Prior to last season, Pablo Lopez has never thrown a pitch above Single-A, yet in June he was in The Show. He made 10 starts before his shoulder was barking enough to get him sent to the sidelines. Three months ago, no one was talking about Lopez. If we judge his current level of interest by his ADP, outside the top-600 overall in the month of March, you might wonder why I’m even bothering writing about him. Well, when you get a ton of grounders, sometimes hit 95 mph on the radar gun, and have a smoking hot Spring Training run that might lead to you making a major league rotation, people start to take notice.
23 years old
Bats/Throws: Left/Right
Height/Weight: 6’3”, 205 lbs.
Position: Starting Pitcher
THE NUMBERS
|
|
Level |
IP |
W-L |
ERA |
WHIP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/9 |
GB/FB |
|
2015 |
RK |
37.1 |
2-1 |
3.13 |
1.15 |
6.30 |
1.40 |
0.20 |
2.21 |
|
2016 |
A |
84.1 |
7-1 |
2.13 |
0.91 |
6.00 |
1.00 |
0.40 |
1.40 |
|
2017 |
A+ |
145.1 |
5-11 |
4.15 |
1.20 |
7.50 |
1.20 |
0.40 |
|
|
2018 |
AA, AAA |
62.1 |
2-3 |
2.17 |
0.93 |
9.50 |
1.70 |
0.90 |
|
|
|
Minors |
396 |
23-17 |
2.93 |
1.05 |
7.00 |
1.30 |
0.40 |
|
|
2018 |
MLB |
58.2 |
2-4 |
4.14 |
1.26 |
7.06 |
2.76 |
1.23 |
1.75 |
THE SKILLS
Let’s start with something exciting. Lopez threw his heater at 92 mph last season. This preseason the heater is constantly sitting at 93-94 and he’s hit as high as 96 mph. That’s an exiting increase in velocity. The extra velocity doesn’t change the fact that he doesn’t have a plus pitch, though he has a strong feel for pitching and three above average pitches at his disposal (fastball, slider, changeup). He throws his heater 60 percent of the time, with that downward movement generating lots of grounders (see more below).
Lopez has posted a K/9 rate of seven per nine throughout his professional career. He posted a slightly below average swinging strike rate last season at 10.4 percent with the Marlins. Even with a few extra mph, it seems unlikely that Lopez is likely to crest eight strikeouts per nine, even in a best-case scenario. Face facts. He’s just a moderate arm, at best, in the strikeout column, and that will limit his upside even if he makes a season of starts (more on that below).
While strikeouts aren’t his game, limiting the walk is. Lopez has long been a dart thrower. Check out that mighty impressive BB/9 rate in the minors of 1.3 per nine. That’s stellar work. The number was double with the Marlins last season, but that was still a respectable level. Lopez threw a first pitch strike 63 percent of the time last season, above the 60.6 percent league average. That’s the good news, and it speaks to the potential of Lopez knocking down the walk rate a bit this season.
Let’s talk batted ball.
Lopez has long been able to induce a ground ball, his ground ball rate was frequently around 50 percent in his travels through the minors, something he continued to be capable of with the Marlins last season (he had a 50 percent ground ball rate in his 10 starts). He keeps the ball down very well. As a result, he’s rarely allowing the homer. That said, when he missed his spots last season, he gave up a lot of homers. His work at Triple-A lasts season was 1.45 homers per nine, while the rate with the Marlins was 1.23 per nine. The uptick in velocity should help a bit with that. It’s also likely that his 16 percent HR/FB ratio with the Marlins last season dips a bit this season.
His home park should help as well. As broken down in Ballpark Factors, Miami is a good place to pitch as it ranked 29th in runs (25 percent below average) and last in homers (35 percent below average). OK, it’s a great place to pitch.
PLAYING TIME
As of this writing, it sure seems like Pablo will end up in the starting rotation, especially after he tossed six scoreless innings against the Cardinals in his final Spring Training start. We think. Probably. Maybe. Here are the options: Jose Urena, Trevor Richards, Wei-Yin Chen, Dan Straily, Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith and Lopez. Obviously, there are high levels of competition for the five spots, unless they go with a modified six spot type deal. “We could use our bullpen in a way to blend guys into that to get guys rest and maybe slip them into the bullpen for a turn just to keep innings off of them,” manager Don Mattingly said. The team could use Chen out of the pen and as a spot starter, an especially attractive option given that they only lefty that’s a lock to make the pen is Adam Conley.
The truth is, Lopez is likely to be in the rotation, based on my read of the situation, but that’s only a tepid thumbs up. It has to be admitted that its quite possible that he breaks camp without a spot in the rotation, and that, even if he does, that struggles could lead to a demotion as the team clearly has other options to turn towards.
Here are his innings pitched marks.
2013: 66.2 innings
2014: zero innings (Tommy John surgery)
2015: 37.1 innings
2016: 84.1 innings
2017: 145.1 innings
2018: 121 innings
Obviously, there’s on season here of 125-innings and none of 150. This is another level of concern for those hoping for 30-starts this season from Lopez.
AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION DATA
As of this writing, here is the ADP data for Lopez (since March 1st).
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|
|
|
|
|
Overall |
Position Rank |
|
601.1 |
177th |
The Fantasy Guru Rankings can be found by clicking on the link.
CONCLUSION
When you speak of taking a young arm, coming off an injury, when said pitcher has workload concerns there is risk. Add in the uncertainty of his role, and you have yourself access to the proverbial dart throw. Add in that Lopez isn’t a huge miser of bats… I like the skills here, who doesn’t? The cost is also so low that you can take Lopez as your last mixed league arm, and if it doesn’t work out you can quickly pivot to another. If that’s your plan, I can give a thumbs up to it.
10-Team Mixed: Just not interested. He’s not worth drafting in this format given the concerns.
12/15 Team Mixed: I’m not drafting him in a 12-teamer, but I could see the thought process that leads to a dart throw in the final round of a 15-teamer. Again, I would be unlikely to take that shot, but I’m not going to look askew at someone who dips their toe in that pond.
NL-Only League: Yes here. Even if he makes half a season of starts, while seeing the rest of his work out of t bullpen, there could be enough innings of quality to be a usable piece.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday-Friday, 8-10 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). Follow Ray’s work on Twitter (@baseballguys) and be sure to listen to his podcast work too.
