FGE

DFS AAF Breakdown: Week 7

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Despite getting my teeth kicked in betting AAF last week (2-5), my DFS breakdown and especially the optimal lineup was once again spot on. What’s funny is that I was getting beat up so bad last weekend that I tuned out that final Birmingham/San Diego game thinking that it was just a bad week. Little did I realize that Iron WR L’Damian Washington was going absolutely HAM and single handedly propelling our lineups up the standings.

Between Washington and teammate RB Trent Richardson, we put up 60.8 points wound up again cashing in every single content on the Fanball site. For those keeping track, after another solid 12-5 record in winning DFS NFL cash games last season, we’ve now won an astounding six of seven weeks in DFS AAF this season. While part of me wishes we have bigger payouts to chase in AAF, I certainly am not complaining about the free money filling up my account every week.

For the season, the optimal DFS AAF lineup has scored 51.2 (was a very low scoring week), 18.6 (lost), 69.1 (win), 83.6 (win), 100.2 (win) and last week our highest score yet 108.62. Scoring was at an all-time high last week as several GPP lineups put up 120+ but our total easily was a top 8% lineup on Fanball last week. Here is the lineup with point totals according to Fanball’s scoring system:

QB – Garrett Gilbert, Orlando – 22.2

RB – Trent Richardson, Birmingham – 28.0  

WR – De’Mornay Pierson-El, Salt Lake – 8.7

FLEX – Tarean Folston, Atlanta – 13.1

FLEX – De’Marcus Ayers, San Antonio – 3.8

FLEX – L’Damian Washington, Birmingham – 32.8                 

                                                TOTAL: 108.6

The bad news is that this will likely be the last DFS AAF Writeup of the season. The MLB regular season has already begun and those that follow my work over on EliteFantasy.com know that my Cash Game Breakdowns over there are quite robust and require a lot of hours each day. I’d hate to half-ass either the MLB or the AAF writeups and quite frankly I am not capable of doing that. So, with just a couple of weeks left in the AAF regular season, I’ll put these to rest until (hopefully) next year when we can plan this all out better.

If anybody wants to talk DFS AAF with me over the final three weeks, PLEASE feel free to hit me up in our NFL Chat here at Fantasy Guru, the MLB Chat over at EliteFantasy and/or on Twitter @Jeff_Mans. I’d be more than happy to give you a few top plays each week.  

Remember that the spot to play DFS AAF is over at Fanball.

 

Here is the DFS AAF Breakdown for Week 7:

Orlando Apollos at Atlanta Legends – Saturday, 2pm ET

Orlando

  • The Apollos suffered their first loss of the season last week to the Arizona Hotshots, who used a heavy rushing game plan (38 attempts) and two turnovers (1 INT, 1 fumble) to pull the upset. Now that the blueprint of how to beat the Apollos has been drawn, we can expect the rest of the league to attack them similarly.
  • Orlando has the best run blocking offensive line and second best overall offensive line in the AAF according to PFF’s ratings.
  • QB Garrett Gilbert leads the league in fantasy points scored (139.2), passing yards (1625), yards per pass attempt (8.3), air yards (1970) and second in the league in TD passes (10) this season.
  • Atlanta has surrendered the most fantasy points to RB’s (173.5) and have given up the most rushing TD’s (9) this season.
  • WR Charles Johnson leads the AAF in targets (53) receptions (33), receiving yards (521) and second in fantasy points scored by WR’s (110.1) this season.
  • The Atlanta Legends rank dead last in the league in total pass coverage rating according to PFF. As a result, the Apollos own the best CB matchup (Jalin Marshall vs Carlos Merritt), the third best CB matchup (Charles Johnson vs Doran Grant) and the fifth best CB matchup (Rannell Hall vs Desmond Lawrence) in the league this week.

Atlanta

  • The Legends lost 40-6 to Orlando in week one, a game in which QB Matt Simms started and threw two interceptions before giving way to Aaron Murray who also threw an interception. In total, Atlanta turned it over four time in the loss.
  • Aaron Murray was atrocious last week in the loss to San Antonio. Murray could not hit the broad side of a barn, constantly over throwing his targets leading to three interceptions. He also lost two fumbles before being replaced by Peter Pujals in the fourth quarter. Murray is expected to get the start again this week.
  • Atlanta owns the second-best pass blocking rating and third best overall offensive line in the league according to PFF.
  • The way to beat Orlando is by running the football. Orlando has surrendered the third most fantasy points to RB’s (147.1) including the second most receiving yards to RB’s (220) this season.
  • RB Tarean Folston only carried the ball four times last week but did rack up over 13 fantasy points for the third consecutive week. Folston has caught 5, 6 & 5 passes in the last three games and has caught a TD in two of those games.

Best Plays

  1. Garrett Gilbert, QB, Orlando – $6800
  2. Tarean Folston, RB, Atlanta – $5600
  3. Jalin Marshall, WR, Orlando – $6100
  4. Charles Johnson, WR, Orlando – $7700
  5. Rannell Hall, WR, Orlando – $4800

 

Salt Lake Stallions at San Antonio Commanders – Saturday, 8pm ET

Salt Lake  

  • The Stallions have by far the best pass blocking offensive line and the top rated offensive line overall according to PFF’s rating system.
  • QB Josh Woodrum has scored the fourth most fantasy points of all players in the AAF this year and has the highest completion percentage (64.2) as well.
  • San Antonio has surrendered the second most passing yards (1510), second most passing TD’s (7) and the third most fantasy points to QB’s (109) overall this season.
  • RB Joel Bouagnon is now the Salt Lake workhorse since the injury to Branden Oliver. Bouagnon rang up 19 carries last week against Memphis though failed to get in the endzone for only the second time all season and first time in last four games.
  • San Antonio has given up the most receiving TD’s to WR’s (5), second most receiving yards (1062) and third most fantasy points to WR’s (218.2) this season.
  • Despite having only one TD this season, Salt Lake WR De’Mornay Pierson-El is third in the AAF with 28 receptions, fifth in receiving yards with 317 and fifth in WR fantasy points scored with 71.0. Pierson-El also owns the second best CB matchup in the league this week going up against the third worst CB in San Antonio’s CB Zack Sanchez.

San Antonio  

  • Over the last two weeks, nobody has scored more points that the Commanders who have put up 29 & 37 points respectively. They have done this with extremely good defense, creating turnovers and an efficient offense.
  • The Commanders secondary feature the top three defensive backs in the league in interceptions with De’Vante Bausby (4), Zack Sanchez (3) and Derron Smith (3) leading the way.
  • QB Logan Woodside is second in the AAF in passing yards (1189), third in fantasy points (83.8) and has thrown for 2 TD’s and a two-point conversion in back to back games.
  • RB Kenneth Farrow is just three yards behind Jhurell Pressley for the AAF rushing yards lead with 340 on the year. Farrow is also second in rushing attempts (87), fourth in touches (94) and third in fantasy points among RB’s (75.7).
  • Commanders WR Mekale McKay has scored TD’s in three of his last four games. McKay also ranks third in targets (42), first in red zone targets (11), sixth in receptions (21), fourth in receiving yards (354), second in receiving TD’s (3) and third in fantasy points among WR’s (76.4) this season. MeKay also has the fourth best CB matchup on the week going up against CB Henre’ Toliver who has given up the third most yards per route covered (2.0) this season.
  • Salt Lake has given up the second most fantasy points to WR’s this season (224.9).

Best Plays

  1. De’Mornay Pierson-El, WR, Salt Lake – $5800
  2. Mekale McKay, WR, San Antonio – $6400
  3. Joel Bouagnon, RB, Salt Lake – $6200
  4. Kenneth Farrow, RB, San Antonio – $6000
  5. Logan Woodside, QB, San Antonio – $5700

 

San Diego Fleet at Arizona Hotshots – Sunday, 4pm ET

San Diego

  • San Diego has scored the second most points in the AAF this season (140) and actually are averaging the most points scored per week since week two (27).
  • QB Mike Bercovici has logged back to back 300+ yard passing performances, the first QB in AAF history to accomplish this. Since being reinserted as the Fleet’s QB1, Bercovici is averaging 307 yards, 2 TD’s and 23.3 fantasy points per game.
  • Despite rankings third in the league in rushing yards (309), third in rushing yards per attempt (5.1) and fourth in fantasy points among RB’s (75.6), Ja’Quan Gardner is splitting the San Diego backfield with both Terrell Watson and Bishop Sankey. Watson received the exact same number of touches as Gardner (10) but was able to score two touchdowns in those touches.
  • Check the status of WR Dontez Ford who is said to be in a walking boot currently while dealing with two separate ankle injuries. Ford was balling out of control last week before getting knocked out of the game. If he sits, watch out for more snaps for Francis Owusu who had the go ahead TD late in the fourth quarter last week.
  • Arizona has surrendered the third most receptions and most receiving TD’s (5) to WR’s so far this season.

Arizona

  • The Hotshots pulled off a huge upset of the previously unbeaten Orlando Apollos last week and did so by enforcing a heavy rushing attack. Arizona used three RB’s, Jhurell Pressley (13), Justin Stockton (12) and Tim Cook (11) to lean on the Orlando defense. The week before in a loss to San Antonio, Arizona threw the ball 65% of the time.
  • San Diego has surrendered the most passing yards (1524), the second most passing TD’s (7) and second most fantasy points to QB’s (120.4) this season.
  • Keep an eye on the workload distribution in the Arizona backfield this week. Two weeks ago third stringer Tim Cook received nearly twice as many carries as RB1 Jhurell Pressley. Last week Cook got just two less than Pressley and one less than Justin Stockton. Cook makes for an interesting potential cheap FLEX option in DFS this week.
  • San Diego gives up the most receiving yards (1137), the second most receptions (79), third most receiving touchdowns (4) and the most fantasy points to WR’s (226) so far this year.
  • WR Rashad Ross had a quiet game last week against Orlando but he is still the second highest rated WR according to PFF, third most targets (42), second most receiving yards (452), most receiving TD’s (6) and most fantasy points among WR’s (116.2) this season.

Best Plays

  1. Rashad Ross, WR, Arizona – $7100
  2. Mike Bercovici, QB, San Diego – $6000
  3. Ja’Quan Gardner, RB, San Diego – 4700
  4. Richard Mullaney, Arizona – $4400
  5. Francis Owusu, WR, San Diego – $3600 *If Ford doesn’t play

 

Birmingham Iron at Memphis Express – Sunday, 8pm ET

Birmingham

  • Last week the Iron started Keith Price at QB then quickly brought back Luis Perez who went on to dominate to the tune of 359 yards passing, 3 TD’s and 34.2 fantasy points. Perez was a small school QB that posted arcade game type numbers against inferior competition. He has the potential to post those numbers in the AAF as he showed last week, so hopefully this was the motivation he needed.
  • The last time these two teams met the Iron shut out Memphis 26-0 led by Trent Richardson’s 2 TD’s. Perez threw for 252 yards in that game but didn’t record a TD. Birmingham threw the ball 33 times while running it 35 in a game they led throughout.
  • Memphis has given up the most passing TD’s (8) and most fantasy points to QB’s 120.9 this season.
  • RB Trent Richardson leads the AAF in rushing attempts (91) but is only 8thin rushing yards (227) this season. He has scored at least one TD in every single game this season and leads the AAF in TD’s with 10. As a result, he’s second in the league in fantasy points scored with 131.3, just 7.9 points behind Orlando QB Garrett Gilbert.
  • Memphis has surrendered the second most rushing yards (650), second most TD’s (7) and second most fantasy points to RB’s in 2019.
  • Memphis also has given up the most fantasy points to TE’s this season (88.9) which is 30 more than the next closest team. Give a bump to Birmingham TE Wes Saxton for this matchup.

Memphis

  • Johnny Manziel is a member of the Memphis Express but is not starting this game nor will he make any sort of fantasy impact this week. Do not play Manziel in any format!
  • The Express will start third string QB Brandon Silvers this week. Silvers threw for 242 yards and one TD last week but only led Memphis to 9 points. They are going to rely heavily on the running game this week against Birmingham.
  • RB Zac Stacy is third in the AAF in carries (86), fourth in rushing yards (304), fourth in rushing TD’s (3) and second in fantasy points among RB’s (79.5).
  • WR Reece Horn exploded for 10-8-129-0 last week against Salt Lake. This is important because it was new QB Brandon Silvers throwing him the rock this much which more than doubled any other target total Horn has had this season.
  • WR Daniel Williams also came out of nowhere last week racking up an 11-7-70-0 line against Salt Lake. Williams has the best CB matchup of all Express receivers this week as he will draw Jamar Summers on the majority of his routes.

Best Plays

  1. Trent Richardson, RB, Birmingham – $7800
  2. Zac Stacy, RB, Memphis – $6600
  3. L’Damian Washington, WR, Birmingham – $5700
  4. Luis Perez, QB, Birmingham – $5800
  5. Daniel Williams, WR, Memphis – $4900

 

My #1 Lineup

QB – Mike Bercovici, San Diego – $6000

RB – Trent Richardson, Birmingham – $7800

WR – De’Mornay Pierson-El, Salt Lake – $5800

FLEX – Jalin Marshall, Orlando – $6100

FLEX – Tarean Folston, Atlanta – $5600

FLEX – Francis Owusu, San Diego – $3600

 

AAF BETTING

San Diego Fleet:+2.5

 

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