The NFL is built upon what college football provides. Every year, there’s a focus on incoming rookies and players who are going to make impacts for their new teams, but where did those players come from? What did they look like as underclassmen in college? How productive were they? The goal of this article is to help provide analysis that will improve readers ability to identify NFL players who are still in college. Each week, there will be four players evaluated and given an NFL projected draft position based on their current historical indicators.
There are many tidbits and clues the NFL leaves behind pertaining to what they’re looking for in an NFL Draft prospect. The basic strength, speed and athleticism are factors in building a skill position player, but it’s clear there’s more to it than that. When reviewing the NFL Draft over the last two decades, there’s statistical trends and traits NFL teams look for before selecting players as well. This article, which highlights players not yet draft eligible, will highlight those factors.
THE PROSPECTS
JD Spielman (WR, Nebraska)
Yes, you read that correctly. Spielman. As in, the son of Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. Spielman is a speedster and all-purpose weapon for Nebraska who thrives off speed and his ability to separate in route-running. It’s tough to gauge just how fast Spielman is, or what his 40-yard dash will be at the combine, but it’s clearly an asset at the college level. It’s fair to argue that Spielman’s freshman season was better than his 2018 (Sophomore) season, accumulating 830 receiving yards and 55 receptions as a true freshman. In a similar vein to Brandin Cooks, Spielman has a small but stocky frame (Listed at 5 foot 9 and 185 pounds). The combination of early career production, expected athletic testing (at the very least, above average) and lack of major injury issues vault Spielman into a very high floor scenario. It’s tough to tell if Spielman will leave early, but if he puts up similar or slightly better numbers than his first two seasons in 2020, there’s a really solid opportunity for him to be drafted in the top three rounds of the NFL draft. There’s been potential shown on both deep targets and plays close to the line of scrimmage, and with some of the new rules opening up route-running lanes for smaller wide receivers, Spielman could be hitting the draft in the perfect era.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: Second/Third Round – This will all come down to how well Spielman tests out athletically. He’s putting together a great resume, but WRs on the smaller end of the size spectrum need to test out special do become top three round selections.
Similar Prospect(s): Eddie Royal
Jake Fromm (QB, Georgia)
Fromm has been attacked by draft evaluators all offseason. Between Riley Ridley, Terry Godwin and MeCole Hardman, there’s a lot of frustration surrounding those prospects and their lack of career production. One of the easiest scapegoats to shift away blame from the WRs is Fromm and his game-manager style. Fromm is coming off a 30 touchdown, six interception 2018 season, where he completed 67.4 percent of his 307 attempts and threw for 2761 passing yards (9.0 yards per attempt). Quite frankly, Fromm didn’t receive many opportunities to run up the score in 2018, as Georgia didn’t play in the second half on many occasions. He had one bad game against LSU (completed only 47.1 percent of his attempts, and threw two interceptions), but came back with a very strong game against Alabama (301 passing yards and three touchdowns). Fromm has had a unique career In that he started and played well as a true freshman in 2017, creating top-end quarterback prospect hype, but almost got sent to the bench in his sophomore season. Through no fault of his own, Fromm went into 2018 battling for his starter life against incoming quarterback recruit Justin Fields. Fields was the second-ranked prospect in the country (Rivals) and reminded many of Cam Newton with his size, athleticism and talent. Fromm ended up winning the starting gig, and Fields has since transferred (Ohio State). While Fromm was the incumbent, it’s still a very positive indicator that he could beat out a player of that quality. Despite the complaints about his play, Fromm enters his Junior season as an almost guaranteed future top-five selection and will continue to have the spotlight shined brightly on him considering the quality of his team.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: Top-5 – Fromm’s combination of solid play from an early age, play in big games, overall strength of opponents faced and prototypical size should lock him into top five selection status.
Similar Prospect(s): Matthew Stafford/Sam Bradford
Tyler Johnson (WR, Minnesota)
Johnson is a player that’s been on NFL draft radars for years, and 2018 did nothing to dissuade his enthusiasts. With head coach P.J. Fleck comes featured wide receivers, and Johnson has taken that role and ran with it over the last two seasons. Fleck was the mastermind behind Corey Davis and his immaculate production, and while Johnson isn’t quite on the same pace, 1,169 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns in 2018 pretty special. Johnson is listed at 6 foot 2 and 200 pounds, which makes sense, and appears to have the body type to add bulk. Johnson thrives in intermediate areas of the field, finding ways to gain separation and using his strength to break tackles and always fall forward. Johnson isn’t an elite prospect after the catch, but he’s shown the ability to be elusive and savvy. There was no secret he was the top weapon in the Minnesota offense, and that resulted in extra coverage, which limited him in certain games, but knowing that context, it’s excusable. Despite staying for his senior season, Johnson is still young from a prospect profile standpoint, and his 2018 season already cemented his status as a metric evaluator favorite. Johnson doesn’t appear to be an elite athlete, but it also doesn’t appear to hinder his game.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: Third/Fourth Round – Not being an elite athlete will certainly shift his draft value, but his solid age-adjusted production at a power five school should buoy his draft round range.
Similar Prospect(s): Mario Manningham/Leonard Hankerson
JK Dobbins (RB, Ohio State)
Dobbins’ freshman season set an unrealistically high expectation. 2017 was a special, special year for the then true freshman Dobbins, and when looking back on his draft evaluation, that year should be weighed HEAVILY. Dobbins accumulated 1403 rushing yards on only 194 attempts (7.2 yards per attempt) and even added 135 receiving yards. The offense shifted in an enormous way in 2018, as it went from the J.T. Barrett led, run-first offense to Dwayne Haskins and his pure passing ways. This negatively affected the offensive line in the running game, and lanes simply weren’t opening at the same rate for Dobbins in his sophomore season. Dobbins is bordering on prototypical size, listed at 5 foot 10 and 214 pounds. In his first two seasons, Dobbins has shown just about everything that’s desired in a featured NFL running back, and considering his comfy situation at Ohio State, he’ll likely have another season to show off those skills in optimal conditions. Dobbins’ Teammate Mike Weber is headed to the draft, and while Ohio State will always have a stable of future NFL running backs, Dobbins should receive by far the biggest role of his career (300 touches isn’t out of the question). Dobbins isn’t likely to test out as an elite athlete, but his combination of skills and above average athletic ability will have NFL decision-makers drooling.
PROJECTED DRAFT ROUND: First/Second Round – As mentioned, Dobbins will be in an amazing position to put up a prolific 2019 season, and combining that with the rest of his production profile, it’s very easy to see him entering the round one conversation.
Similar Prospect(s): Mark Ingram/Sony Michel
