The Mets, unexpectedly, chose to break camp with Peter Alonso on the team. What should be expected of the slugger in his rookie season? Austin Meadows is batting leadoff for the Rays, and he has the skills that should entice in the fantasy game. The Dodgers are all kinds of messy in their rotation, so Ray breaks down the two arms they will turn to in the early going in Ross Stripling and Julio Urias. Ray also speaks about some Opening Day info that stood out such as the pitching battle with deGrom and Scherzer, McCutchen’s homer and Dee Gordon and Victor Robles spots in the batting order.
THE METS TAKE A CHANCE ON ALONSO
In a somewhat surprising move, the Mets chose to promote Peter Alonso to the major league roster for day one, and he opened up in the second hole with the Mets. Possibly the least athletic second hitter in big league history, Alonso went 1-for-4 in the game before being removed for a pinch runner. Here are some long-term thoughts on Alonso.
1 – He’s not gonna hit second long term, or the Mets are in big trouble.
2 – Alonso will frequently be pulled from games because of his defense or plodding nature on the base paths (he is painfully slow).
3 – Alonso struck out twice on O.D., and his contact rate could be a concern. He had a 26 percent K-rate last season at Triple-A, and the scouting community has concerns that against elite level stuff he seems to expand a zone a bit, especially against breaking pitches. That said, he does understand the strike zone pretty well and he’s certainly not afraid to take a walk.
4 – Alonso can’t run, so he’s not going to be beating out any infield singles. Alonso also hits a lot of fly balls leading to a career GB/FB ratio under 1.00, good for the homers but bad for the batting average, and through five minor league stops Alonso never posted a line drive rate of even 18 percent (the league average last year was about 21 percent). He’s not gonna steal bases, and his batting average figures to be a league average type of number versus the .291 mark he owns as a minor leaguer.
Often compared to Paul Konerko, Alonso isn’t likely to produce a stat line like a peak Konerko. In fact, he profiles this season as nothing more than one of about 10 guys who could function as your corner infield option in mixed leagues. Being that he’s a rookie, and in New York, there is a wee bit too much helium going on here. Alonso doesn’t profile anything different than guys like Santana/Smoak/Y.Alonso/Thames/Mancini/Voit/etc. in 2019, and that might be a best case scenario for the Mets’ rookie since the rostrer also has options in Todd Frazier, Domonic Smith and J.D. Davis lurking for at-bats.
MEADOWS BATTING LEADOFF
Austin Meadows hit leadoff for the Rays on O.D., and he hit an opposite field homer in his first at-bat. Meadows is one heck of a young talent, one that I’ve lauded for years, and one that I’m building around in the SiriusXM Dynasty League (45 players and 15 teams). The problem has been, for a few years, that he’s continually dealing with lower body issues. If he can overcome those issues, and he keeps searching for the secret sauce to do just that (weights, stretching, training etc.), he can be Andrew Benintendi-light. That’s right, he has the ability to go 15/15 and it wouldn’t be at all surprising if he also hit .285. If he continues to fill the leadoff spot ahead of Tommy Pham this season, the up arrow goes even higher.
STRIPLING & URIAS STARTING
The Dodgers open the year with uncertainty surround Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill. It sounds like WB should be OK, but we will have to watch how things play out for him after last years significant innings increase. Kershaw sounds like he could be back by the end of April, while Hill and that Knee of his suggest a similar return date. Even if those three arms develop as currently expected, it’s still gonna take something monumental to have two of the three hit 160-innings pitched. In point of fact, there’s no chance that Hill gets there, and it seems unlikely at this point that Kershaw will either. As a result, there will be a need for starts, and not just in April either but potentially all year long (it’s not like Hyun-Jin Ryu can be counted on at all either). So, what will the team do? Here are the two current early options.
Ross Stripling made 21 starts and threw 122 innings last season. Through 296.1 career innings he has 284 strikeouts, a 4.00 K/BB ratio and a 1.21 WHIP. He throws strikes, doesn’t beat himself, and he gets grounders (a 45 percent GB-rate last season and 48.2 for his career). The last two years he’s been exposed to a lot of homers, a near 1.3 HR/9 rate, but that rate should come down a wee bit after allowing a 16.5 percent HR/FB ratio. In 2016 he threw 119.2 innings. In 2017 he threw 77.2 innings. Last season he threw 122 frames. Injuries have been part of his game, and he seemingly isn’t built to be a 175-inning guy, and luckily, he won’t need to be with the Dodgers this season as he figures to be more of a turn-to-when-in-need option.
Julio Urias does not have an official innings pitched limit this season. I know that one of their radio guys said 100, but there was no quote from anyone with the team (it was just dudes opinion). So as those of you that follow me on Twitter realize, there is no firm amount of innings that Urias will be allowed to throw (in fact, here is the manager, Dave Roberts, being reported as saying there is no hard limit). That said, it’s reasonable to think that 100 innings isn’t that far off what should be expected at the top end. The 22 year old has been micromanaged for years, and injuries have been ever present as well for Urias. Through it all he’s thrown the following number of innings since 2015: 77.1 innings, 122 innings, 54.2 innings and 15.2 innings. Urias will start the year in the rotation, but it seems pretty clear that he’s merely holding the spot of Hill until the veteran returns. Urias seems more likely to he a high leverage middle reliever this season than a starting pitching option. Remember, that there will be a shutdown at some point if he’s used as a starting pitcher for an extended period of time.
Here’s the truth. The Dodgers may not have any arm make 30 starts this season. That’s not surprising given that they didn’t have anyone make 28 starts last season and they also didn’t have any, not one, pitcher who qualified for the ERA tittle (Kershaw fell two outs short). It’s likely to be a long season of guys moving in an out of the starting rotation that will likely cause a lot of consternation in the fantasy game.
EARLY OPENING DAY THOUGHTS
Jacob deGrom and the Mets beat the Nationals and Max Scherzer 2-0 on Thursday. What was telling was the historical nature of the two arms as deGrom struck out 10 batters in six innings while Scherzer punched out 12 Mets in his 7.2 frames. Both starters with 10 strikeouts hadn’t happened in an Opening Day matchup since 1970 when Dave McNally and Sam McDowell pulled off the feat.
Dee Gordon, long a top of the order threat, is batting ninth in the Mariners home opener. They face a lefty which might be why he was dropped down, though he hit first in the two games in Japan when the Mariners faced righties.
Andrew McCutchen hit a home run in his first at-bat with the Phillies. Only two other Phils have done that: Cesar Hernandez in 2017 and Heinie Mueller in 1938.
Victor Robles hit ninth on O.D. We thought it might happen like that, but man, it was still disappointing to see it happen. Players lose about 15-20 plate appearances, over the course of the season, for every spot in the batting order that they drop. If he continues to hit 9th, instead of let’s say second, his plate appearance total is dropping by 100 trips to the dish. That’s no bueno. He should still run, one would think, but his overall outlook is muted a bit by the spot.
Kolten Wong has teased us all at some point. Raise your hand if you have owned Wong at some point? Everyone has their hand up right? Well, the athletic, slick fielding second sacker went deep twice on Opening Day for the Cardinals. He’s probably on waivers in your league, and he ahs the ability to go 15/15. At the same time, we’ve been saying that for five years now and he’s never gotten close. He’s oft injured, and platooned, so be cautious overestimating the huge start.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
