As we enter the offseason, there’s a new format that’s emerged over the last couple of seasons which has caught the attention of many. In fact, it’s the preferred way to play for a lot of fantasy football enthusiasts. Best Ball.
Between DRAFT, Fanball (BestBall10s) and a few other established sites, there’s plenty of variety and fun to be had. Lobbies are open, ADPs have been created, and values have emerged. The goal of this article is to identify players that are currently undervalued (or overvalued) and will provide depth in the later rounds of best ball drafts.
Now that the chaos of free agency (and trades) has subsided, it’s time to invest some research in how this will affect the players on those teams. Last week’s review of the impact new signees will have on their team is only one piece of the equation. What players lost, or gained, potential opportunity with their new situations?
PLAYER VALUES
MARLON MACK (RB, COLTS) — BESTBALL10s ADP, 41.0
Mack is a player who’s caused hesitance in the past for a few reasons, but the Colts passing through free agency without addressing his position is a huge hurdle. Mack was a productive player at South Florida, producing 4,107 yards from scrimmage in his three seasons there. Mack is also a solid athlete, posting a 4.50 40-yard dash at the combine (75th percentile speed score). Mack also produced at a solid rate in his second season with the Colts, putting together 1,011 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns on 212 touches. Mack battled some health issues (only played 12 games) in 2018, but when healthy, was handed a borderline featured role. Counting playoffs, Mack was given 20 or more touches five times in 2018, and it was clear there was some confidence in his ability to succeed. The only real issues here are Mack was drafted outside the top three rounds of the NFL draft and has battled injuries in each of his first two seasons. While looking at something like draft position for this type of scenario can seem wonky, the main reason it’s important is because teams tend to not hand featured roles to low pedigree players. The Colts passing through free agency without even discussing bringing in competition is a fantastic sign Mack could be an outlier. Since 2000, only 15 RBs drafted in the fourth round have had a season with 1,000 or more yards from scrimmage, and just six have had more than one (Devonta Freeman and Lamar Miller would be familiar names). Mack already has one season to his name and would be in rarified air if he can sustain this for another. The draft will still be an incredibly important process to get through unscathed, but getting exposure to Mack feels safe at this stage.
ROBERT FOSTER (WR, BILLS) — BESTBALL10s ADP, 121.52
Free agency did not treat Foster well. The Bills were very active in pursuing wide receiver help in both free agency and potential trade opportunities before ultimately bringing in John Brown and Cole Beasley. Specifically with the Antonio Brown almost-trade, the Bills are pushing hard to surround their young quarterback Josh Allen with solid weapons. Foster played fantastic in 2018, building a role for himself that would appear to solidify opportunity for the coming seasons. However, this is another situation where draft position, or lack thereof, could come into play. Foster averaged an incredible 20.0 yards per reception in 2018, producing 541 receiving yards and three touchdowns on 44 targets. Considering the complete lack of success by the rest of the offense, that makes his numbers even more special. Unless it’s a Rod Smith, Adam Thielen, Miles Austin or Victor Cruz, it’s far and few between for an undrafted free agent to sustain a role in an NFL offense for multiple seasons. This is the harsh reality for Foster, and getting nudged down the depth chart if anything goes wrong is almost inevitable. Foster has a small room for error, considering the organization has nothing invested in him, so his fantasy value is extremely volatile. The Bills adding two weapons to compete for targets before the draft is a negative indicator, and if they decide to add a prominent prospect early (top three rounds), Foster’s 2019 value could be submarined.
NELSON AGHOLOR (WR, Eagles) — BESTBALL10s ADP, 160.8
The Eagles are becoming one of the best-run organizations in the NFL, and because of that, their acquisitions are easy to translate. Between trading a second round pick for Golden Tate, bringing in Jordan Matthews off the street, drafting Dallas Goedert in the second round of the 2018 draft and trading for DeSean Jackson early in the offseason, the Eagles are CLEARLY looking to reassemble their receiving game. Despite the chaos, Agholor has been a productive player over the last two seasons, producing almost identical numbers in 2017 and 2018 in spite of constantly shifting between two QBs (Nick Foles and Carson Wentz). Agholor had 62 receptions and 768 receiving yards on 95 targets in 2017 and 64 receptions and 736 receiving yards on 97 targets in 2018. Could he produce at a similar rate in 2019? Absolutely. The Eagles picked up Agholor’s $9.4 million option, so it’s clear he’ll be involved, but the competition for targets has never been stiffer. DeSean Jackson may be aging, but he was dominant in his 12 2018 games, averaging 18.9 yards per reception and accumulating 774 receiving yards. Jackson is still a very talented deep threat and should garner significantly more targets than anyone who was running deep routes for the Eagles in 2018 (Shelton Gibson, sort of). Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz will claim a significant portion of the possession targets, and all indications are Dallas Goedert’s role will expand in his second season. So where does that leave Agholor? It’s a tough question, and despite all the competition, Agholor should have some big games, as he did in previous years. But once a WR’s seasonal projections start teetering around or below the 600 receiving yard range, it becomes a real question if they’re an asset to get exposure.
MATT BREIDA (RB, 49ERS) — BESTBALL10s ADP, 95.1
This should be obvious. The signing of Tevin Coleman puts a major damper on the fantasy potential of Brieda and puts out many more questions than answers on his future. When healthy, Breida had the look of a special running back in 2018, producing 814 rushing yards on 153 attempts (5.3 per attempt) and 261 receiving yards on 27 receptions (9.7 per reception). Breida produced huge plays in almost every game and unquestionably earned himself future opportunity with how he performed. The big issue was health and his complete inability to stay on the field. Yes, Breida technically played in 14 games, but he left half, if not more, due to injury. Considering Breida is only listed at 190 pounds, there’s real future concern he’ll be able to stay healthy playing RB at that weight. The other dynamic is he’s an undrafted free agent, so investment-leverage is working against him. The injury issues between Brieda, Coleman and Jerick McKinnon are relatively similar, but the 49ers have invested more money in the other two. A few more injuries could create an odd-man-out situation in the weekly rotation, and even without injury, that’s still a possibility. Breida is too expensive at his current price (even though it’s steadily dropping) and shouldn’t be in consideration until after round 10.
