It’s the real Opening Day for Major League Baseball in 2019, and it’s about damn time. Gone are the days of endlessly debating which player to take in the second round and our incessant need to constantly analyze ADP data. We can finally start to move into the realm of the real as the season gets underway. Thanks for bringing us in the Guru family into your home this season. We appreciate that. Without further ado, let’s dig in to some of the bigger stories as we ramp up the season, not the least of which is the potential that Eloy Jimenez and Fernando Tatis bring to the field.
ELOY JIMENEZ PROMOTED
Eloy Jimenez is a rich man singing a contract that could pay him up to $75 million. He will open the year batting fifth for the White Sox.
Here’s a Jimenez Player Profile, down and dirty.
Jimenez has elite power, and to all fields. His smooth swing has drawn some comparisons to Miguel Cabrera, though his high leg kick and coiling action is different. Like Miggy, Jimenez has an advanced understanding of what pitchers are trying to do to him, and he’s able to make adjustments quickly, something so many young players struggle to do. He’s also able to let the ball travel deep in the zone, displaying the confidence and understanding that he will still be able to drive the ball the opposite way. As they say, his feel for hitting is off the charts.
Eloy owns a .311/.359/.519 line in the minors as he’s hit everywhere he has been including last season with a .961 OPS, 22 homers and 75 RBI in just 108 games. He owns an average-ish 0.38 BB/K ratio, but that’s more about the lack of walks than the strikeout totals as his K-rate is less than 20 percent in the minors, an excellent level for a player with his power.
His defense is flat our poor, and he’s never gonna steal bases with below average speed. Still, he’s a legit middle of the order threat in year one. If he can stay healthy, something that has been challenging for him at times, his performance should be in the Michael Conforto to Stephen Piscotty range this season at the top end, with the ability to hit more homers than either man.
FERNANDO TATIS JR. PROMOTED
The Padres better sign Fernando Tatis to a seven year contract soon, or they wasted an entire year of player control for two weeks in April as they unexpectedly called him up to start the season (for more on contracts and rookies see Be Cautious With Rookies). His addition meant that Luis Urias was sent back to the minors and the stay could end up being lengthy, potentailly stretching to the second half (Ian Kinsler will play second full time now, though for the life of me I cannot understand why the Padres are rolling with Tatis, Francisco Mejia and Chris Paddack… and the ancient Kinsler at second and not Urias).
Here’s a Tatis Player Profile, down and dirty.
A dynamic talent, Tatis is a top-3 prospect in all of baseball according to the big-3 (America, Prospectus and MLB.com). Given his power speed game, and the fact that he plays shortstop, his fantasy upside is immense. The question is, how much development is still needed for Tatis, who is just 20 years old without a single official at-bat above Double-A? It’s even more than that. Tatis has just 451 plate appearances above Single-A ball. Folks, he has less than a full season of professional baseball above Single-A. Is he ready to hit 6th on Opening Day for the Padres?
Tatis appeared in just 88 games last season due to an injury, but he was dynamic in that time with a .286-16-43-77-16 line, this a year after a 20/30 season in 131 games. That power/speed combo screams out 20/20 potential, and most scouts believe as he continues to fill out, and bulk up, that 30 homers are in reach as the ball jumps off the bat, including to the opposite field where he can blast balls into the gap or loft them into the seats when he uses that approach.
Now the concerns.
His swing has a lot of moving parts meaning he has to have everything in a nice rhythm of his timing can get disrupted a bit. Some concern therefore is voiced by scouts who wonder if he’s ready to handle what the elite arms of the game can throw at him, the sequencing etc. Tatis can also become pull happy at times, and that can lead to a whole bushel of strikeouts. Not a few, but a ton. In 274 minor league games he’s struck out 307 times leading to a 0.40 BB/K ratio and led to a K-rate of 29 percent at Double-A. That swing and miss nature is a legit concern for Tatis in year one, especially given his lack of experience in professional baseball. Let me be clear. He has power and speed, and that should play, but the potential swing and miss nature of his game could lead to a lot of strikeouts, and a depressed average and on-base percentage.
What does all this mean? It means folks will be spending far too much money on Tatis in FAAB this week (I have to think it will cost at least 40 percent of your budget to add him, if not more). The range of outcomes from Tatis is pretty immense this season. I would say that a decent comp in 2019 is Tim Anderson, so be cautious with that FAAB bidding.
FRANCISCO LINDOR SETBACK
Francisco Lindor was pushing to make the Opening Day roster for the Indians. It isn’t happening as he had a setback. Already out with a calf issue, Lindor suffered an ankle sprain in a rundown in a game Wednesday. As of this writing it’s unclear how much time Lindor will be out. I’ve already suggested everyone back off their Lindor love, flat out saying I personally wouldn’t draft him in the first two rounds of a mixed league draft. This latest setback has to throw his entire month of April into doubt, at the very least his ability to help on the base paths, so I hope you slow played Lindor in drafts and let someone else roster him.
MARINERS MESSING AROUND WITH ROTATION
I think all analysts look at Yusei Kikuchi and believes he will be an effective arm this season. However, his star is dimming a bit as we start the season.
Did you see the recent report about how Yusei would be used this season, his first in North America? Every five times through the rotation for Kikuchi, he will have one of his starts limited. Oh, I’m not talking to 60 or 65 pitches either. I’m talking about the Mariners planning on every fifth start for Kikuchi to throw – one inning. You got it. For four outings he will be a starting pitcher, and for the fifth he will be an Opener. “…when you come up with a plan, you have to stay true to it. You can’t get caught up in the, ‘Oh, he’s throwing great. We can’t shut him down now.’ We want to be smart. We’re playing for the long haul.”
Ugh.
NO LOVE FOR…
Who am I?
I posted a better ERA last year than Corey Kluber.
I posted a better WHIP last year than Carlos Carrasco.
I posted a better K/9 rate last year than Zack Greinke.
I posted a better BB/9 rate last year than Jacob deGrom.
So, who am I?
I’m Clayton Kershaw.
RED SOX NOTES
I wrote a Player Profile on Rafael Devers, and I mentioned in it how he might hit third. Well, turns out he will hit third, at least most of the time. I write “most” because it sure sounds like the Sox will use Steve Pearce, when healthy (he should miss about three weeks with a calf issue), as the third hitter against lefty arms. A lefty masher his entire career, it still seems extremely odd to me that the Sox would actually hit Pearce third. Devers does his see his value increase a bit, but as I wrote about in the PP, I just can’t see a true breakout happening for Devers in any of the data I looked at. He’s still not a top-12 third sacker for me as we enter the season.
The second oddity is the Sox bullpen. This team has no closer, hasn’t named a closer, and thinks they are going to the playoffs with their top two 9th inning arms (Ryan Brasier and Matt Barnes) owning two career saves.
No closer, and a part-time three-hole hitter who is a platoon guy?
Welcome to spreadsheet driven baseball in 2019.
THE SEARCH FOR SPEED
Everyone is hunting for it. A couple of thoughts on it follow.
Lewis Brinson has been awful in his big-league career, but he was solid in the Spring (.896 OPS with five homers), and he will open the year batting leadoff for the Marlins. He could swipe 20 bases this season.
Billy Hamilton has stolen 55 bases in 4-of-5 seasons. He should play daily for the Royals this season, and a fifth season of 50-steals sure seems doable. Makes me wonder why everyone is out on Hamilton after years of being in on him? I grabbed him in the SiriusXM Host League in the 14th round.
Mallex Smith will start in center field on Opening Day. The elbow has been an early concern, but it sounds like that is behind him. The 25 year old was two hits from a .300 season with 40 steals last season. He’s one of the better steal men in the game, and with a .277 career average and .346 OBP, he’s a much better hitter than B. Hamilton.
Finally, Adam Jones has no speed, but he’s batting leadoff for the D’backs in 2019. Jones should never hit leadoff, ever, and certainly not at this stage of his career. Things could be ugly in the desert this year.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
