Sin City.
Booze.
Blackjack.
Shows.
Lap dances.
The date – March 23rd, 2019. The reason for traveling to Vegas, the third weekend out of four that I’ve been on the road in March (LABR and Tout Wars were the others), was to participate in Main Event of The NFBC for the Beat Ray Flowers Challenge. What follows is how I attempted to start my path to winning $150,000 playing season long baseball in 2019.
THE RULES
15-teams, Mixed League
5 x 5 Rotisserie style scoring.
Hitting Categories – BA, HR, RBI, Runs, SB
Pitching Categories – W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV
ROSTER: 2-C, 1-1B, 1-3B, 1-CI, 1-2B, 1-SS, 1-MI, 5-OF, 1-UT, 9-P, 7 reserves
There is no injured list in this league. Injured players just take up a bench spot.
Each player will have $1,000 in FAAB money to spend on changes for his team.
The minimum bid on any player will be $1.
THOUGHTS BEFORE THE DRAFT
This section was written Friday, before I left for Las Vegas.
I have the 15th pick out of the 15 teams. As such, I tried to prep myself by taking a close look at the ADP of The NFBC since March 1st. Using those numbers, I complied a list of potential targets for my six selections. Here is what I came up with. Obviously, I have a list of hitters and pitchers for each of the three segments based on the ADP of the NFBC.
1st/2nd: HITTERS (Bregman, Altuve, Judge, Bregman, Harper, Story, Goldschmidt, Machado, Benintendi, Bryant) and PITCHERS (Sale, Verlander, Cole, Kluber)
3rd/4th: HITTERS (Bellinger, Rendon, Correa, Bogaerts) and PITCHERS (Berrios, Corbin, Taillon, Flaherty, Clevinger, Strasburg)
5th/6th: HITTERS (Abreu, Dahl, Haniger, Castellanos, Robles) and PITCHERS (Hand, Chapman, Jansen, Vazquez, Wheeler, Bumgarner)
The next determination needs to be – what will the makeup be of my squad in an ideal first six rounds? Vlad Sedler recently gave his thoughts on how to best handle those early round decisions in Draft Slot Strategies. As for what I will do… I’m thinking that through the first four rounds that I will have three hitters and one pitcher, and then see what happens in 5/6. Ideally, I’d probably end the first six rounds with four hitters and two starting pitchers. That would leave me four more rounds in the top-10 to take a closer and a starting pitcher in an ideal world (that would be six hitters, three starters and one reliever in 10 rounds). Of course, drafts rarely ever play out in an ideal manner, so all the draft prep might end up leading to something entirely different at the draft table.
MY ROSTER
*Round taken in parenthesis.
Catcher: Jorge Alfaro (19), Willians Astudillo (20)
First Base: Miguel Cabrera (10)
Second Base: D.J. LeMahieu (22)
Third Base: Alex Bregman (2)
Shortstop: Carlos Correa (3)
Middle Infielder: Willy Adames (18)
Corner Infielder: Ian Desmond (11)
Outfield: Bryce Harper (1), Wil Myers (6), Justin Upton (7), Jesse Winker (12), Adam Eaton (13)
Utility: Shohei Ohtani (15)
Pitchers: Jose Berrios (4), Zack Greinke (5), Madison Bumgarner (8), Wade Davis (9), Julio Teheran (14), Mychal Givens (16), Ryan Pressly (17), Alex Wood (23), Jeurys Familia (24)
BENCH: Matt Olson 1B (21), Kyle Tucker OF (24), Luis Urias 2B (25), Eric Thames 1B/OF (27), Carlos Martinez SP (28), Lance Lynn SP (29), Steve Cishek RP (30)
DID I FOLLOW THE ABOVE PLAN?
1 – I said I wanted a 3/1 breakdown of hitters to pitchers first four rounds.
Mission accomplished.
2 – I said I wanted a 4/2 breakdown of hitters to pitchers first six rounds.
Mission accomplished.
3 – I said I wanted six hitters, three starters and a reliever the first 10 rounds.
Mission accomplished.
So, I’m either predictable, or I had a good plan heading in.
THE DRAFT – HOW DID IT GO?
I’ve avoided drafting Harper for three years in any format. I sat there and nearly went Paul Goldschmidt and Bregman instead of Harper/Bregman. The ADP numbers suggested that Bregman wouldn’t be there, so I was more than happy to grab him, but that second selection at the turn was difficult. Following the theme, you will read about throughout, I went for it versus doing the stable Ray Flowers thing I normally do. We will see if I pay for that choice.
In round three I was all in on Anthony Rendon. He went one pick before me. Dang it. Correa has more of the proverbial upside than does Rendon, but the third sacker of the Nationals is a rock of performance/stability.
Berrios was the choice, barely, over Greinke and Jameson Taillon next. Remarkably, Greinke was still available in round five, so I was pretty darn pleased to also roster him, given the propensity for the NFBC to go heavy hurlers.
Thinking I could use some speed, I grabbed Wil Myers in the sixth. Honestly, I nearly pulled the trigger on one of my favorites – Upton – instead of Myers. Just like with Greinke earlier, I had the fortune of Upton falling back to me in the 7th round.
I drafted MadBum as my third starting pitcher, an absolutely ideal spot to take him in a 15-team league (I chose him over Corey Seager with the pick). This selection gave me as strong a top-3 in arms that I ever get and set me up well.
Through eight rounds, I pretty much had my ideal squad.
In round nine I was all in on Yoan Moncada. He went one pick before me. That really hurt. I don’t have any shares, but an greatly intrigued with the skills of Moncada (see his Player Profile). Turned out that second base ended up being a weakfish position for me – LeMahieu and Urias are fine, but neither owns the excitement of Monday – so the miss on Moncada hurt.
I’m not a Davis fan, but he was just about the last actual full-time closer on the board who could legitimately be looked at as a 30-save arm.
Miggy has always been one of my favorites. He burned me (and you) last season. I think, at this cost, he’s got an excellent chance to be a strong buy. He has looked tremendous to this point (Spring numbers: 1.165 OPS with five homers and 15 RBI in 19 games).
I had targeted Senzel for this round, but he went five picks before my selection. Ugh. Desmond has 1B/OF going for him, and much like Myers gives me an0ther, slightly under the radar, 20-steal threat.
Winker and Eaton aren’t an ideal duo since neither is likely to hit 20-homers, maybe not even 15 (on Winker see his Player Profile), but both men should offer tremendous batting average stability and Eaton can still run.
Ohtani is a risk given that he’s out for April. Still, if he’s back in May, there’s plenty to get excited about. Think about it. Without the pressure of pitching this season, might he be able to match what he did last year with the bat? He did post a .925 OPS, a 152 wRC+ and he can steal a base (10 on 14 attempts last season).
Took three arms in Teheran, Givens and Pressley. Givens isn’t an ideal second reliever but he, like Davis, was about the last trustable piece left on his tier for saves. Pressly is a dynamic middle relief arm, and he’s likely second in Houston in the pecking order for 9th inning work. Teheran has gained some muscle, and looked sharp in camp. Always one of my favorites.
With Bregman/Correa shortstop eligible, perhaps going with a third shortstop in Adames was less than ideal. I nearly went Niko Goodrum, and was fully intending to take him with my next pick, but alas, he was taken before I got the shot. Adames is another 10+ steal guy at least, to given me a bit more in that category without being exciting. I ended up with DJL and Urias at second base. I’m a big Urias fan, love his game, but it’s not a sexy fantasy game at this time. He will pick up shortstop eligibility as well which doesn’t hurt. DJL has a moderate role in terms of playing time, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get 450 at-bats by the end of the year.
I double-tapped catchers in 19/20. I got power in Alfaro, and average with Astudillo. Willians could be a big add, or just passable. There’s a chance he gets 450 at-bats this season, and if that happens, this a huge win. It’s also possible that he struggles his way to 250 at-bats. Regardless, it was worth the shot, and pushing the catchers did set off a run of backstops the next two rounds.
Olson – why? Miggy isn’t a lock to play all year, so having a backup was wise. Olson will miss 4-6 weeks with the hamate issue, and it’s possible it takes him time to regain his power. Still, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him hit 20 homers in the second half, would it? At some point, you just gotta take the risk. So, even though I’m not a big Olson guy, I felt I had to take the plunge. Note, before the injury, Olson’s ADP was about 109. In this draft he was selection #315.
Tucker was a shot in the dark. He’s a 20/20 talent, and I could use some speed. Playing time is an issue, but if/when he gets it, he should produce. Thames, you know I’m a fan there (see his Player Profile).
On the hill, I made one mistake. I was searching for saves, trying to find the next guy up fella, and I grabbed Familia. Totally fine with that choice, but I made that selection thinking that Anthony DeSclafani would fall. He didn’t. Mistake Ray. Instead, I had to pivot to Lynn, but I felt like I could use 160+ strikeouts and he was the last guy that I identified that could do it. Those ratios are scary though.
C-Mart (shoulder) seems likely to return in short order, but it might be out of the bullpen for a while. He’s 27 years old and one season removed from 205 innings and 217 punchouts. I’ll take the risk at this point any time (just as I did in Tout Wars).
Finally, Cishek. Folks are in on Pedro Strop in Chicago, but he hasn’t been a bastion of health this spring, and Brandon Morrow – who knows. Cishek could get some cheap saves, and many have seemingly overlooked that he won four games, had four saves and 78 punchouts in 70.1 innings. The last three seasons his WHIP is 0.99. A fine last round dart throw.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The NFBC is famous for people going heaving starting pitching early. Oddly, I didn’t feel that much at the draft table. What I did notice, quite readily, was the fact that folks seemed to be crushing the bullpens pushing relievers up fast, hard and heavy.
There was also a huge push for middle infielders as well.
I wish I had pick #11 to start the draft. I would have taken Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt. Would have been even more ideal than the duo I grabbed.
When you draft at the turn, as I did, you have to project out. Sometimes you can start the runs – as I believe I did (along with Team 14) – when we both decided to double-tap the catcher spot. Same time, if you don’t act a bit more aggressively you could be left out a bit when runs occur (kinda happened with the closers with me, though as you know, I’m comfortable being in that position in most leagues anyway).
So, my team… is RISKY.
I’ve done so many drafts, spent so much time thinking about things, that I was just at a point where I kinda thought – f-it. I’m just gonna go for it. If someone where to send me this team, here is what I would likely say.
Love the talent, but Wood/Martinez/Olson/Ohtani is really taking on a lot of risk. Toss in rookie like Tucker and Urias, and you’re assuming somewhat of a go-big-or-go-home approach. Could work out great, or could be dicey.
In fact, if you’ve sent me your team at any point you might have gotten a response to that effect at some point.
I will have to weather the storm early. If my team can break even for April, and in May I can add in a healthy Wood, Ohtani and Olson, and at some point, in June get Martinez back to starting for the Cardinals, this team will be in great shape. If those guys have setbacks, if Cabrera doesn’t resemble the hitter we’ve seen in spring and plays only 100 games, and if Upton’s early season health woes cut him down from being a rock of 150-games played, well, then I’m in big trouble.