There is only one thing better than fantasy baseball draft season. The actual games – and even that’s debatable with just how much fun draft season is! Well, we are right on the precipice of Opening Day, and I hope we helped you properly prepare for your drafts. I just flew back from NFBC weekend in Las Vegas, and boy are my arms tired! Well, actually, my brain is. Last Saturday was one hell of an adventure with two four-hour mega drafts with my co-manager Rob Silver. I don’t usually get exhausted from four-hour drafts, but entering each and every one of the 900 picks into my RotoLab software surely took its toll. Rob and I picked 14th out of 15 teams in the Main Event that morning and drew the same slot in the Platinum later that evening. The previous season, Rob and I came in second in the Platinum, though, it took four months of ratio grinding after nearly half of our pitchers got hurt in April and May. This year, we decided to differentiate exposure for our first and second round picks in case the injury bug struck hard. In Main, we took Jose Altuve and Trevor Bauer (14, 17 overall), and in Platinum, Trevor Story and Justin Verlander. Grabbing an ace starting pitcher was important in both leagues, as pitching is always inevitably pushed up in these live contests. I mean, even Jack Flaherty was taken in the early third round that day. Getting a nice hitter + pitcher base has always worked well for me in these contests in the past, and this year should be no different.
Here’s the final tally of what I entered/drafted in 2019:
- NFBC Platinum (split with Rob, 15-team closed satellite, $120k to 1st, $60k to 2nd)
- Two (2) NFBC Main Events (15-team league, 555 total in pool, $150k grand prize)
- Five (5) NFBC Online Champions (12-team, over 2000 teams, $125k grand prize)
- Four (4) NFBC Draft Champions (15-team, no FAAB, slow draft, $30k grand prize)
- One (1) NFBC Cutline (10-team best ball points, Beat Vlad league)
- TGFBI (Justin Mason’s experts invitational – hosted on NFBC)
- Tout Wars Draft’n’Hold (15-team, no FAAB, slow draft)
- FSTA Experts League (14-teamer)
I’ll go through some of the players I have multiple exposure of (three or more shares) and share some thoughts on the player pool, per position.
Catcher
Most-owned: Contreras, Barnes, Astudillo, Swihart, Narvaez
FOMO (guys I wish I had more shares of): Mejia, Hicks, Jansen
It’s no secret this is a position I have success punting each and every year. Sure, it’s a bit of a headache having to stream my C2 for most of the season. But playing matchups at a position where only the top tier guys play even close to full time makes sense. Last season, it was a lot of Elias Diaz and Kurt Suzuki, and it worked out just fine, as I won five of the eight high stakes leagues I entered. Spending up for catcher just didn’t make sense to me this season, and there was no point in any of my 16 drafts where I was ever worried about a ‘catcher run’.
Skipping the Realmutos and Sanchezes of the world, the only time I paid a top-150 overall price for a catcher was in 12-team leagues where Yasmani Grandal and Willson Contreras fell past their ADP. Grandal moves to a great home park, has averaged 24 homers over the last three seasons and has an impressive career 13% walk rate, but I didn’t see the need paying up for a .240-BA guy. Contreras was drafted as a top-three catcher last season and busted, but he seemed like a fantastic value in the 10-11 round range of 12-team leagues this year. I took him where it made sense in a couple drafts but otherwise didn’t push for him.
I kept it simple this spring, drafting mostly Austin Barnes, Omar Narvaez and Willians Astudillo after Round 18 in both 12’s and 15’s. My philosophy is typically the same at the position, as I prefer backstops who won’t hurt me in batting average. Narvaez is my least favorite of the bunch, as I believe last year’s .275 was his ceiling. Barnes was never fully healthy last year and should easily out-earn his 300 ADP with a surprisingly productive season. Astudillo was someone I was willing to take a chance on despite not having a set position, but these types of situations end up working themselves out for the talented. We’ll see Astudillo find his way into the lineup most of the season, and with Sano out for the month, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him holding down the hot corner for some time.
Corner Infield (1B/3B)
Most-owned: J.Ramirez, Rendon, J.Turner, Devers, Voit, P. Alonso, Cron, Kang, Flores, Bour, Candelario
FOMO: Arenado, Bellinger, Chapman
Fade: Baez, Carpenter, Donaldson, Hosmer, Desmond
Ended up with a few Jose Ramirez shares mostly because I drafted some teams from the 8 and 9 slot in mid-March, where he had fallen out of favor as a top-five pick. Much of that had to do with Twitter rehashing his rough batting average over the second half last season and his struggles with breaking pitches. At pick # 3, he was certainly no lock, but in the middle of the first round, he’s a solid value.
I didn’t end up with any shares of Javier Baez (3B, 2B, SS) nor Alex Bregman. Baez was a full fade for me at his price (18.3 ADP), as I had him ranked around 45 overall, myself. No issues with Bregman whatsoever, outside of the fact he wasn’t fully healthy in the spring and I truly don’t want a shred of injury risk with my first or second round pick. No issue with Nolan Arenado either since he’s a bona fide 1st rounder each and every year – I just never ended up taking him there, opting for guys who could at least offer a bit in the stolen base category. Lots of love for Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt, but alas, I had other targets in the second round.
Anthony Rendon was a no-brainer for me at his 45 ADP and I ended up with seven shares of him this season. He’ll be the brains and brawn of this Nats’ offense and should step into the lead dog role with another year hitting over .300 in addition to his first 30-HR season. Kris Bryant is a top-three MVP candidate for me this season as I’m expecting a big bounce-back year. Just didn’t end up with enough shares. Mostly because I ended up with draft positions where his 30-33 ADP range didn’t provide me with the opportunity to draft him. Though he wasn’t a flat-out target, I ended up with Joey Votto on my two big money teams with Rob (shared Main and Platinum) simply for the need of batting average at that point in the draft and the fact that regardless of what Statcast data points to, that Votto is a great value at 75 overall.
There were several top-100 overall corners who I basically skipped over. Guys like Eugenio Suarez, Matt Carpenter, Miguel Andujar and Travis Shaw offered very little value for me where they went. Andujar, I expect to regress slightly and Carp’s back issues always have me worried. Didn’t end up with any shares of Vlad Guerrero Jr. either, which is something I’ll likely regret – especially at his new ADP of 70 in late-March.
Justin Turner and Rafael Devers were two guys I ended up with several shares of in the 100-150 overall range. Sadly, Matt Olson was a big target for me as well, so with lots of exposure, I have to rely on the likes of Wilmer Flores and C.J Cron for now. Cron felt incredibly underpriced around ADP 250 for a guy with massive power hitting in the middle of a new and improved Twins lineup. Why pay a top-60 overall pick for Suarez when I get 80% of what Suarez can do 150 picks later?
Ended up with a ton of Justin Bour shares who will hit in the middle of the Angels lineup against righties and could easily crack 25 dongs this season. Jung Ho Kang ended up on several of my late-March teams, even before he won the 3B gig over Moran.
Middle Infield (2B/SS)
Most-owned: Altuve, Correa, Murphy, C.Seager, Hampson, Andrus, Polanco, Kike, Tatis
FOMO: Lindor, Odor, A.Rosario, Wendle, Goodrum, Gurriel Jr, Moncada
Fade: Albies, Torres (one of my most-owned guys last year but not sold at top-80), Senzel
Only two shares of the ever-polarizing Adalberto Mondesi – my first and last draft of the preseason. First one was at the FSTA back in January (fourth round) and most recently in my solo Main Event. Most of my teams are adorned with shares of Carlos Correa and Daniel Murphy in the 45-65 overall range. Murph could once again contend for the NL batting crown calling Coors Field home and Correa is just 24 years old and should finally live up to the hype of that rookie season so long as his back doesn’t bother him.
I paid little attention to the platoon split and spring competition between Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson and have blind faith in the fact that Hampson will swipe 30-plus and be a viable fantasy asset, even if he only logs 450 plate appearances. Elvis Andrus close to 200 overall felt underpriced for a guy who can go 15-20 (HR-SB) from the middle of the Rangers lineup in a scorching hot summer. Jorge Polanco as the leadoff man in Minnesota available after pick 220 is borderline criminal and I made sure to pounce where I could. I don’t stash injured players or minor leaguers often, but when I do, it’s someone of Fernando Tatis Jr.’s ilk who I believe (read: hope) gets the call to the majors in mid-April.
Among the guys who got away include Rougned Odor (second-half walk rate improvement), Amed Rosario (30 steals in his sleep this year) and I simply didn’t get enough shares of late-round value guys I liked in Joey Wendle, Niko Goodrum and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Outfield
Most-owned: Harper, Stanton, Benintendi, Puig, Pham, Dahl, Buxton, Peralta, Brantley, Nimmo, Meadows, Santana, Braun, O’Neill, Eaton, Grichuk, L.Martin, Pinder, Verdugo
FOMO: Trout, JD Martinez, Acuna, Hoskins, Conforto, Rosario, Eloy, C.Stewart
Fade: Marte, Cain, Robles (because of price and lineup slot), Upton, Bader, Mancini, C.Taylor, Bruce
Bryce Harper and Giancarlo Stanton are two guys I’ve invested in before and didn’t mind doing so in the 15-20 overall range. I’m one of the few crazies who has a slight preference to Stanton over Aaron Judge. Andrew Benintendi is the closest thing I have to This Year’s Yelich. Though it’s hard to imagine him hitting more than 25 homers this season, Beni could easily lead the league in runs scored. I have much less exposure to the big-3 Red Sox (Betts/JD/Beni) than I would have liked.
Yasiel Puig gained so much helium in March that I ended up with only a few shares. Don’t think many people know Puig as well as me – it’s really all a matter of if he can *finally* figure out lefties. He’s teased us for years and this may finally be the season. My most owned player this season is Michael Brantley who popped up as a top-35 hitter in my personal projections with a 90-15-95-16-.305 line. Available after the top-100 overall in every draft just seemed too good to be true and I pounced where I could.
Ryan Braun and Adam Eaton were two veterans I felt comfortable investing in for the price. Same with Randal Grichuk, who could shock the world and hit 40 homers with the Blue Jays this year. Tyler O’Neill is another guy I have over 60% shares of (Brantley and Brandon Woodruff are the others). The outfield in St. Louis is crowded, but I’m keeping the faith – as my 21st round pick in 15-teamers and 25th round pick in 12’s, there’s very little risk. Let’s see how much he plays at Milwaukee opening weekend.
Don’t think anyone drafted Domingo Santana at a wider range than I have this year. He was actually the reason I started my first NFBC DC back in December – so that I could get a cheap share. And cheap share I did get, grabbing him at 397 overall. I paid a 156-overall price for him in late-March and his ADP high in the Main Event was 123, especially with that grand slam already in the books from the Japan series.
Guys, I wish I had more shares of included Eddie Rosario and Eloy Jimenez. Two fellas who I grew more interested in, in March. Michael Conforto was much too popular for me to ever get a crack at. Christin Stewart could be sneaky good in his first big league season. I’m hoping he starts the year off cold so he temps current owners to drop him so I can swoop in.
Starting Pitcher
Most-owned: Sale, Carrasco, Paxton, Clevinger, Buehler, Bieber, Glasnow, Pivetta, Ryu, Strahm, Musgrove, McHugh, Woodruff, Anibal, Heaney, Stroman, Cahill, Keller, Lauer, Pablo Lopez, M.Kelly, Pena, Chirinos, Toussaint
FOMO: BAUER, Strasburg, Marquez, Wheeler, Darvish, Urias, Pineda, Junis
Fade: Snell, Corbin, Price, Mikolas, Archer, Paddack, Gibson, Lester, Porcello, Quintana, Reyes, D.Hudson
Could write an entire article on all these pitchers, but I’ll keep it brief. I’m utterly obsessed with Trevor Bauer this year, yet I didn’t end up with many shares (only a couple). Honestly, it’s because of where my draft position fell in most of my leagues. In my 12-team OC leagues, I never drew a pick higher than 8 overall, and usually started drafts hitter-hitter opting for Carlos Carrasco or Walker Buehler as my top pitcher in the third. I did set the NFBC high on Bauer in the Online Championship (16 overall) in a mid-March draft and also took him 17 overall (2.02) in the Main Event with Rob. Don’t be shocked if he’s baseball’s best fantasy pitcher in 2019.
Another guy I absolutely love is Mike Clevinger. Many say that “he’s not that good”, but I beg to differ for a guy who has maintained an ERA barely above 3.00 in almost two full seasons pitching in the American League. That AL Central is abysmal and Clev will see a lot of them this season. The Indians also have two series’ with the Marlins in April and if all breaks right in the rotation, he may get to face them twice!
Nick Pivetta is one of my biggest breakout SPs this year. The big concern with him is when he’s off his game, he can really do some damage to our ratios. Even so, I’ve got him for a career-best 3.49 this year, and am banking on 220-plus strikeouts and close to 17 wins. Tyler Glasnow I have on all four of my no-FAAB Draft Champions leagues that were mostly drafted in January and February, but as the price went up, I didn’t bite. Same with Shane Bieber who started hovering around 100 overall.
My mid-round loves include the aforementioned Woodruff who I have 10-plus shares of and expect to be a top-30 starting pitcher. Also, willing to go back onto the Marcus Stroman train but that has more to do with a good-looking schedule on paper in April. I didn’t have much diversity with my later-round pitchers, pretty much sticking to the same core of Brad Keller, Touki Toussaint, Trevor Cahill, Eric Lauer, Felix Pena and Pablo Lopez. Toussaint is a tough one to hold in 12-team leagues since we don’t want to carry dead weight on short benches and he’s starting the year in Triple-A. But I wouldn’t be shocked to see him promoted in late-April and end up with better all-around numbers than Kevin Gausman.
Fading Alex Reyes was really only a matter of his early-season relief role. Fading Dakota Hudson was based on a poor K-BB% in the minors and not buying into the helium. But Cardinals’ pitching coaches have worked magic with their guys over the years before. Fading Chris Paddack was pure stubbornness but taking a guy who projects for no more than 120 IP this year at 180-ish overall seemed foolish.
Relief Pitcher
Most-owned: Treinen, Osuna, Hand, LeClerc, Alvarado, Strickland, Strop
FOMO: Yates, Giles, T.May
Quite often this offseason, I’ve discussed the importance of securing reliable closers for our teams this season. Blake Treinen, Roberto Osuna and Brad Hand are my top-three guys this season and I was always sure to put myself in position to grab at least one of these guys when the closer runs hit. I was able to snag some cheap Jose LeClerc shares before the price went up after his contract was announced in early March.
Jose Alvarado is one of those rare lefty relievers and wasn’t ever even announced as “the guy” but to me, he’s one of the league’s most dominant relievers and that Tampa gig will be a valuable spot for a closer this season. Pedro Strop was another guy I invested heavily in with the assumption that Brandon Morrow never actually reclaims the job and will re-injure himself at some point. Strop is the Cubs’ best reliever and I hope they use him in the role all season. Trevor May should eventually claim that ninth-inning role unless Blake Parker somehow magically reinvents himself. Keep an eye on Ty Buttrey as a potential FAAB add if Cody Allen looks shaky early on. Stubborn-ass Scioscia is no longer running that team so if Allen is truly gassed, he won’t have the gig for long. Buttrey is a better pitcher than Allen already.
If you have any drafts left, hope my core group of targets can help you have more focus. In the meanwhile, let’s get those lineups set – and play ball!
