One of my favorite, late round dart throws on the board this season is Justus Sheffield (see my LABR and Tout Wars teams where he ended up on my squads). Sheffield was recently demoted to the minors by the Mariners, but that doesn’t dampen his prospects this season, at least in my eyes, as I was never expecting him to throw 180-innings in the big-leagues. So why am I intrigued by the lefty of the Mariners? Read on…
22 years old
Bats/Throws: Left/Left
Height/Weight: 5’10”, 195 lbs.
Position: Starting Pitcher
THE NUMBERS
|
|
Level |
IP |
W-L |
ERA |
WHIP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
GB/FB |
|
2014 |
RK |
20.2 |
3-1 |
4.79 |
1.60 |
12.60 |
3.90 |
0.00 |
|
|
2015 |
A |
127.2 |
9-4 |
3.31 |
1.36 |
9.70 |
2.70 |
0.60 |
|
|
2016 |
A+, AA |
125.1 |
10-6 |
3.09 |
1.28 |
9.30 |
3.80 |
0.40 |
|
|
2017 |
RK, AA |
98 |
7-7 |
3.12 |
1.35 |
8.10 |
3.10 |
1.30 |
|
|
2018 |
AA, AAA |
116 |
7-6 |
2.48 |
1.14 |
9.50 |
3.90 |
0.30 |
|
|
Minors |
|
487.2 |
36-24 |
3.08 |
1.29 |
9.40 |
3.40 |
0.60 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2018 |
MLB |
2.2 |
0-0 |
10.13 |
2.63 |
0.00 |
10.13 |
3.38 |
2.00 |
|
|
Baseball America |
Baseball Prospectus |
MLB.com |
|
2016 |
81st |
|
|
|
2017 |
91st |
52nd |
79th |
|
2018 |
41st |
57th |
48th |
|
2019 |
27th |
50th |
43rd |
THE SKILLS
The first thing to note is that the lefty is just 5’10”. There is some doubt about his ability to throw 180-innings years after year because of his size (and relative wildness). Yeah, kinda lame, but size does still matter, at least a little bit. The concerns about durability are also buttressed by the fact that his delivery has a little bit of work to it as it’s a wee bit crossfire with a less than ideal follow through that results in his trail leg causing his back to be exposed slightly to the batter at times (this is one of the reasons that some folks believe he might still end up being better suited working out of the bullpen than out of the starting rotation – another will be listed below). He does get good extension and follow through as well.
Sheffield attacks batters with the vigor of a reliever. He comes at batters with hard stuff, just reaching back and firing everything in his arsenal, with that high-leverage delivery. With the new line of thought, versus the mindset of years past, teams are more willing than before to let this type of guy start, get those 5.1 innings out of him, and then move things to the bullpen. The Mariners are giving Sheffield the chance to prove his approach can work as a starter, but he’s yet to fully put behind him the questions about how successful he will be at doing it.
Command is the biggest issue he needs to overcome. Though he’s clearly got the “stuff,” at times he loses control of the strike zone, especially with his fastball. That fastball sits in the mid 90’s on most days.
His slider has improved the last couple of seasons and now it has both run and sink giving it two-plane movement. The depth that he is starting to generate on the slider is a potentially exciting development. Mechanics, and the repetition of said mechanics, will likely go a long way to addressing whether or not he will be able to bury the pitch out of the strike zone on a consistent basis.
His change up has nice sinking action, but it comes in awfully hard at 87-88 mph. Ideally, you would want a change up to be about 10 mph off a fastball, so if he could take a little heat off this pitch, he’d be in a better spot (there just not enough separation at the moment leading to less than hoped for difference between the two pitches). Basically, Sheffield needs to learn the art of finesse and that it’s OK to back off on the velocity at times as hard, harder, hardest isn’t always necessary. The development of this third pitch is key. His attack the batter, hard hitting fastball/slider combo needs a softer side in order for him to excel as a starter. If he isn’t able to pick up the nuances of that third pitch, it’s possible he goes the way of Josh Hader and turns into a dominant middle reliever.
As for his work in the minors, Sheffield has struck out 507 batters in 487.2 innings. His stuff dictates that similar levels of production in the big leagues are to be expected.
Sheffield walked 3.4 batters in the minors. That level in the majors could work, but it’s still at a higher level than the big-league average, and clearly if he wants to give himself a legitimate shot to succeed in in the bigs it would behoove him to chop off a half point from that mark.
As for the batted ball profile, Sheffield has sat at slightly above the league average GB/FB rate through his work in the minors with a ground ball rate sitting around 45 percent on a consistent bases. Given the downward movement on his offerings, it’s a sustainable pace at the big-league level. Sheffield has also held batters to a total of 32 homers in 487.2 innings leading to an excellent 0.6 HR/9 rate that is almost half the big-league average. When he arrives in Seattle, he will be greeted by a stadium that ranked 15th in baseball in Park Effects in the homer category at roughly two percent below the league average (in 2017 the park was just 20th at 7.5 percent below the league average). The park should help him to keep the homer pace below the league average.
PLAYING TIME
He’s young, but in Sheffield’s young career there haven’t been anywhere near enough innings to feel totally confident that he’s gonna ramp this up in a substantial way this season.
2014: 20.2 innings
2015: 127.2 innings
2016: 125.1 innings
2017: 98.0 innings (missed time with oblique)
2018: 118.2 innings (missed time with shoulder tightness)
There’s nary a season of 130-innings at this point. He should be capable of tossing 150 frames this season, but he’s never done it so we’re just giving him the benefit of the doubt if we say he can, without any proof that he actually can.
AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA
As of this writing, here is the ADP data for Sheffield (since March 1st).
|
|
Overall |
Position Rank |
|
511.4 |
158th |
The Fantasy Guru Rankings can be found by clicking on the link.
CONCLUSION
Sheffield has an intriguing arm. As noted, he needs to develop his changeup to take his game to the next level, and to truly settle into the role of a starting pitcher. It’s quite possible he fills a hybrid role this season, being used as a starter and a reliever in the bigs, and that does dampen his outlook. Also, of concern is the lack of high-level innings on his arm. Still, when we’re talking about dart throws late, this is a name to focus on. It might take some patience to see a return on your investment, so it might also be worth putting him on your watch list while watching how it will play out. At the same time, if he’s called up to fill a starting spot with the Mariners, realize that there will be a lot of excitement in the fantasy game which will cause him to be rather pricey to pick up off waivers in a lot of leagues.
10-Team Mixed: He’s not worth rostering here until he has a gig in the rotation.
12/15- Team Mixed: He’s the last arm on your staff type. Even then, it will take patience to hold him, and with the plethora of injuries that everyone will be dealing with, it’s likely that if you draft him you will end up considering dropping him before he’s returned to the big leagues.
AL-Only League: Invest here. In this format if you get 120 high value innings, you’re going to be more than happy with the return. Even if that number in the innings column is 90, you will likely still see a nice return on your investment since many are likely to pass by his name.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
