Thanks to DLF’s Rookie Mock Draft ADP, we have a way to evaluate where prospects are going and how the market values them. At this stage in the process, player values are still swinging wildly in the media as information gets leaked, but as far as dynasty owners are concerned, we should be pretty refined in our evaluations. NFL teams have a lot of things to evaluate that the public has little access to, like injuries and off-field situations. For fantasy purposes, we’re ready to go. The NFL draft will tell us a lot for the fringe players (mid-to-late round selections), but as far as top-end talent (guaranteed to go in the top three rounds), there’s enough information to have informed opinions. With that considered, let’s take a look at some of this mock draft data, and make some evaluations based on where players are going.
Tier-Based Favorites
FADE: Josh Jacobs
FAVORITE: AJ Brown
There’s been plenty of conversation about Jacobs this offseason. Some of it great, some of it bad. He slots into a great position in terms of ADP in early mock drafts. Jacobs is currently viewed as the consensus top RB in this rookie class but hasn’t proven enough through resume building (college production or athletic testing) to deserve that claim. Can Jacobs become a stud fantasy RB if he gets drafted in the top three rounds to a team with a major need at RB? Sure. But until that happens, his profile is very hollow and shouldn’t be valued above the tier two WRs in this class.
If Brown is going to be valued in the 1.05 range, he’ll be acquired at a high exposure rate by savvy owners. After testing out well at the combine (89th percentile speed score), there are little-to-no questions remaining regarding Brown’s potential as a prospect. There’s still a chance Brown will slide to the second round of the NFL draft, but regardless, where he lands will be a positive indicator. Brown will likely have early opportunity to produce.
FADE: David Montgomery
FAVORITE: Miles Sanders
As has been the theme of the summer, if there’s an article written by Russell Clay, it’s probably not going to say nice things about Montgomery. While the general appearance of his prospect profile is solid, where he’s been valued simply doesn’t make sense. Again, if he does get drafted in the top three rounds, that could change things, but there are legitimate questions to where he’ll go. If drafting before the combine, be aware Montgomery could be in for a big shift in value if things don’t go as the public plans during the draft.
On the other end of the spectrum, Sanders has slowly but surely climbed in value the last couple of months. Sanders didn’t produce much early in his career, but that was for legitimate reasons (Saquon Barkley!), and finished off his career with a really solid 2018 season (1,413 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns). Sanders tested out as an upper tier athlete at the combine, posting a 75th percentile speed score, 75th percentile burst score and an 82nd percentile agility score. He’s built like a starting RB and displayed starter traits on a power five school. Sanders is a lock for the top three rounds and should be considered right with the aforementioned Jacobs for the top RB spot in the 2019 class.
FADE: Devin Singletary
FAVORITE: Parris Campbell
Singletary tested out as a bad athlete at the combine (13th percentile speed score and 17th percentile agility score), is listed at a very small height (5’7”) and played for a non-power-five conference school (Florida Atlantic). Now, there have been outliers in all those factors (size, production and athletic testing), but players like Darren Sproles and Maurice Jones-Drew tested as hyper-athletic short RBs and played for power-five schools. Non-power five prospects have become prominent players in the NFL as well, but they also all tested out well athletically. Singletary can still figure out an NFL role and sustain a career, but fantasy prevalence is a real long-shot, and he’s being drafted around high-probability players.
Campbell is not an easy player to evaluate, specifically from a film perspective. Most of his career receptions came close to the line of scrimmage and provided little-to-no help in evaluating his ability to run routes that would be expected of an NFL WR. However, considering how players like Curtis Samuel and Tyreek Hill have acclimated themselves over the last couple of seasons, NFL teams could highly value Campbell in the NFL draft. Campbell broke the combine, posting a 96th percentile speed score and a 97th percentile burst score. Before that point, he wasn’t on the radar of many mock drafters as an early round selection, but those scores will vault him to, at the latest, a second-round selection. Getting a WR with that draft position and future opportunity in the middle of the second round would be a great investment.
FADE: Riley Ridley
FAVORITE: Myles Gaskin
Ridley isn’t a player who should be on radars this early in rookie drafts. He wasn’t a productive college player and tested out like a player who is bordering on NFL athleticism. Ridley certainly has skills that will translate to the NFL, but in this range of rookie drafts, there are still more athletic and highly productive college players who will be drafted (in the NFL draft) before Ridley and have a much higher probability of future success.
Gaskin doesn’t profile like a featured NFL RB, but his athleticism, production profile and projected draft round range suggest he could be a valuable asset. In this range of the draft, players like that would be considered hits and should be valued highly. If Gaskin gets selected in the top three rounds of the NFL draft, his value will vault 10-12 spots at a minimum. Gaskin produced 5,788 yards from scrimmage in his college career and then posted a 73rd percentile SPARQ-x score at the combine. Gaskin’s resume simply doesn’t match the players he’s currently being drafted around.
FADE: Antoine Wesley
FAVORITE: Jalen Hurd
It’s tough to say any player is a fade in this range, but Wesley’s profile is one to avoid based on historical trends. Wesley is a player who struggled for playing time in his first two seasons, only playing seven games and producing only 10 receptions. A junior season breakout was nice to see, though, as he produced 1,410 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. Wesley ended up running a 4.65 40-yard dash at his pro day (adjust accordingly), which is very bad for his weight (205) and not a speed starting NFL WRs usually run. Wesley is looking at a late-round draft position and is likely going to have to get lucky to find starter snaps.
Hurd is arguably the biggest wildcard of the entire 2019 class. After being a successful RB for Tennessee for two seasons, Hurd transferred to Baylor and transitioned to WR. Hurd is an enormous human being, hulking around at the combine at 6 foot 5 and 226 pounds. Hurd didn’t do athletic testing but will be a very intriguing prospect to watch if he chooses to do so. Hurd displayed real WR skills in his final season at Baylor and could be a solid bet an NFL team takes a chance on in the draft. There’s clearly a special skill set with Hurd, and organizations are becoming more and more open to the idea they can create special roles for tweener-type athletes.
