I don’t know about you, but over the past few years I’ve often found myself targeting Adam Frazier as a pick up in season when injury strikes. He never does much to get excited about, but he’s always been a useful substitute piece once players start visiting the doctor’s office with regularity. This season he will look to make his mark from day one as an integral part of the Pirates’ offense. Let’s review the value of the multi-position 27 year old heading into the 2019 campaign.
27 years old
Bats/Throws: Left/Right
Height/Weight: 5’10”, 180 lbs.
Position: Second Base, Outfield
THE NUMBERS
|
|
Level |
Games |
AVG |
HR |
RBI |
Runs |
SB |
OPS |
|
2013 |
A |
58 |
.321 |
0 |
27 |
34 |
5 |
.761 |
|
2014 |
A+ |
121 |
.252 |
1 |
42 |
62 |
14 |
.616 |
|
2015 |
AA |
103 |
.324 |
2 |
30 |
59 |
11 |
.801 |
|
2016 |
AAA |
68 |
.333 |
0 |
22 |
34 |
19 |
.827 |
|
2017 |
AAA |
3 |
.400 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1.038 |
|
2018 |
AAA |
32 |
.223 |
0 |
18 |
10 |
1 |
.586 |
|
|
Minors |
385 |
.291 |
3 |
140 |
201 |
49 |
.723 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2016 |
MLB |
66 |
.301 |
2 |
11 |
21 |
4 |
.767 |
|
2017 |
MLB |
121 |
.276 |
6 |
53 |
55 |
9 |
.743 |
|
2018 |
MLB |
113 |
.277 |
10 |
35 |
52 |
1 |
.798 |
|
|
Per |
162 |
.280 |
10 |
53 |
69 |
8 |
.767 |
THE SKILLS
The most obvious thing to say about Frazier is that he’s rather boring. You know the type. He kinda falls into that Ben Zobrist area of being a player that no one really feels bad about missing on draft day, but when the season is over the production, and flexibility, sure helped out many a club when those injuries strike.
Frazier has hit .275 or better each of his three seasons, and his career mark is .280. Amongst players with 900 plate appearances the last three seasons that’s 66th out of 259 qualifiers. Not great, but likely better than you thought I would bet (it’s two points behind Andrew Benintendi and the same mark as Javier Baez).
Frazier has an OBP of between .342 and .356 each of his three seasons and his three-year OBP is .345. Amongst players with 900 plate appearances the last three seasons that’s 74th out of 259 qualifiers (it’s the same mark as Jose Abreu and one point better than David Peralta).
Better than you realized, right?
Let’s look at his lefty/righty splits in those two measures.
|
|
AVG |
OBP |
|
vs LHP |
.286 |
.323 |
|
vs. RHP |
.279 |
.350 |
As is obvious, there just isn’t much to worry about in the batting average category, no matter who is on the bump. The OBP is a bit different, but with less than 1,000 career plate appearances overall I wouldn’t read too much into that as of yet.
How about those home away splits?
|
|
AVG |
OBP |
|
Home |
.306 |
.369 |
|
Away |
.258 |
.325 |
To this point he’s been a much better operator at home. Again, we don’t have a huge sample size to go on here, so I would suggest a word of caution in interpreting this data to suggest that he’s a lousy option on the road. It’s just more for reporting than anything else, but it is certainly something to consider when constructing your lineup each week.
Frazier owns a .313 BABIP that has been at .306 and .305 the last two seasons.
Frazier owns a career BB/K ratio of 0.57. The mark has been between 0.46 and 0.63 his three seasons.
Again, a whole lot of consistency.
Frazier has a 24.6 percent line drive rate for his career, and in two of three seasons he’s exceeded that mark. That said, the rate fell to 19.6 percent last season and given a career hard-hit rate of 30.8 percent, we’re looking at a guy more likely to settle closer to 20 percent than 25 in the line drive category. Given that the league average last season was just under 21 percent, we’ve got a pretty average option going on here in this category.
There is little reason to think that Frazier will not be able to continue along in the batting average and on-base percentage categories as he has to this point of his career.
Let’s talk power.
Frazier is not a power hitter. Isn’t, won’t be, etc. Frazier did raise the power stroke in the second half sporting a huge, for him, .533 SLG with a .228 Isolated Power mark as he jacked up his fly ball rate to 34 percent while virtually doubling his HR/FB ratio to 13.7 percent. He also pulled the ball a good deal more, with a 44 percent pull rate (career 36 percent), which is also encouraging if we’re hoping for a bit more pop. All that said, a strong homer season from Frazier likely wouldn’t result in more than 15 big flies, tops. He’s more than likely to be a 10-homer guy.
Let’s talk speed.
Frazier can steal a base, and a full season ow work could lead to 15 steals. More likely, he’s in line to be a 10/10 type of performer along the lines of a Joey Wendle type.
PLAYING TIME
Frazier appeared at second base 55 times last season. He also appeared in the outfield 36 times. He will qualify at both spots. With Josh Harrison out of town, Frazier should see all the starts he can handle at second base. As important will be his spot in the batting order – he will bat leadoff. If the team follows what is currently expected, we should be looking at a top of the order of Frazier, Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson and Josh Bell. When Gregory Polanco returns, he will likely slot in somewhere 2-5 with Frazier remaining in the leadoff spot. Obviously, those plate appearances for Frazier will be a significant boost to his value versus hitting lower in the order.
AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA
As of this writing, here is the ADP data for Frazier (since March 1st).
|
|
|
|
|
|
Overall |
Position Rank |
|
365.0 |
28th at 2B |
The Fantasy Guru Rankings can be found by clicking on the link.
CONCLUSION
Frazier isn’t a star, and it would take the earth spinning backwards for him to become one. That said, he’s got enough of an offensive game to take notice. Add in a spot in the leadoff role with the Pirates, and dual position eligibility, and you have a fine addition to any fantasy league with a wee bit of depth. Finally, he’s a decent late option in points leagues as well with his ability to get on base while limiting the punchout.
10-Team Mixed: He’s a reserve round addition at best here without the ability to be a big homer or steal threat. That said, there’s always room for a Marwin or Asdrubal type on a roster, isn’t there?
12/15 Team Mixed: A ideal reserve round addition for all the reasons listed above.
NL-Only League: A starter at second base that figures to do some really good things in at least the batting average and run scored departments.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
