that is Moncada given the totality of the skills that he brings to the diamond.
ADALBERTO MONDESI: The answer to your prayers? The “projectors” dream, Mondesi brings speed on the base paths at a time when that is in short supply. He also showed some pop last year leading many to believe he’s on the cusp of stardom. That’s the positive spin. The negative spin (which by the way is also a possible outcome, even if many want to dismiss the fact that he could fail to match the heights he climbed to last season) follows. I ask, with all sincerity, does Adalberto really profile any differently than Jonathan Villar? I don’t think so, and as of this writing Villar has an ADP that is virtually double at 81.3. I’m totally out on Mondesi at his current price.
WIL MYERS: Myers has dealt with injury, that cannot be ignored, but are we taking things a bit too far here? Even when hurt last season, Myers was still on a 20/20 pace, and as we’ve established, that HR/SB skillset is very tough to find at the corner infield spot. As also laid out, Myers might have shortcomings, OK he does, but he also owns a trait that precious few in baseball do – he’s exceedingly consistent no matter the scenario. Given the current cost for Myers, you should be all in on Myers.
JOSE PERAZA: The truth is that Peraza is who he is. It would not be shocking in the least to see him produce as much value as he did last season. I would expect him to get there a bit differently, a few more steals and a few less homers, but he’s settling in as a very solid option up the middle. He’s not sexy. He’s not likely to break out. He’s also not going to be a top-5 shortstop this season, but after the big names at the position come off the board, Peraza becomes a very appealing option that should aid your pursuit of steals and batting average.
YASIEL PUIG: Puig has talent, and his power/speed combo is a solid one. Same time, there is a tremendous amount of heat associated with his name, there are a lot of injuries in his background, and frankly, he’s really just a guy in the outfield in some respects given his lack of counting category prowess. He’s a nice target at the right price, but if the number creeps any higher than it currently is, you might want to consider passing on Puig (even if you do draft him, make sure to add some extra outfield draft since he’s likely to end up on the DL at some point).
AMED ROSARIO: Despite a relatively loaded shortstop position, the cost on Rosario at the moment is so muted that he represents a potentially significant ROI. The average should improve some, and even if his power doesn’t develop, the chance to nab a potential 30 steal bat up the middle should intrigue everyone given that, even in 15-team mixed leagues, he’s being drafted as a middle infielder.
GARY SANCHEZ: You can make the argument, I think I have, that given all of the above, that Sanchez is a top-5 catcher in all formats. If you want to argue top-3, I got no problem with that. There is power, lineup and ballpark favoring Sanchez. Sure, there are concerns about the batting average portion of the equation, cannot get around that, but given the relative lack of strength amongst the backstops with the bat in their hands, there’s no way around it with Sanchez – he’s an elite fantasy option at catcher. Do you want to go in early on a catcher? Are you in a one or two catcher setup? That’s more of the question with rostering Sanchez versus the output he will produce relative to his position.
JORGE SOLER: Would I be shocked if Soler went 25-75 this season? I wouldn’t be at all. When we consider the cost, basically free in most mixed leagues, you’re spending virtually no draft capitol to take the chance on a talent that could blow past his ADP. If healthy, he could exceed those homer and RBI target totals while providing a solid OBP and OPS. At the same time, the odds of some type of breakout season must be tempered by the history of Soler that suggests staying on the field long enough to reach inflated expectations is low.
ERIC THAMES: I have Thames ranked higher than the general community. I like his overall offensive game, think there is some untapped stolen base potential, and like the multi-position thing going for him. Thames is an example of “skills not role.” It’s undeniable that he’s without a spot in the starting lineup, but that’s as of today. Could that change, thrusting these skills into a starring role? You bet. Regardless of whether you agree with my call versus the ADP, it’s patently obvious that you could split the difference and basically make Thames one of the last players on your bench rather easily. I’m all in on that.
FERNANDO TATIS: What does all this mean? It means folks will be spending far too much money on Tatis in FAAB this week (I have to think it will cost at least 40 percent of your budget to add him, if not more). The range of outcomes from Tatis is pretty immense this season. I would say that a decent comp in 2019 is Tim Anderson, so be cautious with that FAAB bidding.
JONATHAN VILLAR: Run Forrest, run. That will be the key to Villar’s season. His batting average, homer total and runs batted in marks figure to just keep pace with the league average. He will generate his fantasy value with his wheels – leading to runs scored and steals. Given the dire state of running in 2019, even if his overall game is muted, if he steals 40+ bases there will be tremendous value produced by Villar. Add in that he has a bit more pop than most guys who run, and that he qualifies up the middle, you can see why his ADP is so high this season, though it must be pointed out that a repeat of last season’s overall production is possible which would make his cost a wee bit rich.
JESSIE WINKER: Winker has a great approach and will be a boon to those of you in OBP leagues (even in traditional setups, his batting average should also impress). However, there are still lingering questions about his health, his ability to reach the seats and if he will ever figure out how to drive the ball effectively against lefties. Given the ample options the Reds currently possess in the outfield, it’s uncertain if the Reds plan includes Winker playing every single day. Therefore, I would feel much better about rostering Winker in leagues where you can change your lineup on a daily basis so that you can pull him out of the lineup if the Reds to indeed decide to platoon him. Still, the cost is moderate enough that you can invest, but just be aware that for all the skills he possesses, there are still numerous unanswered questions revolving around the ample talent that he has at his fingertips.
PITCHERS
CHRIS ARCHER: Archer continues to be more about the parts, than he is about the overall package. Blessed with an impressive slider, and swing and miss stuff, he continually seems to underperform his measurables. You can make the case for improvement in 2019. You can make the case for continual blah ratios. What we do know is that he appears to be healthy and that he’s always tossing out a strikeout or more per inning. The move to the NL should help, he pitches in a solid environment (Park Factors have PNC park as 25th in runs and 26th in homers), and there are those strikeouts. The rest? That’s the tipping point with Archer, and at this point, it seems like things could go either way.
LUIS CASTILLO: Castillo is a young, strikeout per inning arm. He owns a solid 3.25 K/BB ratio, and lopped more than half a batter off his walk rate per nine last season. He also generates grounders, so on the surface he’s built to succeed. On the downside, there’s the persistent homer beatings he’s taken, and he needs to find a way to overcome lefties in a more effective manner. The seeds for success are here, and he posted a pretty impressive second half (2.44 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 4.93 K/BB ratio) when things started to fall back into place leading to some hope that the inconsistency which has plagued him might be starting to iron itself out. Over drafted last season, he’s cost this year is reasonable enough that investing yet again makes a lot of sense.
ANTHONY DESCLAFANI: There is no mixed league in the universe where folks are reaching for AD. In NFBC drafts since February 1st, the earliest AD has been drafted is pick 259, the latest pick 482. If judging by his ADP, AD will be a 29th round pick in a 15-team mixed league. At that cost, he’s virtually free. Add him, then drop him if he doesn’t pan out. No loss at all. Add him, watch him struggle, and add that rookie that gets called up. Add him, then drop him if you have an injury you need to fill. AD is free, so add away. As the notes above suggest, I’m a fan of the skill set and think that he will rise this season, at least to the level of being a streaming option in mixed leagues. If things break right, i.e. the homer to fly ball ratio drops to his/league average, his ERA will dip into the three’s enabling him to function as a usable mixed league piece. I’m totally in given the non-existent cost in mixed leagues. In NL-only leagues I’m even more in as the $2 bid, or 20th round draft selection, could lead to a bounty of positive production.
NATHAN EOVALDI: By now, you know my reluctance to roster a pitcher who simply cannot stay on the field. I’m also not in the habit of paying up for a guy coming off a career season. Eovaldi started to diversify his repertoire last season, he threw less heaters and increased his cutter rate, and that led to improvement. As noted above, I’m less than optimistic that he will hold on to all those gains. I’m also worried by his track record of ill health, and the fact that the Red Sox might limit him even when healthy (he didn’t throw 100 pitches in any of his final 16 outings). The price ain’t bad, but I’m just not a fan, so I’m certainly not reaching.
MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ: Hopefully you picked up the ton of the above. Folty had a great season. He throws extremely hard. His slider was an excellent pitch last season. Despite those three facts, the end results that he produced simply were not fully supported by his overall game. For seemingly every step forward he took last season, he either took a step back or plateaued in another category. There simply isn’t enough overall information with Foltynewicz to support his breakout performance. That’s not to suggest there isn’t a lot to like, there certainly is, but I’m merely pointing out that expecting a full-throated repeated seems rather rash given the totality of the data. The data suggests that an across the board pullback is likely. The ratios will likely go up, the strikeouts down, until things normalize a bit. There’s also the fact that Folty doesn’t have a track record of big innings on his arm which further diminishes some of the luster he garnered with his effort last season. Let someone else reach (his current ADP is aggressive).
KYLE FREELAND: Freeland is a great example of why looking just at ratios, without diving further into the skills, can be completely misleading. He was extremely fortunate in a myriad of categories – his work at home, his left on base rate etc. – and without the ability to miss bats, or avoid walks, at anything other than ‘just a guy’ levels, he’s a prime hurler to be overvalued by those that don’t do a bit more digging than just looking at the results of 2018.
TYLER GLASNOW: Glasnow has long been viewed as a potentially elite performer. It’s taken him longer than anticipated to live up to those expectations, but the ground swell is that it’s finally going to happen this season. There are still concerns – the walk, the homer and the lack of depth with his offerings – but there is no doubt that the ability to turn in a dominant fantasy season is possible. I would loosely compare him to Robbie Ray. See Ray’s efforts the last two seasons to get how things might go for Glasnow this year. It could be great… it could be solid… it could be spotty. That’s why folks aren’t reaching too much on Glasnow at the moment despite the arm talent.
MARCO GONZALES: Will Marco Gonzales end 2019 as an SP1 in fantasy? Plainly, no chance. However, look at that ADP of his. In a 12-team league with 23 starters, the result is 276 active players at any one time. Obviously, Marco’s ADP is outside that total speaking to the fact that on one is really at all excited about his prospects this season. I believe those folks are missing a tremendous buy low opportunity with Gonzales. With health, I find it hard to believe he doesn’t better his overall results from last season. At his current cost, that means you will be able to swoop in late and grab a guy that could perform at a level that will cut his ADP in half. The strikeouts, the lack of them, could hold him back from outright starring this season, but Marco Gonzales will be a staple of many championship level clubs as a “depth” draft selection that greatly exceeds his draft day cost.
ANDREW HEANEY: There are skills to envy, some concerns and health to factor in with Heaney. If he was 23 instead of 27 years of age, I would hold out a little more hope for him. If he wasn’t so flat out bad at keeping the ball in the yard against righties, I would hold out a little more hope for him (until he develops an ability to keep the ball out of the seats, it’s hard to view him as a legit option to post an ERA much below 3.75, given that he pitches in the American League). If he had more consistently been on the diamond a bit more, I would hold out a little more hope for him. All told this is a nice skillset, if he can stay on the field long enough for it to matter.
PABLO LOPEZ: When you speak of taking a young arm, coming off an injury, when said pitcher has workload concerns there is risk. Add in the uncertainty of his role, and you have yourself access to the proverbial dart throw. Add in that Lopez isn’t a huge miser of bats… I like the skills here, who doesn’t? The cost is also so low that you can take Lopez as your last mixed league arm, and if it doesn’t work out you can quickly pivot to another. If that’s your plan, I can give a thumbs up to it.
GERMAN MARQUEZ: The history of borderline elite fantasy performers on the bump that call Colorado home is extremely short. Looking at the history of the team, there just aren’t many hurlers who have consistently posted seasons of $15 dollars earned, and I certainly think it’s hard to predict a pitcher to perform at that level after just a half season of really looking like that guy. Marquez undeniably had an impressive second half, which is what you say when a guy has a .262 wOBA, and his combination of power, grounders and lack of walks excites. Still, there is the fact that his second half explosion tweaks me as a bit of a random, sample size driven run, versus a newly established level for the young arm. Further, the elephant in the room, Coors Field, isn’t going away. Since he has as of yet to conquer Coors, Marquez holds a little more value in leagues that allow daily lineup changes versus weekly, as daily change will allow you to micromanage Marquez in a manner that may allow you to maximize the results. I’m a fan of the skills, no doubt, but at the current cost I would suggest caution as you’re likely looking at some disappointment.
SEAN NEWCOMB: The real issue with Newcomb is that if we pull back and compare his first season to his second, it really doesn’t seem like he showed any appreciable growth, across the board, in his second season. In fact, his performance pulled back a wee bit so stagnant would be the best way to describe the second-year effort. When you consider that he just doesn’t come close to throwing enough strikes, and that his walk rate is impossibly high, you have to come to the conclusion that a breakout in year three would take steps that simple aren’t in evidence at the moment. Pretty close to being just a guy with some strikeouts in mixed leagues.
EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ: For me, it’s not right to say ‘he’s been around for a while and is just 25 years old, so he’s likely to improve,’ though I know many will suggest that. Saying ‘his strikeout rate improved so he will be better’ is not enough either, not for me at least. I would suggest that Rodriguez basically is who he is. Will he last 30 starts or throw 175 innings? History says no. He simply doesn’t work deep into games. History says so. Though his K-rate was up last season, it seems likely we will see some regression this season. His fly ball and homer rates leave him susceptible to big innings. I’m still in the camp that suggest his value is more about the “B” on his hat and the belief that his game will jump to the next level, if the data doesn’t suggest that the likelihood of that is high.
JUSTUS SHEFFIELD: Sheffield has an intriguing arm. As noted, he needs to develop his changeup to take his game to the next level, and to truly settle into the role of a starting pitcher. It’s quite possible he fills a hybrid role this season, being used as a starter and a reliever in the bigs, and that does dampen his outlook. Also, of concern is the lack of high-level innings on his arm. Still, when we’re talking about dart throws late, this is a name to focus on. It might take some patience to see a return on your investment, so it might also be worth putting him on your watch list while watching how it will play out. At the same time, if he’s called up to fill a starting spot with the Mariners, realize that there will be a lot of excitement in the fantasy game which will cause him to be rather pricey to pick up off waivers in a lot of leagues.
CALEB SMITH: The range of outcomes for Smith is rather substantial. The homer ball could continue along as his Achilles heel, and he could produce like a Dylan Bundy type in 2019. In fact, that’s a pretty decent comp if I were pressed. If he can figure a way to better attack righties, or to cut his walks down just a bit, he could become a Julio Teheran type with more punchouts. Given his free cost in all but the deepest of leagues, or in those fantasy leagues emanating from Florida, it might just be worth a reserve round kick of the tires in the hopes that a couple of incremental gains could lead to a pretty solid season from the lefty.
TYLER SKAGGS: Given everything discussed above, a best-case scenario would seem to be 150-innings for Skaggs, so keep that in mind when you’re thinking about rostering the lefty. There’s a borderline K per inning arm here, but there’s really nothing in the overall profile to suggest that another level in performance is likely meaning, his value is pretty dependent on the innings pitched total. The ratios don’t figure to better the league average, at least not in a significant way, so as much as you might like the guy, the fact is that his current profile screams mediocrity in a mixed league. Finally, when you add in the obvious health concerns, it would be wise to make sure that if you roster Skaggs that you have ample DL spots at your disposal because it’s a near certainty that he will end up on the sidelines at some point.
MATT STRAHAM: Strahm has talent, throws four pitches, and misses bats. There’s a lot to like with the skill set here. That said, my biggest concern is obvious with Strahm – how much work can he take? If drafting Strahm I would suggest viewing him as, in a best-case scenario, as being Rich Hill. Honestly, he’s even less certain to throw 125-innings than Hill at this point, and that’s the rub (and remarkable to write). If you draft Strahm at pick 289 as his ADP suggest, it’s fine. If it doesn’t work out, or if he’s injured, you can just head to the wire to grab another arm. However, not that Strahm has gone as high as 63 in a draft at the NFBC. Don’t be that guy/gal. When looking at the arm right in front of him in ADP – Julio Teheran – you have an established arm that you can feel confident will throw 175-innings. You can try the upside play with Strahm, just understand the downside is also something that should be considered when you consider when to call out his name.
BATTLE OF THE EXPERTS
Finally, we have our Battle of the Experts Series which included myself and Vlad Sedler going back and forth on these men.
HITTERS
PITCHERS
