Sometimes, it’s good to keep things in perspective. As each year (and draft class) rolls along, there’s an ever growing database of prospects that builds. While it’s helpful to evaluate players class-to-class, another very important factor is taking a step back and seeing where these prospects land in the big picture. WR prospects like Anquan Boldin or Calvin Johnson (let’s use pre-2010 prospect examples to not spoil the list!) are retired now, but even they were once college players who went through the draft process like everyone else.
There’s a lot of factors that go into evaluating a prospect resume, and it’s rare for a prospect to check all the boxes. This is a special list of players that rang multiple bells when they went through the evaluation process. You may notice a few players who didn’t work out or become superstars; that’s an unfortunate reality of the process. Whether it be off-field issues or injuries, some of the most enticing talents don’t end up coming to fruition in the NFL. NFL results are valuable but do not always accurately display the picture of what a prospect was. This is a great lesson in how little control there is over outcomes. All evaluators can do is create a good process and follow it. After that, the chips fall where they may.
Anyhow, let’s dive in.
BEST OF THE REST
First, let’s take a look at a few prospects who garnered serious consideration but ultimately fell a little short of the top-10.
- A.J. Brown, Mississippi (2019)
- Corey Coleman, Baylor (2016)
- Odell Beckham Jr., LSU (2014)
- Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh (2016)
- Brandin Cooks, Oregon State (2014)
- Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech (2010)
It would be really easy to use hindsight and instantly put Odell Beckham in the top five of the list, but his college profile was a little cloudy despite having many redeeming qualities. Beckham was a very productive college player but ultimately wasn’t quite as productive as some of the other players on this list. Battling through a run-first offense and bad quarterback play, Beckham had some mediocre games against stiff competition and didn’t send the full “I’m a generational prospect” signal. Beckham ended up testing out as a really solid athlete (98th percentile agility score, along with a 4.43 40-yard dash) and was selected 12th overall by the New York Giants. There are arguments that could be made Beckham is deserving of a top seven or eight ranking on this list. It wasn’t an easy decision to leave him out.
Corey Coleman is a laughable name nowadays, but after his junior season at Baylor, he’d created an incredibly special resume. Coleman had 20 receiving touchdowns and 1,363 receiving yards on only 74 receptions (18.4 yards per reception) in 2015, producing one of the most prolific college WR seasons of all-time. While he didn’t have elite early career production, his final two seasons averaged that out. Along with that, Coleman tested out as a 97th percentile SPAQ-x athlete at the combine, posting eerily similar athletic testing to the aforementioned Beckham. Ultimately, there were concerns by many scouts about Coleman and his lack of polish as a route runner, which have since been brought to light. While the dinner ended up being a disaster, Coleman had all the right ingredients to create a special meal.
Tyler Boyd was an incredibly special age-adjusted production prospect, and the only thing keeping him from being high on the list was athletic testing. Not only did Boyd not test well, but his athleticism was also bottom of the barrel. Boyd ran a 4.58 in the 40-yard dash at 197 pounds, posting a 33rd percentile speed score. After testing terribly in agility and jumping drills, Boyd ended the combine with a 17th percentile SPARQ-x score. Beyond that, his profile was immaculate. Boyd was a dominant presence on a college football field from his true freshman season and displayed an immense amount of versatility throughout his career. Not only did Boyd play multiple roles as a wide receiver, but he contributed as a runner and on kick and punt returns as well. Boyd went from playing a deep target role (16.2 yards per reception) in 2014 to playing almost solely in the slot in his 2015 season (10.2 yards per reception and 40 rushing attempts).
A.J. Brown, Brandin Cooks and Demaryius Thomas were all special prospects with great production on teams that were in power five conferences. All of them tested out in a solid fashion athletically (an elite fashion in Cooks case) and checked off all the boxes which indicate future success. Truth be told, the difference between the sixth and 13th prospect on the list is negligible. It’s essentially preference. Thomas blew the doors off the ACC in his junior season (1,154 receiving yards on 25.1 yards per reception), but there were concerns about his route running and how polished he was (Hilarious in hindsight). There’s currently concerns on Brown as a route runner (mostly played in the slot at Mississippi) as well, so it’ll be fun to track his progress over the next couple of seasons.
Top-10 WR Prospects Since 2010
- JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC (2017) — During the 2017 draft process, Smith-Schuster was not a favorite by many, but that doesn’t change how special his college career was. Most notably, Smith-Schuster’s sophomore season was arguably one of the best since 2000 for a power five conference WR, posting 1,454 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns on 89 receptions in the PAC-12. While there are certainly players with more volume in a single season, it’s important to note the only other player above 400 receiving yards that season was cornerback Adoree Jackson (414). Smith-Schuster displayed immense potential in all three layers of the receiving game, and also established himself as a player who can be a featured weapon in an offense. While he didn’t possess elite athletic ability, his incredible talent, versatility and innate sense of how to get open were apparent. Smith-Schuster was also one of the youngest WR prospects to roll through college football over the last decade, joining Brandin Cooks as a 20-year-old draft day selection. Smith-Schuster stepped onto a college field as a 17-year-old true freshman and commanded a significant portion of the offense with other highly touted players on the roster (Nelson Agholor and a former five-star high school recruit George Farmer). Smith-Schuster posted a 71st percentile speed score and a 68th percentile agility score at the combine, eventually being selected in the second round of the 2017 NFL draft. Despite having a down junior season (compared to his sophomore season), Smith-Schuster falling to the second round was one of the most inexplicable drops of the decade.
- N’Keal Harry, Arizona State (2019) — While he’s certainly received bundles of criticism throughout his final season and up to the combine, Harry is one of the more undeniable ball-skill based prospects to come along this decade. Despite having some perceived issues with separation, Harry was a dominant force on Arizona State for each of his three seasons, producing 3,033 yards from scrimmage and 25 touchdowns. Harry was a hulking mass of a WR in college, carrying a bad Arizona State offense to mediocrity. Harry suffered through bad quarterback play throughout his career, and there were games where incredible emphasis was shifted in his direction by opposing defenses. Harry displayed versatility as a runner, punt returner and slot weapon as well throughout his career. Arizona State did do a great job of finding unique ways of getting Harry the ball, and it was fascinating to watch a 228-pound WR use short screens and after-the-catch ability to his advantage. Harry put to bed any speed concerns at the combine, posting a 4.53 40-yard dash (89th percentile speed score). Through three college seasons, Harry passed through with no major injuries or off-field issues. It’s unclear where he’ll land in the 2019 draft, but he’s certainly put together an appealing resume.
- Marqise Lee, USC (2012) — It’s probably surprising to see Lee’s name anywhere near a top WR prospect list, but he was incredible. If not for multiple lower-body injuries (which obviously followed him to the NFL), Lee could’ve been a top-20 NFL draft selection. Lee burst onto the scene as a freshman, posting 1,143 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns on 73 receptions. Despite Robert Woods outproducing him in 2012 (Lee’s freshman season) and having a season of experience on him, Lee stole the lead target-share role from him in his sophomore season, producing 1,827 yards from scrimmage (1,721 receiving yards) and 14 touchdowns on 131 offensive touches. That’s not even accounting for 856 kick return yards. Lee was a star shining brightly, making defenders look silly after the reception and showing skills at all three levels. Lee’s final season at USC was marred by ankle issues, and lackluster quarterback play (moving from four-year starter Matt Barkley to freshman Cody Kessler was a tough transition) created a negative perception of Lee as a prospect. Lee’s final season left a sour taste in a lot of evaluators mouths. Lee tested out as a solid athlete (69th percentile SPARQ-x score) at the combine which, when combined with the other factors, ultimately led to him being drafted in round two of the 2014 NFL draft. Lee has consistently been hurt in his five-year NFL career, and it’s a fair statement to say Lee has never been able to reach his ceiling because of that (ankles and knee injuries as the main issues).
- Mike Evans, Texas A&M (2014) — Evans was a really straightforward prospect. He was enormous (was listed at 6 foot 6 and 225 pounds for Texas A&M), fast (posted a 96th percentile speed score at the 2014 combine) and incredibly prolific per reception (20.2 yards per reception in 2013). He accomplished it all at a young age (Age 21 rookie season) and did it all in the toughest conference in college football (SEC). While he certainly wasn’t appealing as an after-the-reception threat, Evans profiled as a dominant deep threat prospect and has fully come to fruition through five NFL seasons. Evans never had injury or off-field issues in college, further nailing down his status as a top-end wide receiver prospect. No need to overthink this diamond.
- Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State (2012) — Blackmon was a special wide receiver prospect, and his off-field issues claiming his career is incredibly disappointing. After playing a part-time role in his freshman season due to Dez Bryant being the alpha-omega, Blackmon jumped into a featured role in his sophomore and junior seasons. Blackmon produced 3,304 receiving yards, 233 receptions and 38 receiving touchdowns in those final two seasons, displaying everything that could be asked for as a top-end wide receiver prospect. Blackmon worked on all levels of the field and displayed the ability to catch away from his body in tightly contested situations. Blackmon shined as a route-runner and gaining separation quickly on short routes. Blackmon had a thick frame (listed at 6 foot 1 and 210 pounds) that he used in a variety of ways, most notably, running over cornerbacks. Blackmon was undeniably talented, and barring injuries or off-field issues, was destined to be a featured weapon on an NFL team. Through 20 NFL games, Blackmon was just that for the Jacksonville Jaguars, producing 1280 yards on six touchdowns on 93 receptions. Blackmon was suspended for four games to start the 2013 season, played in four games, and then got suspended again for the rest of the season. That was the last time NFL teams heard from Blackmon, as he took himself off the map and stopped communicating with the Jaguars front office. While his NFL career flamed out quickly, he’ll never be forgotten as a tremendous NFL prospect. Blackmon could’ve been higher on this list, but ultimately, the off-field issues were talked about in depth during his evaluation process.
- Amari Cooper, Alabama (2015) — As we get closer to the top, the prospects get easier and easier to evaluate. Cooper had everything. Pedigree? Check (Alabama). Produced against top competition? Check (SEC). Produced from a young age? Check (1,000 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns as a true freshman in 2012). Solid Size? Check (listed at 6 foot 1 and 210 pounds). Solid athleticism? Check (91st percentile speed score and 97th percentile agility score). Well, that was probably an annoying format to read, but hey, listing those resume boosters is an important part of the story. Cooper was incredibly dominant in his final season as well, posting 1,727 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns on 124 receptions. With no major injuries or off-field issues to his name, this is about as easy as it gets, and while his NFL career hasn’t been as good as some hoped, his trajectory is still careening towards a special career.
- Sammy Watkins, Clemson (2014) — Watkins entered an offense with DeAndre Hopkins, Dwayne Allen, Jaron Brown, Martavis Bryant, Adam Humphries, Andre Ellington and Charone Peake and INSTANTLY became the best player. Watkins led Clemson in receiving yards in his freshman season, producing 1,219 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns on 82 receptions. That’s not even mentioning his 231 rushing yards (on 32 attempts) and 826 kick return yards. Watkins showed everything as a true freshman in a major conference (ACC). After that point, there wasn’t much to prove. Watkins did run into some injury issues in his final two seasons but was still incredibly productive. Watkins ended his career with 3,730 yards from scrimmage and 1,376 return yards. Watkins didn’t have amazing athletic testing but did post an 89th percentile speed score at the 2014 combine. Watkins NFL career has not gone as planned, but there have been moments and stretches which display immense potential. Watkins hasn’t played a full season since his rookie year in 2014 and hasn’t been above 600 receiving yards in a season since 2015.
2. (A) Julio Jones, Alabama (2011) and 2. (B) A.J. Green, Georgia (2011) — These two are a package deal. They came through the high school ranks together as five-star recruits; they dominated the SEC for three years together; they both went in the top five in the 2011 NFL draft, and they’ve dominated the NFL for the last decade. While they come in very different packages, both players brought incredibly special, once-in-a-generation skill sets to the table. Jones was the elite athlete of the two, and it was incredibly obvious from his freshman season. Jones entered his freshman season built like the specimen he is today on the Atlanta Falcons (6 foot 3 and 220 pounds). There was nothing college defenders could do to stop him, and the only thing to ever hold him back statistically was his team’s offense. Between Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson and the dominant Alabama defense, there was little reason to exert extra energy passing the ball most of the time. Jones dominated his share of the Alabama receiving pie but never stuck out statistically from a volume standpoint. Despite that, Jones was a transcendent talent from day one, and it didn’t take him running a 4.39 40-yard dash at 220 pounds at the combine to know he had a different level than almost all athletes. Green posted similar production but went about it in a much different way. Green, much like his NFL career, played like a basketball player, dominating on deep targets with his incredible wingspan (34 and 3/8 inch arms). Green never produced 1,000 receiving yards, mostly due to a run-heavy Georgia system. Green tested out as a solid athlete (86th percentile speed score and 62nd percentile agility score), and with no major injuries or off-field issues, locked himself into a top-five selection.
- Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State (2010) — The crown jewel of the (my) prospect collection. Bryant was one of the most dominant football PLAYERS in college football history, not just WR. Throughout his college career, he displayed unguardable deep-target ability, unfathomable speed and elusiveness for his size and an incredibly special production profile. Bryant’s ceiling season was 2008 where he posted 1,480 receiving yards and 19 touchdowns on 87 receptions (17.0 yards per reception). Not only was this one of the most prolific single seasons in college football history, but the way he went about it was awe-inspiring. Bryant also added 405 return yards in that year, returning two punt returns for touchdowns. The idea of a 6 foot 2, 228 pound Bryant returning punts in college is arguably the most ludicrous part of his college resume. Bryant’s career ended early after the NCAA ruthlessly suspended him for an irrelevant autograph signing session (I’m not bitter), but in those first three games of the season, Bryant was setting up a season for the ages. Bryant produced 323 receiving yards and four touchdowns in his first three games, which includes two touchdowns against a dominant Georgia secondary. Bryant tested out well (74th percentile speed score and a 90th percentile burst score) and, despite the awful stigma the NCAA put on him, still ended up being selected in round one of the 2010 NFL draft. Bryant only had a three-year prime before things took a downturn in the NFL, but in those three seasons, he displayed the ceiling that made him the best prospect since 2010.
Annnnnd scene!
