Caleb Smith was rolling last season racking up a punchout an inning. Than an injury happened, one that required him to miss half the season and undergo surgery. Given that he’s not an elite level prospect, that last season was cut short, and that he pitches for the Marlins, there isn’t much hype around his name right now. Should that be the case or is the lefty from the south worthy of more discussion?
27 years old
Bats/Throws: Right/Left
Height/Weight: 6’2”, 205 lbs.
Position: Starting Pitcher
THE NUMBERS
|
|
Level |
IP |
W-L |
ERA |
WHIP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
GB/FB |
|
20132 |
A, AA |
51.1 |
1-2 |
1.93 |
1.01 |
10.00 |
2.80 |
0.00 |
|
|
2014 |
A, A+ |
117.2 |
10-9 |
3.67 |
1.23 |
8.90 |
3.50 |
0.50 |
|
|
2015 |
AA, AAA |
135 |
10-7 |
3.47 |
1.33 |
6.40 |
3.70 |
0.50 |
|
|
2016 |
AA |
63.2 |
3-5 |
3.96 |
1.35 |
9.90 |
2.80 |
0.60 |
|
|
2017 |
AA, AAA |
100.2 |
9-1 |
2.41 |
1.06 |
9.10 |
2.80 |
0.70 |
|
|
|
Minors |
468.1 |
33-24 |
3.19 |
1.22 |
8.50 |
3.20 |
0.50 |
|
|
2017 |
MLB |
18.2 |
0-1 |
7.71 |
1.66 |
8.68 |
4.82 |
1.96 |
0.64 |
|
2018 |
MLB |
77.1 |
5-6 |
4.19 |
1.24 |
10.24 |
3.84 |
1.16 |
0.56 |
|
Career |
|
96 |
5-7 |
4.88 |
1.32 |
9.94 |
4.03 |
1.31 |
0.58 |
THE SKILLS
The punchout was evident as a big part of Smith’s game last season as he whiffed 10.24 batters per nine with an 11.6 swinging strike rate. Through 96 big league innings he has 106 punchouts and an 11.9 swinging strike rate. Smith also has a K/9 rate of 10.46 against lefties and a 9.74 mark against righties in his young career. There really is little reason to doubt that he can maintain a strikeout-per-inning pace.
During his minor league career Smith walked batters right about at the big-league average level from 2018. That number has climbed to the risky levels in the bigs at more than four per nine. No matter how good your stuff is, if you’re walking more than four guys in per nine, you’re open to some beat down efforts. Note that Smith walked 11 guys in 5.1 innings in two outings last season, but only four of 16 outings last season did he walk more than two batters. In fact, in seven of those 16 outings he walked zero/one batters. Yep, half the time he was nails, and half the time he was spotty with the location. Hence, the up and down nature of his performance to date. Refinement is needed, especially against righties where the mark is 4.54 per nine against righties.
Smith has pretty much always been a mid-40’s or higher type in terms of fly ball rates. It’s just his jam. Last season the mark went insanely high, nearly reaching 51 percent of batted balls. Even with his approach and skills, it’s really hard to believe he can’t lop a few percentage points off that rate this season. It would go a long way toward making me feel a bit more comfortable with Smith if the number was down at 45 percent or slightly lower.
Off the top, that’s a number I greatly dislike to see. That said, power arms often allow a lot of fly balls, it’s just the nature of elevating the fastball (see Justin Verlander). What does hearten me with Smith, in addition to his home park, is the fact that his big-league HR/FB ratio is just 11.2 percent and that is slightly above his work in the minors. There’s always a chance the number could climb a bit, and if it does, with so many fly balls being hit (49 percent of batted balls in his big-league outings), his HR/9 rate could explode. Therefore, one of the keys to his season will be that HR/FB ratio. Keep an eye on it. The ballpark, as broken down in Ballpark Factors, is a good place to pitch as it ranked 29th in runs (25 percent below average) and last in homers (35 percent below average). OK, it’s a great place to pitch. That suppression of homers is key for a fella like Smith who allows a good deal of fly balls, ok, a preponderance of them. In his young career he owns a 0.58 GB/FB ratio.
Let’s talk righty/lefty splits in a bit more detail. Here are some splits to consider.
|
|
K/BB |
HR/9 |
xFIP |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
wOBA |
|
vs. LHB |
3.88 |
0.68 |
3.69 |
.301 |
.347 |
.411 |
.330 |
|
vs. RHB |
2.14 |
1.56 |
4.91 |
.198 |
.304 |
.410 |
.306 |
Some interesting things going on here. His K/BB is near elite against lefties and sub league average against righties. His homer rate is half against lefties that it is against righties. So, he’s much better against lefties than? Well, not really. In fact, his overall marks are worse in average and wOBA. Overall, he’s pretty stable against both sides but righties have done a strong job at lifting the ball into the seats. Smith needs to curtail that to take the next step with the changeup likely be a key.
PLAYING TIME
The Marlins made a somewhat surprising move Monday, helping to clarify a murky situation with their pitching staff. The Marlins moved on from Dan Straily. They also chose to send Wei-Yin Chen to the bullpen, they need lefty help down there, which means that they will start the regular season with a rotation that looks like this: Jose Urena, Trevor Richards, Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez (Player Profile) and Smith.
Smith missed time last season with a forearm issue, but it was the oblique strain that crushed him, sent him to the operating room, and eventually foiled his season. According to the above report, there is a little bit o’ concern with Smith given that he’s eight months removed from a procedure that can take 9-11 months to truly overcome.
Here are his innings pitched marks.
2013: 51.1 innings
2014: 117.1 innings
2015: 135.0 innings
2016: 63.2 innings
2017: 119.1 innings
2018: 77.1 innings
There aren’t a lot of big innings here. Duh. In fact, there’s nary a 140-frame effort. Coming off surgery last year, getting there for the first time is a doable thing, but it’s nowhere near a predictable thing. Does he get starts skipped? Do they run him out there until his arm falls off? Do they limit him to five innings an outing? The good news is that he’s not an elite prospect, and he’s approaching his 28th birthday. He ain’t no youngster, so if they blow him out, I’m assuming the front office wouldn’t shed a tear. Still, it’s hard to expect 25+ starts this season from Smith.
AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA
As of this writing, here is the ADP data for Smith (since March 1st).
|
|
Overall |
Position Rank |
|
534.7 |
161st |
The Fantasy Guru Rankings can be found by clicking on the link.
CONCLUSION
The range of outcomes for Smith is rather substantial. The homer ball could continue along as his Achilles heel, and he could produce like a Dylan Bundy type in 2019. In fact, that’s a pretty decent comp if I were pressed. If he can figure a way to better attack righties, or to cut his walks down just a bit, he could become a Julio Teheran type with more punchouts. Given his free cost in all but the deepest of leagues, or in those fantasy leagues emanating from Florida, it might just be worth a reserve round kick of the tires in the hopes that a couple of incremental gains could lead to a pretty solid season from the lefty.
10-Team Mixed: I can’t suggest drafting him here. He’s a streaming option.
12/15- Team Mixed: The last arm on a pitching staff if you need innings or strikeouts. The ratios might be above league average though, so Smith is likely to be a good fit with a team that has those ratios in a pretty solid spot.
NL-Only League: A strikeout an inning, even if over just 135-innings, is likely worth investing here. Same time, there’s some Lance Lynn in those ratios, so understand that Smith isn’t someone to overpay for at the moment.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
